charm sells in the Tucson Foothills

This house in the Tucson Foothills went under contract yesterday after just 29 days on the market with no price reductions.
And while that may be noteworthy given the current climate,
the real moral here is that you can't accurately value a property like this using arms length data. You need to understand the market.

I don't know the agreed contract price and we'll have to wait until it closes to find out, but I'll bet they got very close to the $725,000 asking price, which at just 2264 square feet, works out to a hefty $320.23/sq ft. (looking at the data for foothills homes sold in the last 90 days the average $/sq. ft. cost is $213.00)

So why so much for this one.
Because homes like this - older adobes, with style and charm that are also in good condition and in good locations - have become very scarce in the Foothills. Yet for many people they remain the epitome of a romantic vision of what Tucson living is all about.
And they're usually on good lots in the 'Old Foothills', which is a very desirable area, and even if they were building them like this today, which they're not, there are no good lots available to build in the 'Old Foothills'. 

So looking at this on paper, or if you were unfamiliar with the strong demand/low supply for this type of home, you'd naturally think it was foolishly overpriced. But it's not. And it's a credit to Barbara Moylan the listing agent that she knows enough about the Foothills market, and also didn't allow the roar of gloom & doom to make her flinch, and price this home according to some statistic, rather than to the reality of the marketplace for this niche.

Because they're so scarce there's little current data available, so whether you're in the market to buy or sell a home like this, the garden variety sales data won't point to the real value.

I bought one similar to this about 18 months ago, and on paper, I paid through the nose. In reality, I own a very special piece of the 'Old Foothills' that can't be duplicated.

Update  (a little while later) I couldn't help it, my curiosity got the better of me, so I went to Zillow for their zestimate of the value of this home. Zillow says it's worth $558,000, with a cover their butt value range of $468,720 - $591,480. Still no cigar.

see my web site thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

Comments

[John Schneider]

yes I did see this come back on the market, who knows why, funding maybe, or didn't appraise as you say, I can see that in this environment. one thing's for sure, it'll be difficult (impossible maybe) to find another one like this.

[rebecca]

whoops. looks like it wasn't enough charm. i see this as active again. maybe it didn't appraise? maybe the buyer couldn't get funding? i'm seeing more and more homes going under contract and then falling out these days. a sign o' the times perhaps.

[RP]

Since you mentioned Zillow estimates, I thought I would check how close they are to actual selling prices.

I took as my sample homes 'just sold' in the last week (sales dates were 7/28 - 8/1), as shown on the 'Just Sold' listing you have on your site, from the MLS. There were 16 homes in the sample.

Then I looked up the Zillow estimate. Here are the results. (Any errors are my fault.)

Zillow/ Actual/ Under(-)/over-estimate (%)
$'000/ $'000
290.5/ 293/ -0.9%
299.5/ 310/ -3.4%
563/ 360/ 56.4%
334/ 369.9/ -9.7%
420/ 399/ 5.3%
470.5/ 420/ 12.0%
451.5/ 435/ 3.8%
442/ 438/ 0.9%
562/ 485/ 15.9%
540.5/ 495/ 9.2%
483/ 560*/ -13.8%
741.5/ 700*/ 5.9%
801.5/ 753/ 6.4%
1182.5/ 1350/ -12.4%
1301/ 1495/ -13.0%
1680/ 1640/ 2.4%

*Zillow recorded these houses as recently sold.

Zillow estimates were below Actual in 6 cases, but above it in 10 cases.

Zillow was within 10% of the Actual price in 10 cases out of 16 - thus meeting their criterion of 'most' estimates being within 10% of selling price, for this sample.

The greatest anomaly - $563k estimate v. $360k actual - is for a house that seems to have a pretty anomalous price history. It sold for 570k in April 2003, when Tucson median prices were around $145k, and has now sold again recently for $360k when the Tucson median is $200k.

[John Schneider]

RP, Unfurnished homes are almost always more difficult to sell. I say almost always, because once in a while, the furnishings (because they are inappropriate or just downright dreadful)detract from, rather than add to 'the look' of a house.
And yes I suppose zillow added the 78% average appreciation for Tucson, shaked and stirred and presto, arrived at a new value. And I'm sure that works awfully well in areas with oodles of 'cookie cutter' homes, but usually it doesn't work so well here. But at least now they explain (now if only people bother to read it) the limitations of the zestimates, and that's a nice touch.

[RP]

This house last sold in December 1998 for $305,000. Since then, Tucson Area median prices have risen by around 78%, according to the TAR. (The Zillow estimate of value - a rough estimate at best, of course - is close to this uplift in value.)

[RP]

It looks like a very nice house, inside and outside. I wonder if it would have been rather more difficult to sell if the furniture (which I assume 'does not convey'!) had been removed.

[Paige]

Wow! What a beautiful home! I've never been to Arizona. I did live in New Mexico for a while when I was younger. I rented and adobe house in town and loved the 'feel' of it! I write blogs down here in Florida,now. http://www.c21alliancerealty.com/blog We don't have any adobe houses,of course, but do have a few of those 'old Florida style' homes left...very few! Thanks for bringing back that childhood memory and thanks for such and informative article!

[John Schneider]

I'm surprised it took that long,

[rebecca]

yes that's a neat house on one of the best roads in all of tucson. i'm not at all surprised it went under contract relatively quickly!