TheTucsonFoothills

in 85750

In Canyon Ridge, 4781 N Rocky Crest Place - listed last September at $1,950,000, dropped to $1,775,000 then to $1,575,000 ($383/sf) went to contract today.
That is a very solid hit for the high-end market. (listed by Long Realty)

Also in 85750, 6713 E Snyder Road, sold for $700,000 in 05, listed for $775,000 in  August 2010, was reduced to $725,000 three weeks ago and went to contract today.  (listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona)

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foreclosures, the new black

7454 N Secret Canyon, the 2009 built spec home that once upon a time was listed for a cool $5 mil, but went nowhere – was listed by mr lender in mid November for $2,120,145 – is now (already) in contract. Pretty quick, especially if you consider that mid November marked the beginning of the holidays. (listed by Toma Partners)
A very good deal in my opinion, I showed to two buyers but, good deal or not, it wasn’t for them.

And I have it on good authority that there are 6 offers (yes, s-i-x) sitting on mr lenders desk awaiting his decision as to which lucky bidder gets the keys to 7827 N Ancient Indian Drive in Pima Canyon.  And that at least one of them is over list price. And just think, just 18 months ago Ancient Indian was a fresh new listing looking for $3,750,000 – which of course went nowhere - and when it resurfaced as a foreclosure it was at $1,855,000 – which I never thought would fly either, because it needed way too much work. But in late November, when it got down to $1,216,000 ($183sf) (68% less than originally listed for), I wrote - There’s some work to be done in there-  some damage & missing parts here and there -  but at this price I think they’ve taken that into consideration. And for once someone agreed with me.
(listed by Win3 Realty)

And word is that Javelina Drive - the 11,000 sf Skyline Country Club manse that, after plugging away for like 7 years at $4.9 and thereabouts and finally fell to foreclosure early this month and was listed for $2.2  ($201/sf) – is about to ink a deal, after just 3 weeks. I wrote about it when it was listed as a foreclosure > the return of Javelina Drive (listed by Santa Maria Realty)

And yet another high-end foreclosure that I can’t identify at this time because I’m representing the buyer, or one of the buyers, is about to get an offer from us and another offer from someone else. So two offers for a home listed at more than $1.5mil.  We’ll see.

And though it doesn’t quite qualify, because it’s not a foreclosure, 4332 E Playa De Coronado is a short sale and it sold today for $1,100,000 ($232/sf), off a $1,249,000 list price, after starting out last April as a nice normal sale at $1,749,000. (listed by Long Realty)

Think about this, if 7827 Ancient Indian, Javelina Drive and the unnamed foreclosure all go to contract – which does not seem unlikely – there will be no foreclosures listed for sale in the foothills at million $$ or more. None, at least for now anyway.

And the AZ Star article, Unsold Mansions, is still not available online. So no wonder it’s a falling Star. I did however get a hard copy of it and it’s a good article. I like it. Well, because it’s almost exactly what I’ve been saying for the past 2 1/2 years.

But I wonder, what does it portend that the Star has just now finally gotten around to reporting on the demise of the upper end market. hmm

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take one giant step backward

Has anyone seen this.
There is a front page article in today’s Arizona Daily Star titled Unsold mansions … 
(I don’t get the Star, a friend emailed me about it)

But only a teaser for the article appears online. Because the Star, always on the cutting edge, has decided to only make the article available in print. Yes, you read that correctly, only in print – not on the internet.
the teaser,

They're big.

They're beautiful.

They're Tucson's most expensive homes - and no one is buying them.

In a story that appears only in today's print edition, real estate reporter Dale Quinn delves into the world of luxury real estate in Tucson - and finds that, if you have the bucks, there are some amazing deals out there. (that’s it, unless you have the print edition)
__________________________________________________________________

The friend who emailed me about it, wrote,

Article on front page of AZ Daily Star...Make sure you check out if you haven't already...you could have written this article!

I may have to break down and get the paper, unless someone would scan it and email a copy.

of course you can ask whatever you want

5901 E Placita Primitiva started in 08 at $1,295,000, then $1,249,000, $1,195,000, $1,139,000, then $1,098,000, $1,039,000, then $989,000 and finally, a leap to $849,000 and, Bingo!, a contract (Listed by Russ Lyon Sothebys Int. Realty)

Placita Primitiva is just the latest example of what’s happening in the $600k to $999k price range - a range that appears to be on the mend - when sellers get  their prices down to where they need to be to get buyers attention.

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getting in the groove in Cat 10

4441 N Camino Sumo is back for sale, now at an even 2 mil.

Camino Sumo was first listed in June 08 for $2,895,000, eventually reduced to $2,500,000 and left the market unsold last September.

4441 N Camino Sumo , Tucson, AZ 85718

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there goes the neighborhood

2123 E Sentry Ridge Court, in the Reserve section of Pima Canyon, no less, sold today for $1,517,250. At  $249/sf – that is a new low for the Reserve section and within a dollar or two of the two other lowest priced sales - on a $$/sf basis - anywhere in Pima Canyon. And that’s going back five years.

Sentry Ridge Court is a 2008 built, 6100 sf spec home that first hit the market in November 07 looking for $2,750,000.

It took 3+ years to get a contract, but once it did it was over fast – a cash sale,
it went from contract to close in 10 days. Hallelujah!!

2123 E Sentry Ridge Court Tucson, AZ 85718

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the standoff continues at a million $$ & up

at a million & up there are 92 homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills - 
vs. 15 sold in the last 6 months (making roughly a 3 year supply of homes at a million & up) and if we break that down a little tighter we get;

45 are listed from $1.0 to $1.5  - 13 sold from $975k to $1.5 (= a 20+ month supply)
23 are listed from $1.51 to $2.0 -  1 sold from $1.51 to $2.0 (138 month supply!!!)
24 are listed from $2.01 & up     -  1 sold from $2.01 & up (144 month supply!!!)

92 for sale                                      15 sold in 6 months, 4 of them were distress sales (*4 of the 15 that sold, or 26.6%,  were either short sales or foreclosures)

and there are 7 in contract
5 of them priced $1.0 to $1.5
2 priced $1.51 to $2.0
none priced at $2.01 & up
(and 2 of those in contract, or 28%, are short sales) (and only 2 of them went to contract this year, the rest are holdovers from last year)

Many high-end sellers have been able to hold out. And no doubt there are many who still have the will and resources to continue to do so. But to what purpose. Prices are, without a doubt, going down, not up. And every week another foreclosure or short sale is added to the mix, further chipping away at prices and at buyer expectations.

Meanwhile, buyers of high-end homes have shown an equal or greater willingness to hold out. Most of them have other options and don’t have to buy. Many are discretionary purchases - 2nd homes, retirement homes – where there’s no urgency to buy. And most of those buyers, as we’ve seen for the last few years, are perfectly willing to wait for the right one to come along at the right price.
Look at the numbers, those are the facts, that is the state of the high-end market in the Tucson Foothills. The rest of it is just talk or wishful thinking or who knows what.

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it’s not just us, prices are not going up in Chicago; Las Vegas; Detroit; Atlanta; Seattle; Charlotte, N.C.; Miami; Tampa; Fla.; and Portland, Ore

U.S. Home Prices Slump Again, Hitting New Lows
A new slide in housing prices has begun in earnest, with averages in major cities across the country falling to their lowest point in many years.

but since Case & Schiller didn’t see fit to include the Tucson Foothills in their top 20, or is it their bottom 20,  here are a few recent examples of new lows a little closer to home – and these are asking prices

5815 N Pontatoc Road – once listed for $1,200,000, will now take $795,000
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

4549 N Hacienda Del Sol – once listed for $879,000 is now $550,000
(listed by RE/MAX Catalina Foothills Realty)

In 08  5801 E Finisterra was asking $3,887,000 and is now available for $2,500,000
(listed by Long Realty)

6710 N Longfellow Drive sold for $975,000 in August 08 – ouch!! – and one year later was listed for $939,500. But no-go and so it’s now available for $699,000 as a short sale – 28% off the 08 sale price. (listed by Long Realty)

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only at the right price

6972 E Wild Canyon Place sold for $655,000 in 04 and is back in contract today off a $679,000 list price – that’s after asking for $925, $899, $849, $799 and getting nowhere

And 5501 N Paseo Pescado in Pontatoc Canyon Estates, which sold in 04 for $800,000 and tried, and failed, to get $845 last June -  went to contract today listed at $739,000

The good news is that once homes get down to where they need to be, more and more buyers are stepping up to make a deal.

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Catalina Foothills Estates home owners

Dear Neighbor,

I just wanted to email you a reminder that the Catalina Foothills Association will be holding our Annual Meeting next Tuesday, January 25th at 6:30 pm at St. Phillips Church in the Murphey Gallery.  The program this year is "Community Partnership" and we have invited a number of groups to attend, including representatives from:
 
                        Tucson Cactus/Succulent Society
                        Watershed Management
                        Buffel Grass
                        Neighborhood Watch
                        TEP - Solar
                        Native Seeds SEARCH
                        CFA Sign Painting
                        Historic Committee – Joesler Homes and CFA Street Signs
                        Coalition for Sonoran Desert Protection

Each of these groups will have a table to set up so you may interact and learn more about those issues which are of greatest interest to YOU.  So come and meet your neighbors and enjoy some refreshments.

I hope to see you there!

Sincerely,

Will Pew
President -- Catalina Foothills Association
www.CatalinaFoothillsAssociation.org

the 1st 22 days of this new year

here’s a snapshot of the real estate activity in the Tucson Foothills since Jan 1;

30 homes have gone to contract

21 priced $0 to $599,999
  7 priced $600,000 to $999,999
  2 priced at $1,000, 000 or more
@ an average/median/$/sf of - $531,962/$444,000/$169/sf

128 have been listed, or relisted, for sale

68 priced $0 to $599,999
32 priced $600,000 to $999,999
28 priced $1,000,000 & up
@ an average/median/$/sf of - $838,863/$587,000/$221/sf

 

20 homes have sold since Jan 1

19 priced $0 to $599,999
1 priced at $690,000
0 priced at $1,000,000 or more
@an average/median/$/sf of - $399,010/$396,250/$163/sf
and PS, the homes that sold are from deals that were made last year

netting out to a total of 485 single family homes for sale
@ $783,360/$550,000/$213/sf

and the beat goes on, with the same old yawning gap between the price of homes that are listed for sale vs those going to contract and selling

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it’s your last chance, make the best of it

this came in an email – OWNER MUST SELL – BRING ALL OFFERS

I see so many home owners who hang on until the very end and don’t let on that they must sell. At least that’s the impression you get from their listing agents -everything’s honkey dory. But it’s not, they’re barely hanging on by their fingernails but everyone’s pretending and making nice. So instead of admitting it, they go down quietly and end up falling into the slippery hands of mr. lender. And that’s a mistake, they’re missing an opportunity, very possibly their last opportunity.

OWNER MUST SELL – BRING ALL OFFERS  is very compelling
it’s blood in the water and, like it or not, that brings in buyers

And I’m sure a lot of it is a matter of pride, but I’d also bet that many of those who kept that stiff upper lip til the very end, might do it differently if they had another chance. And having to admit that you have to sell your house is not the disgrace that it once might have been. Let’s face it, everyone knows someone who’s done it or is doin’ it.

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slow home sales, not here

Up in Sin Vacas 7201 N PLACITA SIN CODICIA was listed for sale 11 days ago and already it’s in contract. Listed at $849,000 ($225/sf) (listed by Long Realty)

It looks like the current owners are the original owners who had it built in 1999 and this is the 1st time it’s been for sale. So they must be wondering what the fuss is about with slow sales.

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Smart people are buying real estate

Well, if that’s true then …  
So says an article in WSJ.com & sister publication SmartMoney.com >
Real Estate: Finally a Good Investment?

Everyone hates homes.

Homes are probably the most hated asset class in the country. That's what happens when a bubble bursts. People avoid thinking about the value of their home. Sellers moan about no offers, buyers gripe about impossible lending requirements.

Hatred of an asset is often the precursor to contrarian interest, and being contrarian is at the heart of many investment strategies. To paraphrase Warren Buffett, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

Read all about it > Real Estate: Finally a Good Investment?

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1 down 18 to go

It’s been a long time coming but 2123 E Sentry Ridge Court is finally in contract.
And is it coincidental or what, that just yesterday I did that piece about nothing happening in Pima Canyon.

But that was yesterday. Today, Sentry Ridge, in the Reserve section of Pima Canyon -behind a 2nd gate and all that - a 2008 built, 6100 sf spec home that’s been on the market since late 2007 when it was first listed for $2,750,000 is in contract from its current  $1,850,000 ($303/sf) list price. (listed by Long Realty)

This is only the 3rd contract in PC since last July. But it’s also the highest priced Pima Canyon home to go to contract since last July. So let’s hope it’s catchy and
gets the ball rolling in there.

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looking at Pima Canyon today

On the supply side, there are 18 homes for sale in Pima Canyon. They’re priced from $995,500 to $4,250,000. And for the whole lot of them, the average/median asking price is $1,995,833/$1,800,000 @ $389/sf

On the demand side, 2 homes have sold in PC in the last 6 months - one at $1,475,000 ($277/sf) and one at $1,765,000 ($280/sf). And the $1,475,000 sale, though not a foreclosure this time round, was a partially completed (about 80%) spec home that was foreclosed in 09.  And it was purchased directly from the lender for the bargain price of $750,000. And just a guess, but I’ll bet they didn’t have to put more than about $200k in it to finish it. And then, rather than being greedy,
they priced it to sell, at $1.595, and in three weeks they had a buyer.

And the only other sale in Pima Cyn in the last 6 months was a foreclosure.
Once listed for $5,900,000, 2112 E Sentry Ridge Court, was taken over by mr lender and priced to sell at $1,999,000. And sell it did, and in a relatively short time, for $1,765,000.

So 18 homes for sale and just 2 sold in 6 months, and both were at the low end of PC prices. And there’s nothing in contract. And a house on Ancient Indian that was for sale for 2+ years and was foreclosed a few weeks ago, is about to become
the 19th home for sale and the 6th foreclosure/short sale in PC. What does that tell you about where prices are headed.

And in the ‘my how things have changed department’, if anyone had suggested two or three years ago that we’d have half a dozen foreclosures and short sales in Pima Cyn, they’d have been driven right out of the pearly gates.

UPDATE
Make that 19 for sale. The upcoming foreclosure on Ancient Indian that I mentioned up above, well, it came back on the market late this afternoon.  7828 N Ancient Indian – a (big) spec home  (7,450 sf) – started life in January 09 listed at $3,295,000 and by the time it sputtered out and left the market two weeks ago it was down to $1,995,000.  And still no go.

So mr lender took it over and brought it back on the market in record time. It showed up this afternoon listed for $1,850,000 ($248/sf) (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty)

And, at $248/sf, 7828 Ancient Indian is now the 2nd cheapest home for sale in PC - in terms of $/sf anyway, - exceeded only by the other foreclosure just across the street, peas in a pod, at 7827 N Ancient Indian Drive, asking $1,186,000 or $178/sf.

About two months ago I wrote an offer on Ancient Indian for some clients of mine.
But, unfortunately, for the seller anyway, we were not able to come to terms. 
So a couple of weeks have gone by and it’s now listed for $150k less – and $150k closer to the offer we made.

Prices are not going up.

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still waiting for a return to 2006 prices

Celia Chen, a housing market analyst for Moody's Analytics estimates that Las Vegas home prices won't return to their pre-recession peak until after 2032; in Phoenix, the rebound will take until 2034; and Salinas, Calif., and Naples, Fla., won't come back until sometime around 2038.

and here I’ve been predicting that Phoenix wouldn’t recover until 2037
Read all about it > CNNMoney.com 
Vegas home prices: On the skid until 2032

patience is a virtue

slim pickins in short sales and foreclosures in the Tucson Foothills

Heading into this new year there are 467 single family homes for sale in the foothills, and 39 of them are either short sales or foreclosures -
19 short sales/20 foreclosures – so  8% of the total homes for sale are distress sales.

29 are priced from $0 to $599,999 (29 of 260 total for sale = 11%)
  5 from $600,000 to $999,999 (5 of 116 total for sale = 4%)
  5 from $1,000,000 & up (5 of 91 total for sale = 5.5%)
The average/median list price of the group is $528,399/$334,900

With just 8% of the homes for sale, distress sales are, for now anyway, 
a fairly light burden to bear. But buyers have a real sweet tooth for foreclosures and short sales and, consequently, they sell at a higher rate, relative to the number available,  than do normal sales.

585 homes sold last year, and 128, or almost 22%, were distress sales.
102 sold from $0 to $599,999 (102 of 441 total sales = 23%)
20 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 (20 of 105 total sales = 19%)
6 sold from $1,000,000 & up (6 of 39 total sales = 15%)

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things are picking up, part 2

on January 9th, in a post titled lackluster, I wrote; lackluster, that describes our tucson foothills real estate market during these first 8 days of 2011, just 4 contracts in 8 days,

then 4 days later, on January 13th, in a post titled, things are picking up, I wrote;
… things have picked up some in the last 4 days and we’re now up to 14 homes in contract,

now, just 2 short days later, I’m happy to report that momentum continues to  build and in just 2 days we’ve gone from 14 to 23 homes in contract.

18 are priced $0 to $599,000
4 are $649,000 to $799,000
but just one is listed at over a million, at $1.2

so things are picking up at the low end, with promising activity in the mid market, but with the same-old apathy at the upper end

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prices are not going up

or, why buyers are not in a rush
Here’s a new home in Sin Vacas, a spec home no less, 3600 sf/.93 acres/4 Beds/
3 Baths/built 2011, so, brand new, maybe not even finished yet/asking $699,900 ($194/sf) It just showed up in the mls, so I haven’t seen it yet. But that’s the lowest price/sf I’ve ever seen for a new home in the foothills. (listed by Realty Executives)

And 04 prices are back in vogue at 6972 E Wild Canyon Place up in Canyon Ridge. It was just listed for $679,000 ($203/sf) and it last sold in 2004 for $655,000.  (listed by Long Realty)

And after 123 days on the market 6549 N Calle De La Lluvia chopped another
$110 thou bringing it to $1,150,000. (listed by Long Realty)

4215 N Saranac, a foreclosure that was a spec home that sold for $750k in 2006,
can now be yours for a mere $449,900 ($139/sf). (listed by Catalina Realty)

And 4140 N La Paloma Drive, on the market just 72 days, has been reduced from $1.325m to $1.150m ($244/sf) (listed by Long Realty)

7110 N Mercer Spring Place, which sold for $940k just 2 1/2 years ago, is, after another $50k price cut, now available for $699,000 ($176/sf) Heck, in 2001 it sold for $645,000. (listed by Long Realty)

In La Paloma, 6321 N Via Acacia left the market at $999,999 in June and returned the other day at $895,000($213/sf). A steal, In my opinion. (Keller Williams Southern Arizona)

In Sunrise Territory Estates, 4621 N Via Masina went for $880k in 07, and is down to $719k this time round, but has yet to find a buyer. (listed by Long Realty)

And 4549 N Hacienda Del Sol was asking $879 then $825 then $799, but no go.
Looking to cut to the chase, it’s back on the market for $585,000 ($177/sf) as a short sale.

And there’s more, but you get the idea.

Then of course there’s always the exception;
6243 N Via De La Tortola sold for $449,500 in 05 and for $522,000 (251/sf) the other day. (listed by long Realty)

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equal time

Robert Schiller on the state of the real estate market,

 www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTAiw8LtIbQ

 I like Robert Schiller. He works hard at understanding the market and thinks seriously about what he says. And unlike the various real estate schills out there, the clowns who’ve always got a good yarn to spin, no matter what, Schiller calls it like he sees it. 

thanks to Alan for sending the link,

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things are picking up

The other day I said,

… lackluster, that describes our tucson foothills real estate market during these first 8 days of 2011, just 4 contracts in 8 days, blah blah blah,

Well things have picked up some in the last 4 days and we’re now up to 14 homes in contract,

Those in contract are priced $240,000 to $1,200,000 or $502,696 average/$387,000 median. Stay tuned

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a high-end contract and a coup for Cimarron

5920 N Via Serena went to contract today. Priced at $1,200,000 Via Serena is the very first million $ contract of the year for the Tucson Foothills, and easily the most expensive home for sale in Cimarron. Bravo! Then again Via Serena seems to have that special something.

It sold for $1,300,000 in 2004 and at the time was the highest price sale ever, through the MLS anyway, in Cimarron. Since then, a newcomer, 6363 E Paseo Otono has come along and claimed the 2nd place mantle, selling for $1,250,000 last April.
You never know.

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how’s the market been treating shadow hills, pima canyon, catalina foothills estates, ventana cyn, la paloma …

as we head into this new year here’s a look at how many homes are for sale, compared to how many homes sold last year, in some of our popular tucson foothills communities. Also included are average/median/$sf prices.

This may come in handy as an easy comparison of prices and sales in different communities, but also as a quick check on how well homes have been selling within each of these communities. Compare the number of homes sold vs the number for sale & the average/median price of those for sale vs those sold -  the larger the gap, the farther apart buyers and sellers are in their expectations.

Sin Vacas
9 for sale - $798,888/$739,000/$205sf
6 sold - $565,467/$547,500/$181sf

Pima Canyon
17 for sale - $2,044,118/$1,850,000/$396sf
8 sold - $1,478,125/$1,620,000/$293sf

Shadow Hills
11 for sale - $544,864/$519,500/$168
19 sold  - $510,574/$475,000/$168sf

Catalina Foothills Estates 9
2 for sale - $689,500/$689,500/$203
10 sold  - $647,700/$602,700/$184sf

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
10 for sale - $1,490,390/$1,397,000/$297
10 sold - $948,020/$956,750/$212sf
no wonder it’s called cat 10

Catalina Foothills Estates (the 1st of the catalina foothills estates, 
sometimes referred to as area 1)
12 for sale - $854,358/$785,000/$201sf
  9 sold - $821,456/$633,600/$230sf

Hacienda del Sol Estates
4 for sale $1,060,500/$999,000/$259sf
5 sold - $620,500/$600,000/$153sf

La Paloma (all of the north side + the villages)
10 for sale  - $644,990/$649,000/$218
10 sold - $614,050/$592,250/$212sf

La Paloma Estates
4 for sale - $1,395,000/$1,395,000/$286
1 sold - $845,000/$845,000/$247sf

Cobblestone
3 for sale - $1,699,333/$1,399,000/$335sf
3 sold - $995,833/$1,000,000/$221sf

Pinnacle Ridge
3 for sale - $826,300/$850,000/$216sf
5 sold  - $684,400/$675,000/$204sf

Cimarron
11 for sale - $577,336/$545,000/$180sf
11 sold  - $582,409/$505,000/$177sf

Fairfield
23 for sale - $489,130/$499,000/$201sf
13 sold  - $412,854/$405,000/$187sf

Ventana Canyon Estates (including Country Club Estates, Lake Estates & Golf Villas)
23 for sale - $883,209/$719,000/$265sf
10 sold  - $687,000/$570,000/$244sf

Ventana Canyon Mountain Estates
1 for sale - $2,295,000/$2,295,000/$452sf
4 sold - $1,837,500/$1,900,000/$351sf

Shadow Hills is at the top of the heap - with terrific sales numbers and sale prices that are, incredibly,  inline with asking prices. That’s rare.
La Paloma also did pretty well, though with 10 homes for sale and 10 sold they’re still looking at a one year supply. But that’s based on last years sales. And I think it’s almost a no brainer that sales will improve this year – with the economy/stock market improving & with lower home prices, plus a good deal of pent-up demand, buyers, in greater numbers, are going to start to look seriously at the market.  Maybe not at the upper-end, the jury’s still out on homes priced over a million, but the rest of the market will do even better this year. 

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to find your Foothills home

this is encouraging

Sales in many vacation communities across the U.S. soared last year to levels not seen since boom times, driven by deep discounts, cash purchases and buyers' rising stock portfolios.

"We haven't felt energy like this in a long time. Buyers sense that they've been on the sidelines long enough."

Some second homes had been stuck on the market because sellers wouldn't budge on price; unlike owners of primary homes, they often aren't in a hurry to move.

"Sellers have become aware that they have to price their homes accordingly," said Harald Grant, a senior vice president at Sotheby's in New York's ritzy Hamptons region. "

read all about it,
from WSJ.com Market for Vacation Homes Is on the Rise

Even though we’ve yet to see a meaningful uptick in sales here in the Tucson foothills, this market usually lags other, larger, or more prominent markets by
3 to 6 months. So we’ll see.

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lackluster

that describes our tucson foothills real estate market during these first 8 days of 2011

just 4 contracts in 8 days, at $269,000, $329,900, $575,000 and $750,000 – all at the low to low-mid price level

leaving 323 homes for sale priced up to $750,000, and 143 from $751,000 to the top of the heap at $6,500,000

and that includes the 61 homes that have been listed since Jan 1 in hopes of seeing a little action in this new year

and the 39 homes that cut their prices, trying a little harder to find a buyer

but without much luck so far

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a very sad day

and right in our own backyard

Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords shot- Vigil at Capitol

Arizona Rep. Giffords Shot in Tucson

Arizona congresswoman Giffords shot

Dr. Manny- Giffords Likely Faces Long Road to Recovery From Head Wound in Shooting

Former Rep. Grayson to Giffords- Gabby, we don't want to lose you

supply continues to outstrip demand

 

It’s early in the game but, in case you’re keeping score, since the 1st of the
year 46 homes have been listed for sale, while just 3 have gone to contract

This is for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills listed through the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service

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the return of Javelina Drive

Javelina Drive the 11,000 sf Mediterranean beauty that sits way up in Skyline Country Club is back on the market today, this time as a foreclosure.

The short history - Javelina Drive sold in 2001 for $2,800,000 off a $3mil list on its very first day on the market. And then in 2004, after having been Gloriously remodeled with the finest of materials, style and character, (according to the listing) it was listed for $4,900,000. And there it remained for the next 6 years or so, with a price cut here and a price cut there. But never going anywhere.
I wrote about it last September > Remembering Javelina Drive

(despite being on the market all that time, it is quite the place.
So blame the lack of a sale on overpricing, I do. Which all began, I’d say, 
with the $2.8 they paid for it in 2001)

It left the market last March, range priced $2,995,000 to $3,995,000.

That’s when mr. lender stepped in and, I’m told, poured some big money into it getting it ready for todays coming out party – and you’re all invited. 

It’s now listed at $2,200,000 ($202/sf) – another one that’s about to chip chip away at the comps (listed by the Santa Maria Realty)

The current listing > 6959 N Javelina Tucson, AZ 85718

I haven’t seen it in years, so I’m going up there today to check it out.

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today, the 5th day of the new year

4912 N Avenida de Castilla, in Hacienda del Sol estates, sold for $1.1mil in October 04 and was listed two years later for $1.395mil. But buyers didn’t go for it so it was downhill from there, with one price cut after another. But still no one wanted it, that is until it was listed for $627k last November as a foreclosure (it left the market 3 weeks earlier still holding out for $1.039) and BINGO!! in a few days there was a little bidding war and it sold today for $690,000 ($181/sf). It’s deals like this that are spoiling buyers for “normal sales” while also continuing to chip-chip chip away at the comps. And wait til 5905 N Camino Escalante closes. So when I hear,  “oh, my sellers, they’re in no rush, they can wait”, I always wonder, why would they want to wait for the market to get even worse before they sell. Come on, the market’s been on the decline for more than 3 years now and high-end foreclosures and short sales are, if anything, increasing. It’s time to get real.  

And then there are those who see opportunity where others dare not tread.
Take this new spec home, the first new spec of 2011. And if not the only spec, then one of the very few in a long long time  > 6101 N Paseo Zaldivar Tucson, AZ 85750 – 1.1 acre/5935 sf/5 Beds/5.5 Baths/1 story/Mediterranean/pool-spa/4 car/$2,150,000 ($363/sf) in Alta Vista.

We’re also starting to see listings that expired in the last few weeks, or the last few months, coming back on the market now that we’re in the in-season.

And some of them are putting their best foot forward,
4851 N Camino Sumo left the market in July at $1,495,000 and returned today at $1,250,000 
and  4932 N Avenida De Castilla was cancelled this morning at $1,149,000 and came back a few minutes later at $999,000

While 2123 E Sentry Ridge Court, a Pima Canyon spec home that’s been around for a while was canceled this morning and relisted a short while later, but at the same price.

And other than new and so-called new listings, there’s not much happening here in the Tucson foothills, just yet, in 2011. The calm before the storm maybe, you think.

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to find your Foothills home

December home sales in the Tucson Foothills

were a mixed bag
Home sales were up nicely from recent months and also measured up pretty well against the entire year, but sale prices were down quite a bit. 
Have a look – the average sale price was the lowest for all 12 months and the median was the 3rd lowest for the year.

when	# sold	Avg sold	Med sold	Avg $/sf	@$1.0+
December	55	$436,337	$382,500	$160	1
November	39	$516,726	$420,000	$155	3
October	30	$491,197	$430,000	$165	1
September	42	$463,250	$360,500	$155	3
August	51	$509,541	$380,000	$170	4
July	53	$490,823	$416,000	$164	3
June	57	$482,010	$412,500	$170	3
May	59	$467,971	$383,000	$167	4
April	47	$514,083	$425,000	$181	5
March	71	$558,571	$400,000	186	5
February	33	$592,330	$483,500	$193	2
January	39	$530,899	$400,000	$172	5

But in November, when sale prices were up, I said - November’s average sale price was better than every month since March and except for last month, the median is higher than every month since April. That said, I still don’t see any real direction or trend to where this market is headed. (November home sales in the Tucson Foothills)  And now, with this latest change of direction, who knows where prices are headed.

But let’s hope that this is finally the year when buyers and sellers start to see eye to eye on prices. That would be real progress.

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Beware buying a home from a divorcing couple

From CNNMoney.com

Marriage break-ups can be tense. And when divorcing couples sell their homes, it's buyer, agent and everyone else beware.

There are about one million divorces a year in the United States and in most cases, there's a home that needs to be sold. That can mean great bargains, because couples divorcing -- like those in foreclosure -- are often among the most motivated of sellers, willing to accept offers below market value.

Still, house hunters may well pay the price in terms of aggravation and time when working with these sellers.

Buyers must wade through the venom generated by the divorce. Often, one spouse is anxious to sell while the other tries to sabotage the deal -- either out of spite or an unwillingness to end the marriage.

Read all about it > Beware buying a home from a divorcing couple

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I don’t recall ever representing buyers who were about to buy from a divorcing couple, but I have represented sellers who were about to enter into a contract to sell to a soon-to-be-divorced husband or wife who was in the midst of a divorce. In those cases I advised my seller clients to stipulate that additional earnest money be put in escrow after the inspection period, and that it be non-refundable. Just in case things didn’t go as planned.

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a new year, another chance

We start the year with 435 single family homes listed for sale in the Tucson Foothills

They’re listed at an average/median list price of $790,869/$559,000
243 are listed from $0 to $599,999
107 are from $600,000 to $999,999
85 are from $1,000,000 & up

But more listings are on the way. About 30 listings expired on January 1st and I expect to see them relisted shortly. And over the next few weeks we should also see a crop of new listings that have been waiting for January to make their debut.

Meanwhile, we’re coming off a year where 583 single family homes sold for an average/median of $502,126/$407,500 – still a long way from the 
$790,869/$559,000 average/median of those listed for sale.

Why the large gap? Because lower priced homes are selling quite well and high priced homes are not - the average list price of the 583 homes that sold was $540,134, which is nowhere near the $790,869 average list of the homes still for sale. 

But there is a  group of buyers out there who are ready to step up and buy a
higher-end home this year. I know that for a fact. I have some of them as clients, as do many other agents. But they’re only going to buy if the home they want is correctly priced for the market we’re in. If it’s not, they’ll wait until it is.

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January 1, 2011

Happy New Year!