what happened in March

The chart below is nice little snapshot of sales activity for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills from Jan 1 through October 31. What we’re seeing here is average list & sold prices (pale blue & black lines) and sales volume/month - that is the total dollar amount of homes sold/month (the columns).

And it’s all pretty hum-drum, chugging along stuff, and then there’s March.
What happened in March? Why did $40,000,000 worth of homes sell in March, while sales for the next highest month were just $27,000,000. And why were sales so slow in October? I don’t know, do you. And why did sale prices peak in February and then drop like a stone. Aren’t you glad you came here looking for answers.

And while we’re at it, where will the market be 6 months from now??

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Comments

[john schneider]

Bruce, Your point about a willing buyer and seller being unable to agree on a FMV price, cuts to the heart of our stalemate.
JS

[Bruce]

The trend in the data is not positive. It appears that volume for the month of October was 60% off the March peak and the average sales price for the year thru October dipped slightly over 20% during the year. Has the bottom been reached yet?

With the uncertainty over the economy, interest rates (behaving opposite the FRB's FOMC action of two weeks ago), next year's tax rates, etc., does not bode well for a rush of buyers especially at the high end of the market.

Notwithstanding all of that, if a willing buyer and a willing seller cannot agree on a FMV price for both parties, the numbers won't improve very quickly.

[R S]

John,
The March peak stemmed from the first time homebuyer tax credit (which expired in April). Same phenomenon elsewhere.