TheTucsonFoothills

the SmartMoney's on Tucson

"Not all places are created equal when it comes to weathering economic woes like the current real estate slump, credit crunch and slowing job market. Choosing the wrong place could carry serious ramifications"

From an article in SmartMoney, the Wall Street Journal magazine of personal finance and investing, that has named Tucson, AZ one of the 7 places to retire during an economic downturn.

7 Places to Retire During an Economic Downturn

Unlike other lists of ' best places to do this or that', and because SmartMoney is a magazine of personal finance, the focus here is on choosing cities not only based on lifestyle and a sunny climate and such, but on making a choice that makes good economic sense. 

                "Tucson is a dynamic, growing   retirement spot ..." 

"Expect real estate prices to remain solid, thanks to increasing interest in the area ..."

7 Places to Retire During an Economic Downturn

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to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes

Tucson residential housing report

The Tucson Association of Realtors just released the 2007 yearly market report for residential properties for the entire Tucson area. This is a 28 page report that's chock full of sales data from the Tucson Multiple Listing service.

And this year it's new and improved. It looks at the Tucson real estate market from every which way you can - with more information, more charts and graphs, and more detailed breakdowns of the sales data by area, price range and property type.
It's right from the horses mouth, and it's got it all, the good, the bad and the ugly.

No matter where you are in Tucson - the Tucson Foothills, Oro Valley, Vail, West Tucson, or you're interested in buyiing or selling a home here, and you're into 'the numbers', I think this is as detailed and comprehensive a picture of the Tucson home market as anyone could hope for.
In the report, North (N) is the Tucson Foothills, NW is Oro Valley.
Click this link
Download mls_07_year_end_market_statistics.pdf

And see thefoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills homes

"Tucson in really good years will grow 2.5%, despite ...

I grew up in New York City and then I lived in Chicago for 20+ years. And every square inch of those cities have been paved over and built and re-built since before the beginning of time.
Growth in New York and Chicago meant knocking down a big old building and putting up an even bigger new one.

So I when I moved to the Tucson Foothills in 2000, I wasn't accustomed to seeing the kind of growth that's happening here. 
Oro Valley and the entire Northwest Tucson area, Southeast Tucson and Vail, plus the southwest and west Tucson areas, have grown tremendously in that short time. Where once there was desert - hundreds of homes, miles of roads and homes for Home Depots and Wal Marts have sprung up relentlessly. When you read about big growth in Tucson, those are the areas that you're reading about.

In the Tucson Foothills, which was pretty much built out when I moved here, the last large parcel of land was claimed by
Pima Canyon, the luxury home development built in 2001.
Since then, growth in the Foothills, has and will continue to be limited to the few and quickly diminishing number of good lots, and to what I charitably call, in-fill development. There just isn't any land available.

A recent article in the AZ Daily Star talks about current and future growth in Pima county and what's driving it. Some highlights,
Pima population growth to slow — microscopically
Pima County's rate of population growth will slow in the next seven years, but so slightly — despite the housing downturn — "you won't even notice," says planner David Taylor.
These are the latest forecasts from Taylor, of the Pima Association of Governments, and Marshall Vest, University of Arizona economic and business-research director.

Until at least 2015, annual growth rates will stay over 2 percent, where they've been for a decade-plus. "Tucson in really good years will grow 2.5 percent," Vest said. "In bad years, 2 percent."

The reasons: more retirees are moving here, along with people with "a heckuva lot more money," Vest said. "People are able to move here when they don't have a job, when they don't even need a job."
Some choose Tucson for second homes. The population is aging.

All of that is allowing the population to grow even when the economic slowdown could bring a drop in total jobs, Vest said.

 
And a lot of those retirees, and people with "a heckuva lot more money", choose the Tucson Foothills, because of -Location, Location, Location - there's nothing else like it in Tucson.
And though I have heard rumors that there are people who actually prefer these other areas of Tucson, I've never met one myself.
So as far as I'm concerned, it's just a rumor.

Second homes and retirement homes account for an increasingly large share of the homes that are sold in the Tucson Foothills. And as for the "heckuva lot more money" luxury home market, here's a look at how it's grown in the last 7 years:
In the years 2000 thru 2003, sales of $1mil+ homes in the Tucson Foothills ranged between 24 to 30 homes sold each year.
Then in 2004 that number jumped to 60 homes sold, then to 97 homes in 2005, and to 126 in 2006, about a 400% increase.
Yes, in 2007 that number slipped, to 91 $1mil+ homes sold.
But that's no surprise given the shenanigans of the financial markets and the resulting disappearance of jumbo loans.
 
The Tucson Foothills, along with Northwest and Southeast Tucson, will benefit from the continued growth that we'll see in all of Pima county, but unlike those other areas of Tucson - which will continue to expand out and get bigger and busier with more and more new homes and shopping centers and roads - the Foothills won't grow, and it won't get any bigger, it will just become more and more desirable because of what it has always been and continues to be.

See TheFoothillsToday.com
to search for and learn more about Tucson Foothills Homes,

in the news

Some recent articles about Tucson, the Tucson Foothills and real estate related stuff,

These Relics Could Sink a Sale  WashingtonPost.com
What do wall-to-wall carpeting, two story foyers and trash compactors have in common with bee-hive hair dos?

The upside to the downturn  WSJ.com  (this may require registration)
And just in time to deal with those outdated styles, the housing downturn has made it easier and cheaper to build, remodel, renovate and add-on to your existing home. Amy and Bob Phillips of Tucson, Ariz, began work on a four-bedroom, Adobe-style house in February. With newly lower pricing on a variety of items, including stucco, wood and labor, the Phillips were able to afford upgrades such as solid wood doors, glass doorknobs and steel garage doors on their $800,000 budget.

AC in the winter? Brrrr-rilliant!  CNNMoney.com
With Tucson temperatures now down into the 60's, those hot summer days seem like a hazy memory. But they'll be back, and now's the time to save big on a new AC unit or system.

Foreclosure surge hits every area of Tucson  azstarnet.com
More than 5,000 homes have fallen into foreclosure in the Tucson region during the first nine months of this year, according to foreclosure information service RealtyTrac. That's nearly double the number over the same time last year.

Tucson's "Foreclosure Hot Zones"   KVOA Tucson
Sadly, more on Tucson Foreclosures, highlighting specific zip codes that are experiencing a high level of foreclosures.

Homebuilding industry will come back better and stronger from lessons learned during slowdown  AZBIZ.com
And finally, some words of wisdom from John Strobeck of Bright Future Consultants on the current slowdown and what to do about it.
"I am generally a very positive person," says the man whose firm tracks the local homebuilding industry. "I believe there are ways for us all to get through the current market. It will be a challenge, but we will be stronger on the other side."

dueling sales numbers for Tucson

This week the Arizona Daily Star featured a couple of stories about the state of the housing market in Tucson that have raised a few hairs. Analyst: Housing slowdown will linger until 2010 &
A Bright Future turns gloomy in real estate
Sales statistics and forecasts for a market recovery were quoted from John Strobeck of Bright Futures Business Consultants and from
Judy Lowe, president of the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.
While these reports are not encouraging, keep in mind as you read them, that they include sales for all of the greater Tucson metro area. So they're an average of what's happening all over town, the southeast, northwest, central, etc, etc. And I'm sure that if we looked at individual areas in Tucson (and we'll look at the Foothills later on) that we'd find substantial differences in sales, and in the relative well-being of the market.
If you're buying or selling be sure to find out what's happening in your area.

As reported in the story, Strobeck's numbers indicate that existing home sales in Tucson were down about 18% this September vs September 2006, while new home sales were down about 20%.
Strobeck said, it (the market) might not recover until 2010 if inventory levels remain high and the sales pace stays the same.
He went on to say, tighter mortgage-lending standards, a growing number of foreclosures and other financial problems may have a greater impact on the market in the future.
"It will be at least that long, maybe longer," he said about the 2010 projection and joked that he is now "wearing black all the time."

Judy Lowe's numbers indicate that sales were down about 36% this September vs September 2006. (I assume this includes both existing and new home sales, though the story did not indicate)
Judy Lowe noted that, pending sales — those yet to close — were up more than 32 percent from the same month last year.
"That's an indicator that our closings in six weeks to two months will also be ahead of the closings of the same month a year ago," Lowe said. "To me, that shows the market is no longer in decline."
But, Pending contracts have been up for the past four months, according to the Realtors' report. And the number of sales has still been lower than in the same months in 2006.
Lowe also said, Tucson's growing population and employment will likely help the area emerge from the slowdown before 2010.

Who do you thinks got the better crystal ball. hmm.
Well anyway, there are two issues here that I'd like to touch on.
Reporting sales numbers on a month vs month basis is fine for tracking the very latest twists and turns of the market, but putting too much weight behind what happens in any one 30 day period can be very misleading. The other is that both reports fail to mention that by last September the Tucson metro area was already into the real estate market slowdown, which had started some months earlier.
So comparing this September with September 06, is comparing how much slower this September is than the already slowing September 06.
Ok, here's how the Tucson Foothills area differs from the greater Tucson metro.
For the Tucson Foothills, sales are actually better this September than last, but this is a small niche market within Tucson. 
For perspective, Judy Lowe states that there were 9,190 homes for sale in Tucson in September. In the Foothills there were just 490 homes for sale in September.
In September 2006, 35 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills.
In September 2007, 42 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills, 20% more.
Yeah!
Not so fast,
-from 1/1/2006 thru 9/30/2006, 572 homes sold in the Foothills.
-from 1/1/2007 thru 9/30/2007, 506 homes sold in the Foothills,
11% less.
So sales in the Tucson Foothills have been appreciably better, or less bad, depending on how you look at it, than sales for the greater Tucson metro area. And I predict, and you don't need to be a swami to see it, that it will continue to be better in the Foothills than for the greater metro area.
Why? Because there has been no large scale building, speculative or otherwise, and the accompanying speculative investing, in the Tucson Foothills, like in some other areas of Tucson. So we don't have hordes of investor owned homes sitting empty, with investors now walking away from these homes. Nor do we have big builders slashing prices and driving down the value of existing area homes, because we don't have any big builders doing business in the Foothills.
And there is no land available for future large scale building. Just a few acres here and there. We're now into the realm of teardowns in the Foothills, because there is so little land available, and many of the older homes are worth more for their land, and what can be built on it.

Tucson now in big leagues

In a story in today's Inside Tucson Business, Phillip S. Moore reports that "REITs now consider the Tucson region to be ready for the big leagues when it comes to investment".
And Marshall Vest of the University of Arizona says "The trend toward more attention on the national stage is part of a growth process that’s merging the economies of Tucson and Phoenix, and absorbing other communities along Interstate 10 into a single megalopolis"
Read it here Growth brings Phoenix retail market to Tucson

our feathered friends

Every morning when I get back from walking my dogs we come in the side gate to the yard and all is quiet, there's nothing moving, and not a peep to be heard. And before we go in the house I take a minute to fill the two birdfeeders. Then all hell breaks loose. Within 20 seconds of that birdseed hitting the feeder it looks like an air raid. Wings are flapping, the air's filled with chirping and 2 dozen birds are jockeying for good position. I don't know where they come from or how they know, but all of a sudden they just drop in from nowhere, and for 30 minutes or so they look like the happiest creatures on earth, gorging on a free buffet breakfast. They get a free breakfast and we get a free show. All around it's great way to start the day. This morning, as I watched the birds and read the paper, I came across a story in the Arizona Daily Star, Tourists dig birds, wildlife. It's all about people who come here from all over the country and the world to spend a week or two observing nature and the many varieties of birds that are native to Southern Arizona. For us it's part of our morning routine, but we don't take it completely for granted, we've lived in N.Y., L.A. and Chicago, and we're very aware that it's just another one of the really great things about living in Tucson.

more good news for Tucson

Over the last few weeks we've had a sudden run of good news on the economic and real estate fronts for Tucson and for Arizona overall. I first started picking this up with my post Tucson, one of the hottest markets , then again in Arizona, the fastest growing state, and more recently in Real Estate USA, today where Ken Harney of The Washington Post concluded that the market correction had run its course. And now some very upbeat news from Arizona business leaders along with a buyer/seller survey predicting a 10% increase in Arizona property values in 2007. That's very upbeat news.
In an article in the Arizona Daily Star Richard Ducote reports on the results of a Compass Bank Arizona Business Leaders Confidence survey - Arizona business survey shows spike in confidence
Confidence in the economy is on the upswing among Arizona business leaders, a new quarterly survey showed. "Arizona's economy has continued to perform very well in spite of the downdraft from housing markets," said Marshall Vest, director of economic and business research at the University of Arizona's Eller College of Management. Tucson panel members were the most optimistic, registering the highest readings in five of the six categories, Vest said.
And from yet another survey, this one reported by RISmedia. Arizona Real Estate Buyers & Sellers Forecast 10% Increase in Property Values in 2007
'In Q4 2006, Arizona Tax Liens.com surveyed 5,000 buyers and sellers of Arizona real estate to determine what they expected of Arizona property values in 2007. The survey showed that buyers and sellers foresee an increase of 10% in Arizona property values in 2007 due to the large number of people immigrating to Arizona, which is being fueled by high tech and biotech job growth in Tucson & Phoenix, low housing costs and baby boomers buying their retirement homes. 52% of the buyers surveyed plan on buying in Tucson, 29% plan on buying in Phoenix, 12% plan on buying in Flagstaff, 4% plan on buying in Prescott and the remaining 3% plan on buying in other areas of Arizona'.
Kendra Todd nailed this early-on (early-on was just over a month ago - but it seems that conditions change that quickly) with her piece on Yahoo.com Best Places in The U.S. To Buy A Home. In naming Tucson one of the six best places in the US to buy a home she cited some key criteria: A strong local economy, A "wow" factor that attracts people, and Solid in-migration to the area - all of which have existed for some time, but are suddenly being discovered and ballyhooed by these more recent surveys and reports.

around Tucson

Here are a few News blurbs about goings-on around Tucson, including the first one about a Wal-Mart opening in the Foothills, yes you heard right, Wal-Mart in the Foothills, oh my
Foothills Wal-Mart grocery in the works
Now the retailer is casting its gaze toward the Catalina Foothills for one of its neighborhood groceries 

And Speaking of the greater Tucson metro
Economic growth may back off a bit 

Housing market, spending, temper outlook, expert says

Tucson Housing market cools
With cold weather comes a seasonally cooler real estate market

Housing Market Normal, in Sahuarita
Hot times cooling down in Sahuarita, but things are far from bad, analyst says

Developer negotiates on Painted Hills plans
The developer of a prized piece of the Tucson Mountain foothills says he's going to save 70 percent of the property

Tucson's growing

National brands, major retailers and high-end specialty stores have been keeping an eye on Tucson, while many of them have already opened stores here. And that's a pretty good vote of faith in the vitality of the Old Pueblo, as these stores do a fair amount of research before they commit to a new city.
From the Arizona Daily Star, Big-name stores like what they see here
Having shopping options is nice, but I just hope that Tucson doesn't become overrun with a slew national brands that end up driving out our very special local stores, and some of the charm and character that is Tucson, in the bargain.