there’s plenty to choose from in Alta Vista

With 6061 N Paseo Zaldivar listed today for $995,000 ($251/sf), there are now 16 homes for sale in Alta Vista. (Listed by Keller Williams)

But with only two homes sold in the last six months, Alta Vista has a bountiful 48 month supply of homes for sale.

The 16 for sale range from $499,000 to $2,100,000.
Average list - $988,304
Median - $942,000
@ $252/sf

see them all here> for sale in Alta Vista
the link will expire on 10/3/10

The two that did sell went for $714,000 ($157/sf) and
$900,000 ($210/sf). There are also two homes under contract.
One is listed at $499,000 ($197/sf) and the other is a spec home listed at $1,295,000 ($226/sf).

Now I know that buyers are looking closely at these and other numbers to help them understand market conditions and determine realistic values in Alta Vista. But I wonder, are the sellers in Alta Vista also doing their due diligence and do they fully understand the dismal state of market conditions in there.

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Comments

[Stuart]

Let's give Melisa the benefit of the doubt that Alta Vista ONLY has 16 homes for sale out of a total of 295 homes, which means only 5.4% of the homes in that area are for sale.

However, looking at it from another point of view it means in real terms that there is for every twenty homes in that area there is one for sale. That may not be a glut, but let's then compare those numbers to those,for example.to Fairfield,an
adjacent community.

How many homes in Fairfield are for sale compared to the number of homes in the area? The answer...far less than one in 20. Does that mean that the sellers in the Fairfield area are pricing their homes more realistically...or that the demand for that typically smaller and less costly home is what buyers are looking for today?

I am not against Alta Vista...and in fact think it is a lovely area...but as to if they are worth more than $275 sq ft in todays market is quite a strech, and yet that is what many in that area are priced at. When their prices are dropped to less than 240 sq ft. they seem to pick up a fair amount of interest.

[john schneider]

Thanks Melissa, but I never said or implied that buyers for one development are exclusive to that development. Of course not. Nevertheless, looking at market conditions in individual subdivisions is very instructive and meaningful, whether it be Alta Vista, Cat 10 or Shadow Hills. Because each of them are in a certain location in the foothills, and location-location is a key criteria for every single buyer. Also - and this is one of the wonderful things about the foothills - all of these subdivisions or communities have individual characteristics - a look, feeling, or style, with certain types of views, etc - as well as a price range, sometimes broad, sometimes narrow, that appeals to some folks and not others.

And that's not to say that calculating MOI based on gated and not gated is not valid, it is. So is doing it by one or two story
homes or by older and newer homes, and more. How about, pools and no pools. They're all valid, but also fairly narrow in their scope.

But looking at it by location, that is, by subdivision or community, is very telling and worthwhile. And buyers are very interested in that kind breakdown. And sellers should be too.
Think of what an appraiser looks for when looking for comps. Ideally, they want comps on the same street, then the same community. Beyond that, everthing else is everything else and less dependable.

However, with the market the way it is, pthe most instructive way to look at MOI is by price range. Which I do regularly.
But here it is again,
$0 - $599,999 = 6 months inventory
$600,000 - $999,999 = 10 months inventory
$1,000,000 & up = 20+ months inventory.

JS

[Melissa]

Saying that a particular community has "X" months supply is a meaningless statistic. The inventory in Alta Vista is part of the foothills inventory, and it is unrealistic to think that the pool of available foothills buyers for one development is exclusive to that development. There are several developments similar to Alta Vista, and buyers for one area are undoubtedly looking at other similar nearby developments. At best, for purposes of calculating months of inventory, you can divide the foothills, in aggregate, by gated and non-gated communities because it is true that certain buyers limit their selection according to that one particular criterion. Alternatively, you can look at what percentage of a particular development is for sale to gauge market trends. But in the case of Alta Vista, 16 homes of 295 total homes is only 5.4% of all homes for sale. Not exactly what you would call a glut of inventory!

[Alntyr]

One positive for Alta Vista is the relatively low level of HOA dues.

[john schneider]

Yes Stuart, they're still living in denial. And unless we see some miracles, I'm afraid that reality may soon come knocking - and knocking hard.
JS

[Stuart]

We have not seen realistic pricing in the Alta Vista market for the past year or so. It must be the high altitude that keeps the sellers looking for the "pot at the end of the rainbow"!

Yes,we have seen some of these homes come down in price...and a few have open houses almsot every other week. But few buyers ...and what a waste of time for some of these brokers who stand around all day waiting to see prospects.

Now one of them is in a short sale ...down from initially asking close to $1.2 mil and now can be bot my guess at around $825,000. If the sellers had put it on the market a year ago at $995,000 they might have found a few buyers...but now it is "stale" despite a few price reductions in the past year.

Alta Vista does not offer a gated community...which many high end buyers look for...and since the homes are built on hills most of them have interior steps to deal with...another "no-no" for many prospective homeowners.

So they have 2 strikes against them...but they ignore these realities and have not adjusted their prices accordingly....yet!

If a few more months go by with no action you may well see many of them trying to get out the door at the same time....and it could be a stampede then!