Trying to Zestimate home values based on data gathered from public sources and plugged into an algorithm is a pretty tall order. And doing so in the Catalina Foothills where even on the same street homes values can vary widely, seems next to impossible. But that’s the much ballyhooed goal Zillow set for themselves.
And since I haven’t pestered them in a while and it’s pretty hot and slow out there I thought this would be a good time to do it. So I pulled all the recent sales in the Catalina Foothills for homes listed at $700,000 and Up (13 since July 1st) and following are the actual sold prices v. Zillow’s Zestimate along with the % difference.
You may have a different opinion, but the way I look at it, if the Zestimate is within 5% of the sold price it’s a bulls eye, a BINGO!
5121 E Oakmont Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718, a foreclosure, sold for $781,000
Zestimate; $978,370 / 25% higher
2291 E Placita Sin Muerte, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $700,000
Zestimate; $862,448 / 23% higher
4239 N Via Bella Catalinas, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $680,000
Zestimate; $870,378 / 28% higher
5735 E Finisterra, Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $739,000
Zestimate: $750,168 / 1.5% higher BINGO!
6745 N Catalina Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $715,000
Zestimate; $614,131 / 14% lower
2985 E Manzanita Ridge Place, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $759,000
Zestimate: $755,426 / .5% higher BINGO!
4419 E Quivira Place, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $745,000
Zestimate: $759,621 / 2% higher BINGO!
5680 E Paseo Del Fuente, Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $800,000
Zestimate: $752,348 / 6% lower, close but no BINGO!
7261 E Ventana Canyon Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $1,035,000
Zestimate; $1,197,745 / 15+% higher
4435 E La Paloma Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $1,020,000
Zestimate; $915,505 – 10% lower
5372 E Gleneagles Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $1,270,000
Zestimate; $1,370,154 / 8% higher
4076 N Sabino Mountain Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $1,450,000
Zestimate; $828,010 / 43% lower
7707 N Ancient Indian Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $1,450,000
Zestimate; $1,517,234 / 4+% higher BINGO!
So 4 BINGO’s, 1 awfully close but no BINGO, and 8 that are anywhere from 8 to 43% off the mark. Not a stellar performance. Overall it’s clear that Zillow is more bullish, and sometimes much more bullish, on the foothills market than buyers or sellers.
Or, how bout this. Rather than being too bullish or just plain wrong, perhaps it’s because the algorithm is ahead of the curve and we’ll soon see the higher prices it’s predicting. Aha!
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