January - April home sales for the Tucson Foothills

With four months of home sales under our belts during our busiest time of year, I think we can now begin to get a handle on the direction of the market here in the Tucson Foothills for 2008.
The following data is for single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills from 1/1/08 through 4/30/08 vs the same period in 2007, through the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.

This market has been very resilient to price declines, but it appears that rising inventory and slower sales may be catching up with us,
as evidenced by a drop, albeit small, in the average and median sold prices, for the first time this year. Prior to this they had been up.
And with a large inventory (for the Foothills) of about 580 homes for sale, and summer right around the corner, the near-term outlook would seem to point to yet slower sales and the possibility of further price declines. Here are the numbers,

Price	Jan-April 07 # SOLD	Jan-April 08 # SOLD	+/-%	# For Sale
$0 - $250K	4	5	+25%	7
250 -$500K	81	78	-3.7%	161
500 -$750K	70	55	-21%	161
750 -$1.0m	29	29	0	85
1.0 -$1.5m	12	9	-25%	84
1.5 -$2.0m	13	5	-61.5%	39
$2.0 & UP	3	6	+100%	40
Total Sold	212	187	-11.7%	577
Avg List $	$716,375	$706,442	-1.38%
Avg Sold $	$685,199	$666,258	-2.76%
Median List	$555,000	$550,000	-.90%
Median Sold	$540,000	$535,000	-.92%
$$ Value of Homes Sold	$145,262,179	$124,590,311	-14%

 **these figures were updated on 4/5
I assumed that because of the high days of inventory at the upper-end, that that's where the bulk of the drop in average sold prices was occurring, 

Price	Jan-April 07 Avg Sold Price	Jan-April 08 Avg Sold Price	+/-%
$0 - $500K	$394,238	$374,270	-5%
$500 - $1.0m	$677,064	$692,433	+2%
$1.0 - $1.5m	$1,291,800	$1,240,722	-3.95%
$1.5 - $2.0m	$1,686,615	$1,729,000	+2.5%
$2.0 & UP	$2,431,667	$2,591,667	+6%

But that's not really the case, prices have dropped more at the lower end of the market.
And despite the high days of inventory - about 32 months worth at $1.0 & UP, prices are holding up pretty well. And I think I know why.
Like never before, we now have two classes of high-end homes in the Foothills, based solely on the lot and location.

Before 2005, homes that were priced at about $1.5m and up were built in gated communities or on well located lots in non-gated areas of the Foothills. Since then, good lots have become an endangered species in the Tucson Foothills, and builders have responded by putting up very expensive homes on less desirable in-fill lots, lots that would not have been considered 4 or 5 years ago. And in doing so, they've crossed the line of buyers tolerance. 
Buyers of high-end homes are opting to purchase only those homes that are on good lots in good locations, and bypassing the others. And for those, prices are holding up. location, location, ...

See 2008 Tucson Foothills home sales, so far for Jan-Feb sales,
and, 1st quarter home sales for the Tucson Foothills for Jan-March sales.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes