1st quarter home sales for the Tucson Foothills

Here are the latest sales figures for single family homes SOLD in
the Tucson Foothills for the period of
January - March 2008 vs January - March 2007 -
thru the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service

Price	Jan - Mar 07 # Sold	Jan - Mar 08 # Sold	+/- %
$0 - $250K	3	3	0
$250 - $500K	56	50	-11
$500 - $750K	40	32	-20
$750 - $1.0m	22	21	-4
$1.0 - $1.5m	9	7	-22
$1.5 - $2.0m	7	4	-42
$2.0 & UP	2	6	200
Total Sold	139	123	-11.5
Avg List $$	$715,982	$762,277	6
Avg Sold $$	$682,305	$716,221	5
Median List $$	$567,000	$559,900	-1
Median Sold $	$540,000	$538,750	-.23
$$ Value of Homes Sold	$94,840,355	$88,095,191	-7

This is now the beginning of the 3rd year of declining home sales in the Tucson Foothills.
In 2006 home sales dropped by 25% vs. 2005, and in 2007 they dropped again, by 15%.
Now sales are down yet again, this time by 11.5%.
The best that can be said is that the rate of decline is slowing,
and maybe the worst is over.

Yet through all this, the average sold price continues to be up - it's higher than it was in 05, 06 and 07 - while the median has dipped this year, but just barely.
On the other hand, these numbers are all down from last month - see 2008 Tucson Foothills home sales, so far - and because we're now deeper into our busy season for sales, if anything, the numbers should be up from last month.

Are we on the brink of something here.
Are prices about to finally succumb to two+ years of slower sales and higher inventory, or are sales working back up through a slow climb to recovery? What do you think.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

Comments

[Keith Schultz]

I am skeptical about the stats and think prices are softer than MLS seems to imply. One reason, some of the new inventory is better quality and obviously more valuable, which ups the gross sales data. This effect masks even softer prices for older inventory.

1 and 1/2 years ago, I looked at #20801637 when it listed for $3 mil. MLS shows it sold for $2.250 mil in March 2008. This is 75% of LP, not 90%; and DOM should be 500, not 50.

[John Schneider]

Keith,
I hear what you're saying, but
as you know, the housing stock in the foothills is a mix of new and old, more old, I would say,
and while the new inventory may be more expensive than the old, wasn't that also true last year and the year before, so if it ups the sales data this year, wouldn't it have upped it last year also. And wouldn't it have also masked the 'even softer' prices for older inventory sold last year too. Breakdowns of prices by age, or any number of other criteria are possible, but I'm reporting quarterly sales, and I think we're looking at apples to apples here.

The % of SP/LP and DOM, as reported in the MLS is a joke, it's just not a funny joke.
I wrote about that here> http://thetucsonfoothills.typepad.com/thetucsonfoothills/2007/10/when-is-98-not-.html

and HERE> http://thetucsonfoothills.typepad.com/thetucsonfoothills/2007/10/the-new-math-96.html

and somewhere else too, but I can't seem to find it.
and by the way, this is not based on published data from the MLS, I pull all this data myself,
Thanks,

[keith schultz]

You make a good point. and I wish MLS would be straight with the public, or not publish its misleading DOM and sp data at all. Makes me very leery of everything.

[John Schneider]

Keith, it would be very easy for the TAR/MLS to show a Total Days on Market, TDOM, alongside a Current Days on Market, CDOM, or something like that. this is done in other cities, why not here, it's a remnant of an old way of doing business. Nevertheless, your agent can very easily (just one click from the listing in the MLS) pull all the DOM data as well as the pricing history from the current and all past listings (whether it sold or not), so you can get an accurate picture of the history of every home that interests you.