TheTucsonFoothills

it's half-time for home sales in the Tucson Foothills

With the first half of the year behind us, and a solid six months of home sales under our belts we can now get a clear picture of where we are with both sales and prices for homes in the Tucson Foothills, vs. last year.
These figures are for single family homes sold through the Tucson Association of Realtors® Multiple Listing Service.  

Price Range	Jan - June 07     # SOLD	Jan - June 08    # SOLD	+/-%
$0 - $250K	5	7	+40%
250 -$500K	128	127	-.78%
500 -$750K	119	92	-22%
750 -$1.0m	47	43	-8.5%
1.0 -$1.5m	34	20	-41%
1.5 -$2.0m	15	7	-53%
$2.0 & UP	8	6	-25%
Total Sold	356	302	-15%
	2007	2008
Avg List $	$738,277	$685,073	-7.2%
Avg Sold $	$705,430	$644,948	-8.5%
Median List	$579,700	$554,500	-4.3%
Median Sold	$550,978	$535,000	-2.8%
$$ Value of Homes Sold	$251,132,934	$194,774,381	-22%

Since the beginning of this year we've seen a slow, steady decline in both the number of homes sold and in the average and median sold prices vs the same period last year.

For January & February, sales were down 10% vs last year, but the average and median sold prices were in solid positive territory,
UP +16% and +1.2% respectively.

A month later, for January thru March, sales were down -11.5%, and the average and median sold prices, while still positive, were less so, UP +5% & +.23% respectively.

By the end of April, sales were down 11.7%, and average and median sold prices first dipped into negative territory, at -2.7% and -.92% respectively.

In this latest period, sales are down -15%, and the average sold price is now down a solid -8.5%, with the median down -2.8%.
Those are the average sales numbers for the Tucson Foothills as of June 30, 2008.

But these averages are just that, averages. And the % of plus or minus in both sales and prices will vary depending on your price range, type of home, location within the Foothills, and other factors.
See my earlier post prices are up, prices are down for an example of how the averages vary by price range. And look at inventory levels vs recent sales for your price range, for an indication of where that segment of the market may be headed in the near future.

And please, if you hear media reports that sales are down in Phoenix, Vegas or Tucson by XX%, those numbers are for Phoenix, Vegas or the greater Tucson metro area. They're not for the Tucson Foothills.

Have a great 4th of July!

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

beware of comcast, part 2

In an earlier post beware of Comcast I railed on about the poor TV reception we were getting from Comcast. It got so bad that we didn't want to sit down and watch TV for fear that it would end in frustration, because the picture continually froze, or disappeared completely. On off on off, all evening long.
During the month of June I called Comcast at least 10 times trying to get someone to fix the &^&%^& service.
One of the Comcast customer service reps that I spoke with, on the 4th or 7th call, offered that he had lived in 4 or 5 different houses, all with Comcast service, and had never had a problem. Kind of accusing me of making this all up, would you say. Despite that, they sent 4 different tech service guys here, 4 different times to fix the problem. And all of them were very nice, and seemed concerned, and did their best to solve the problem.

Nevertheless, after the first three tries, we were still having the same crappy service. But fourth guy finally got it. Thank goodness.
This was beginning to feel like one of those hobbies that you take up, and are now committed to, and now dread.
It took about three weeks, but everything's fine now.
And there was no great technical hurdle that Comcast had to leap either. The fourth service guy simply replaced the cable from the main box outside our house to the TV's inside our house. That was it. Presto!

What an ordeal. 3rd world tv service, and then you've got to hang around and wait for the tech guys to show up each time.
4 different times. 'someone will be there between 2 and 4'

So I was very surprised when the Comcast bill arrived for June, and they hadn't deducted a penny. Not a cent.

I was intrigued, and I had to get Comcast's thinking on this.
So I gave them a call and spoke with Crystal, and explained the entire situation. And to add insult to injury, Crystal, who is a supervisor at Comcast, offered to deduct the princely sum of $27.00 from our bill. She explained that since I had called Comcast 10 times in June, they would pro rate my bill and deduct the appropriate amount, $2.70, for each time I called. Do you believe that. I suggested that Crystal keep the 27 bucks.

If they're going to be that miserly, it might at least make a bit of sense to look at the number of days from the first time I called about the problem, to the day that the problem was finally solved, and then compute their $2.70/day based on that number of days. Which was probably 23 to 25 days. Whatever!

I'm sure these Comcast people aren't (that) ignorant, they just don't give a damn. They don't have to. They're a monopoly in the markets they're supposed to serve.
Comcast is the only choice where I live, and that's true for most consumers. And that stinks, just like their service.
Beware of Comcast.

9 ways to look at $/sq.ft. in the Tucson Foothills

In yesterdays post 9 fast facts for Tucson Foothills homes, I noted that the average $/sq.ft. cost for the 291 homes sold in the Foothills this year was $220.91/sq.ft. And a reader commented that "it would be interesting to know more about recent actual selling prices per square foot, ..."

OK, lets's do more $/sq.ft.
The $/sq.ft. costs below are for homes sold in the Tucson Foothills
from 1/1/08 - 6/29/08, and the same period in 2007 where applicable.

I came up with 9 ways...

By Price Range;

Price Range	2007	2008
$0 - $500K	$199.77/sq ft	$179.05/sq ft
$500K - $1.0m	$238.78	$233.57
$1.0 - $1.5m	$304.79	$286.95
$1.5 - $2.0m	$342.40	$397.52
$2.0 - UP	$417.77	$418.53

By Gated/Golf course communities;
- Homes sold in La Paloma, Skyline CC and Ventana CC -
   2007 = $276.60/sq.ft.,   2008 = $279.82/sq.ft.

By Gated or Non-Gated communities;
- Gated communities = $262.53/sq.ft.
  Non-Gated communities  = $200.49/sq.ft.

By size;
-  0 to 3000 sf = $202.10/sq.ft.
   3001 sf & up = $260.96/sq.ft.

By Year built;
- built 1999 or before = $208.24/sq.ft.
  built 2000 or after   = $259.45/sq.ft.

By levels;
- One story homes = $225.85/sq.ft.
  Two story or more = $200.60/sq.ft.

By construction method;
- Frame Stucco built homes = $221.45/sq.ft.
   Masonry built homes        = $235.07/sq.ft.

By School District;
- District 16 homes = $227.01/sq.ft.
- non-District 16    = $212.06/sq.ft.

By Pool or no Pool;
- Homes with a pool = $237.76/sq.ft.
                 No pool = $201.98/sq.ft.

**this data is for single family homes only - no town homes, no condos - sold in the Tucson Foothills Jan 1 - June 29, 07 & 08. All data was gathered from the Tucson Association of Realtors® Multiple Listing Service.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

9 fast facts for Tucson Foothills homes

1. 558 homes for sale

2. 291 sold since 1/1/08 vs. 355 same period last year = -18%

3. 97 sold in gated communities, 194 sold in non-gated areas

4. 234 single story homes sold & 57 two story homes sold

5. 154 homes sold had a pool, 137 did not

6. The average sale price is $649,091 vs $706,452 last year = -8.1%

7. The median sale price is $535,000 vs $551,480 last year = -2.98%

8. Avg sale price=$662,788 in District 16, $629,011 out of District 16

9. Avg $/sq.ft. = $220.91 vs $239.11/sq.ft. last year =  -7.6%

**this data is for single family homes only - no town homes, no condos - sold in the Tucson Foothills Jan 1 - June 29, 07 & 08.
All data was gathered from the Tucson Association of Realtors® Multiple Listing Service.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

short sales in the Tucson Foothills

This morning I did a thorough search in the MLS for short sales, REO's, bank owned, auction or foreclosure properties that are For Sale in the Tucson Foothills. I found 14. (**single family homes only**)

Most of them are listed as short sales, one REO, and none were listed as going to auction.

Under those same distressed sale categories I found eleven homes that are under contract, and six that have sold in the last six months.

Including those for sale, under contract and sold, the prices range from $257,500 to $1,195,000. 

Then I checked out Realty Trac, and they show more distress sale properties in the Foothills that don't show up in the MLS.

Using their data I entered the addresses in the MLS, and found that in some cases there was a home for sale at that address, and in some there wasn't. But of those that I checked that are for sale in the MLS, there was no indication in any of the listing data that the property was a bank owned, auction or short sale.

And that's odd. Because it's usually not something the bank wants to keep secret. They want to sell the house, and people are attracted to short sales because there may be an opportunity for a bargain.
But I suppose it's possible that with some of these properties, the short sale or foreclosure action is in the works and on the horizon. 

Amongst the 14 properties that are for sale is one that is a new builder spec home, and a nice one too.

Contact me for more info on any of these homes.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

prices are up, prices are down

In a post the other day (we've had our ups and downs in the Tucson Foothills, but) I reported that average sale prices in the Tucson Foothills are down 6.9% this year vs. same period last year, and median sale prices are down 2.3%. And that's not too bad, considering.

But that's just the average for all 286 single family homes that have sold in the Foothills this year, priced from $195,000 all the way up to $3,100,000. And with such a wide range of prices, you can bet that different price ranges are feeling the pinch, or not, to different degrees.
So here's a look at the # of homes SOLD, plus Average & Median Sale prices, and the % increase or decrease, for single family homes SOLD in the Tucson Foothills, for the period of 1/1/08 - 6/25/08 vs same period last year, for different price ranges. 

Price Range	2007	2008	% +/-
0 - $500k # SOLD Avg SOLD $$ Med SOLD $$	127 $393,602 $400,000	126 $374,630 $373,500	- .7   -4.8   -6.6
$500 - $1.0m # SOLD Avg SOLD $$ Med SOLD $$	154 $672,912 $652,500	127 $694,986 $660,000	-17    +3.2    +1.1
$1.0 - $1.5m   # SOLD Avg SOLD $$ Med SOLD $$	29 $1,239,090 $1,235,000	19 $1,179,539 $1,100,000	-34     -4.8     -11
$1.5 - $2.0m   #SOLD Avg SOLD $$ Med SOLD $$	14 $1,678,643 $1,617,500	7 $1,752,857 $1,700,000	-50      +4.4      +5.1
$2.0 - UP   # SOLD Avg SOLD $$ Med SOLD $$	8 $2,409,375 $2,312,500	6 $2,591,667 $2,575,000	-25      +7.5      +11.3

The only real pattern here is that the # of homes SOLD is down across the board. Prices on the other hand, are up and down in an almost hopscotch-like pattern. And only the high-high-end is solidly up.

And because of very high inventory,(150 homes for sale at $1.0 & up) and significantly slower sales, I keep expecting the high end of the market to show a substantial decline in prices. Yet it hasn't, yet.

There are a couple of things that occur to me as to why the high high-end is holding up here in the Foothills, despite high inventory, slower sales and all the other negative influences chipping away at real estate values.
First off, the obvious, many of these homes are bought for cash.
No mortgage.
So the dismal state of the mortgage markets is often not a direct factor. While at lower price points buyers are routinely having a harder time qualifying for a mortgage, and when they do, it's often a smaller mortgage than they would like, and they're required to put more money down. So in the end they have less to spend on a home.

But also, like never before, we now have two classes of high-end homes in the Foothills, based solely on where they're located and the lots they're built on. (if you're having a deja vu as you read this and the next paragraph, it's because I lifted them from an earlier post I did on the same subject)
Before 2005, homes that were priced at about $1.5m and up were built in gated communities or on well located lots in non-gated areas of the Foothills. Since then, good lots have become an endangered species in the Tucson Foothills, and builders have responded by putting up very expensive homes on less desirable in-fill lots, lots that would not have been considered for building 4 or 5 years ago.

And in doing so, they've crossed the line of buyers tolerance. 
Buyers of high-end homes are opting to purchase only those homes that are on good lots in good locations, and bypassing the others. And for those, prices are holding up. Because unlike others who are less well off, many of the very wealthy just don't need to sell, so if you want what they have, you've got to pay the price, for now.

But I don't think that's how the story ends. Because by and large, the owners/builders of those $1,000,000+ vacant spec homes sprinkled throughout the Foothills, are not of that very wealthy class. And they can't hold out forever. And eventually, that will effect the market, negatively.

I believe that many of those $1,000,000+ spec homes can be gotten at a deep discount, right now.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

the Tucson Foothills is a local housing market

I came across an article from Bankrate.com that offers some good common-sense advice about how local real estate markets often perform very differently from what's happening nationally.
Just so happens that the article also fits in nice 'n neatly with my post from yesterday, we've had our ups and downs in the Tucson Foothills, but
 
From Bankrate.com
When will YOUR housing market recover?
' Pundits love to make predictions as to when home prices will stabilize in U.S. housing markets. But even well-respected forecasters and analysts may disagree, and even if a forecast proves true nationally, your local market may behave in a wildly different way. This disconnect between broad-stroke forecasts and small-scale local markets presents quite a puzzle for homebuyers and home sellers, who need to make major financial decisions on the basis of facts, not fiction.'

' ...the national housing market is more than large enough to encompass a wide variety of trends in different places and on different timelines '

Read it here, When will YOUR housing market recover?

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

we've had our ups and downs in the Tucson Foothills, but

I can't help it, I always do this when Case-Schiller comes out with their numbers for home prices, which are then gobbled up and spit out by every media outlet across this country.
Case-Shiller says... Case-Schiller...Case-Schiller

Case-Schiller does not cover Tucson, and certainly not the Tucson Foothills. So I feel that I have to report the numbers for the Tucson Foothills, so people know what's going on here in the Foothills, in order to counter any misconceptions that may accrue from the blast of news that accompanies the Case-Schiller report.
(and by the way, I have no argument with the Case-Schiller report, I'm sure it's true, for the markets they report)

But the rise and fall of home prices in the Tucson Foothills has been less dramatic than in the notoriously once hot markets reported by
Case-Schiller that dominate the news.

Nevertheless, as the following chart illustrates, we've had our share of ups and downs. 
 

Average & and median sale prices in the Foothills peaked in 2006 at $730,068 for the average, and, $580,000 for the median.

Then in 2007 they dropped 3.9% to $701,252 for the average, and, 5.5% to $548,000 for the median.
And this year they're down again.
The average sale price is down 6.9% to $652,519, and the median is down 2.3% to $535,000, from 2007.

So for the last two years, the average sale price in the Tucson Foothills is down 10.8% and the median is down 8.4%.

Over the last few days we've read, seen and heard that prices are down 15, 20, and 25% in just one year for many of the markets covered by Case-Schiller. It didn't happen here.

UPDATE: A few hours later.
Since posting this piece on Case-Schiller and how it's findings are reported in the press, whether applicable or not to your market area, and consequently often misconstrued by many listeners, readers, and watchers, along comes this headline on the front page of the business section of today's AZ Daily Star, to perfectly illustrate my point.

U.S. home prices are plummeting, still not close to bottoming out

This glaring headline, created by our own AZ Daily Star, was pasted above an AP story reporting on the findings of the Case-Schiller report.
The AZ Daily Star is a local paper, and anyone reading that headline would reasonably conclude that it's about Tucson. But it's not, and the Star damn-well knows that.
There's nothing in the Case-Schiller report about Tucson.
Unfortunately, our local paper The AZ Star makes no effort whatsoever to explain that, or to provide any perspective at all that would be of value to its readers.
Big glaring headline, Cheap, irresponsible journalism. 

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

the short sale of the week sells in 6 days

Last week I posted a piece called short sale of the week, in the Tucson Foothills
It featured a home that had been on the market for about 10 months, and during that time priced between $1.5m and $1.2m, and it didn't sell. Then last week it was re-listed as a short sale, for the
bargain-basement price of $850,000, or $186.53/sq ft.
A real deal.

With short sales it usually takes a long time for the lender to make up their mind about an offer, and then have a meeting to get the committee to approve it, and process the paperwork, and on and on.
This one went in six days, listing to accepted offer, and I'll bet there was a bidding war. Someone did very well. $186.53/sq ft is a steal for that house.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

it's a condo, it's a town home, it's a ...

Bob, a reader of this blog emailed me asking how the town-home market is doing in the Tucson Foothills . 
This was in response to my post in the Tucson Foothills real estate market ... where I was asked readers to let me know, what they'd like to know about the Tucson Foothills market.

Ok, the town-home market. For single family homes this is usually a simple and straightforward task, and I do it regularly. But for
town-homes I knew that it wouldn't be quite as straightforward, and would involve a bit more sifting through the data.

Here's why.
Until early 2007 town-homes and condos were treated as the same type of property in the MLS, TH/CND, townhome/condo.
When an agent listed either a town-home or a condo, there was one box to check on the MLS listing sheet and that covered both
town-homes and condos, and as a result listings for town-homes or condos showed up as TH/CND. No distinction. They were all glommed together.
Then in early 2007 the Tucson Association of Realtors decided to
un-glom them and create two separate categories - Condo, and town-home, each to have their own separate designation. That makes sense.

And then, as a follow up, I'm told, they somehow would go back and
re-designate all the properties that had sold and were originally listed as TH/CND into the newly appropriate separate categories.
Condos were to be re-listed as condos, and town-homes as town-homes. Neat as you please. Or so the story went.
 
I don't track condo/town-home sales like I do single family homes, so I wasn't aware of the extent of this condo/town-home mash-up,
and assumed that the TAR had more or less straightened things out, so I could move ahead and answer Bobs question.

So I started pulling the data from the MLS;

I saw that in 2003, 326 town-homes sold in the Tucson Foothills.
That seemed like a very healthy figure for town-home sales in one year.
Moving on I saw that in 2004 272 sold, but in 2005, 429 sold.
How could that be, 429 town-homes sold in one year in the Foothills.  Up periscope, I started wondering, did I sleep through some game changing town-home event that occurred in 2005, or am I just losing it
OK, let's see what happened in 2006.
IMPOSSIBLE. DID NOT HAPPEN.
-according to the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS -
655 town-homes SOLD in the Tucson Foothills in 2006,
NO WAY! There's never been near that many town-homes for sale in the foothills in any one year, never mind 655 sold,

Now I had to find out what was going on and take a look at the details of where these alleged town-homes were located.
It took about a minute and it all fell into place.

In 2005 & 2006 there was a tsunami of condo conversions that took place in the Foothills - Tierra Catalina, Veranda, Pinnacle, the Villas at Sabino Canyon, Ventana Vista, etc, etc. And those condos were originally listed as TH/CND, townhome/condo. But later, when the MLS decided to separate the two categories, almost all the condos somehow got re-listed as townhomes. And because of that, the hundreds of condos that have sold since then, ended up being listed as town-homes that sold. Not condos. Hundreds of them.

So all the data on town-home sales is corrupted and useless, and all the data on condo sales is useless too.
The MLS data shows that 655 town-homes and 62 condos sold in 2006. Flipping those numbers - to 62 townhomes & 655 condos sold -though not completely accurate, would be a lot closer to the actual number of condos and town-homes that sold in 2006.

So in trying to answer a simple question from Bob, " how's the
town-home market doing in the Tucson foothills " I've instead opened a big can of worms.

So Bob, for now, it's hard to say how the town-home market is doing.

At this point, in order to figure it out, me, or anyone else, would have to go through each listing, one-by-one, in each of the last few years to determine whether each property is actually a condo or a town-home, and then separate them out, keep a list, check it twice, and add up the number of properties sold that are actually town-homes, plus the sold price for each, and then compute the average and median sold prices. Sound like fun yet.
If I only went back to 2005 it would mean going through about 1300 listings, one-by-one. Quick, where's my abacus.

Needless to say, I've got a few calls into the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS, hoping that they will figure out a way to untangle this mess. I'll let you know what I hear. 

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes