TheTucsonFoothills

in contract last week,

That’s from Monday 5/21 thru Sunday 5/27

18 single family homes went to contract - fewer than in the recent past and two of them have already fallen out of contract, leaving just 16 new contracts.

12 of them are priced from $219,000 to $590,000

then one each at $739,000, $999,900, $1,350,000 & $1,450,000.
So fewer contracts overall but at least we’re still seeing some action at a million and up.

16 to contract

for contracts from the previous week 5/14 – 5/20 see > in contract this past week, 5/20

And there’s no doubt that fewer homes are going to contract due to the low supply of homes in some price ranges. I face it every day with buyers I’m working with as do many other agents. And as a result it appears that some buyers are now more willing to compromise and are putting homes in contract that in the past were bypassed for one reason or another  – because of an iffy location or a difficult floor plan. Things like that that are difficult or impossible to change.

We’re at a new low, just 291 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills.

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to find your Catalina Foothills home

the last hurrah

Traditionally Memorial Day is the end of our high-season for home sales here in the Tucson foothills. Not that everyone closes up shop and stops buying and selling but the pace of sales does slow down for the summer months. And it usually slows more for homes at the higher price ranges, where we can least afford a slowdown. So as we enter the triple digit months it’s a good time to recap where the market stands.

There are 299 single family homes for sale - with a measly 14 of them as distress sales  (9 short sales & 5 foreclosures or 4.7% of total inventory) And by the way, is the alleged shadow inventory ever going to show its face. 

164 of them are listed from $0 to $599,999
68 from $600,000 to $999,000
31 from $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
17 from $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
19 from $2,000,000 & up

287 homes sold since Jan 1 – with 53 distress sales (21 short sales & 32 foreclosures or 18.5% of total sales)

228 sold from $0 to $599,999
35 from $600,000 to $999,999
17 from $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
  7 from $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
  0 from $2,000,000 & up (though there are 2 in escrow listed at over $2mil)

So the bottom of the market is the place to be - with 168 homes for sale and 228 sold in 5 and a half months there’s a very lean 4 month supply of homes
Moving on up to $600k were looking at a 10.5 month supply
At $1.0 to $1.499 it also works out to about 10 months
$1.5 to $1.999 is up to 13 months
and at $2.0 & up it’s still anyone’s guess

all told they sold for an average/median of $473,147/$368,000 @ average of $161/sf

during the same period last year,
252 homes sold for an average/median of $478,936/$413,000 @ average of $165/sf

So a few more homes sold this year than last but they sold for a few dollars less

Have a Happy Memorial Day!

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

in contract this past week, 5/20

27 single family homes went to contract in the Tucson Foothills since Monday 5/14

21 are priced from $135,000 to $599,000

then one each at $624,000, $699,000, $700,000, $775,000 & $975,000(a short sale)  
Plus the outlier at $2,495,000 on Barrel Cactus.

see for yourself > 27 in contract 

pretty much the same results as the week before and, once again, except for B Cactus, it was another dry week in the million+ range – while 42 remain for sale from $1.0 to $1.750 & more above that.

One of the things clogging the pipeline is that many upper-end homes are still holding out for yesterdays prices. No, you say, not after all this time. Yes, after all this time.
Why. Because they want to and because they can.

see the previous week’s numbers (May 7 – 13) > in contract this past week

Meanwhile, the good news is we’re down to 296 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills. And the bad news is we’re down to 296 single … with about half as many for sale from a million & up (70) than there were a few years ago. And that’s an issue as well.
Not enough homes and not enough well-priced homes to choose from, and no high-end foreclosure action to keep buyers on the edge of their seats either.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

in contract this past week

24 single family homes went to contract in the Tucson Foothills since Monday 5/7

20 of them were priced from $195,000 to $599,900

then one at $724,900 (a short sale), one at $899,000 and two at $995,000.

see for yourself > 24 in contract

That’s not a bad haul for the week, as long as you’re not one of the homes listed for more than $995 - there are 75 of them, priced from $996,000 to $15,900,000.

Meanwhile the inventory continues to drop, we’re down to just 303 homes for sale.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

not everything is selling like hotcakes

Up to about $1.5mil the Tucson Foothills real estate market has been doing
pretty well this year.

At the lower end of the foothills market, from $0 to $599,999
there are 168 homes for sale
112 are currently in contract
and 204 homes have sold since Jan 1
which works out to an extremely lean 3 1/2 month supply

moving up a notch to $600,000 to $999,999
there are 68 for sale
24 currently in contract
and 35 sold since Jan 1
which equals an 8 month supply, not bad at all, and with 24 in contract
it sure looks like this price range is still attracting buyers

in the 7 figures range,

at $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
there are 29 for sale
just 4 in contract
but 17 sold since Jan 1
so just over a 7 month supply, very encouraging if you’re a seller, but with just 4 in contract 
I can’t help wondering if interest isn’t waning

at $1,500,000 to $1,999,999 the clouds start rolling in

there are 19 for sale
just 1 in contract
and 7 sold = an 11 month supply. Not so good and, again, with just 1 in contract you have to wonder

and at $2,000,0000 & up there’s no wondering

there are 21 for sale (and most have been for sale for eons)
1 lucky homeowner is in contract
but not a single home sold this year
so it’s anyone’s guess how long it’ll take to even make a dent in this group

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

April home sales in the Tucson Foothills

Sales and sale prices held up nicely in April - 73 single family homes sold at an average/median of $473,568/$389,000.

Unit sales in April were on a par with March, when 76 sold, and ahead, and often well ahead, 
of every other month going back to January 2011.

 

And while the average sale price is up a tad from last month, it’s down from most prior months and down from where it was last year at this time. But median prices shot up and are higher this month than every month going back to last July – because pricey homes are selling again. 

And it’s not hard to see that IF sales continue to be strong that prices will increase.

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to find your Catalina Foothills home

sold sold sold

A reader wrote in commenting that I only write about some of the homes that sell in the foothills and not others.

That’s correct. I only write about the homes I think are noteworthy, interesting or representative of the market for one reason or another. And even if I wanted to I wouldn’t have time to write about all the homes that sell each month. And anyway, how tedious, who’d want to read it.

But I do regularly offer sales data for all the homes sold. And if you would like to see the SOLD listings of all the homes sold in the past 30 days (with pictures, details, prices, etc)  click over to my website > http://www.thefoothillstoday.com/ < and click >  JUST- Listed, Sold & Reduced

I try to update the Just Sold link everyday but it usually ends up being every few days.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

sold prices vs. list prices vs. everything else

Since the 1st of the year 218 homes have sold in the Tucson Foothills.
Their average/median sold price was $474,556/$364,000. And at the time of contract they were listed at an average/median of $503,561/$379,000. So they sold for 94.2% of the average list price and 96% of the median. And that’s an indication of a pretty strong market.

Meanwhile there are 330 homes for sale, and they’re listed at an average/median of
$898,019/$577,000. A whopping 78% higher than the average and 52% higher than the median of those that sold.

So while the homes that are selling are selling comfortably close to list price, there’s a whole tier of homes at the upper-upper range – from approximately  $1.6 and up – that have yet to see much, if any, action. And above $2.0 it’s a graveyard.

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to find your Catalina Foothills home

in your favorite Catalina Foothills subdivision

Looking at the overall foothills market, right now there are 337 homes for sale at a median list price of $589,000. And 201 homes have sold since Jan 1 at a median sold price of $365,000 - leaving the foothills with a very normal and balanced 5.8 month supply of homes.

But looking at individual subdivisions or communities in the foothills we see that some are doing better and benefitting more than others from the recent upswing in sales.
In general lower priced homes are selling better than their higher priced neighbors.
But Pima Canyon and Catalina Foothills Est 10 and Skyline CC are high-end communities that are doing nearly as well or better than other areas, regardless of price. While Shadow Hills, a more moderately priced community where, until recently, homes were flying off the shelf, appears to have lost its footing. But I’ll bet not for long. And in the Catalina Foothills Estates, where foothills living began, with the homes priced from the mid $2’s to the $$$$ millions, it’s a sellers market. And then there are those few communities that are doing nothing at all.
It’s very mixed bag, where no single community even resembles the overall foothills market.

See for yourself, here’s market data for a number of popular foothills subdivisions, showing,   the Subdivision > the # of single family homes for sale > Median List price >  the # of homes sold since Jan 1 > Median Sold price > and the months of inventory (MOI) for each. 

Subdivision	# for sale	Med List $	# sold	Med Sold	MOI
Shadow Hills	8	$472,000	2	$508,000	14
Pima Cyn	10	$1,674,500	8	$1,017,500	4.4
Catalina Foothills Est 1-9	13	$679,500	20	$542,250	2.3
Cat 10	7	$999,999	3	$1,150,000	8+
La Paloma Est	4	$1,045,000	1	$1,750,000	14
La Paloma (other than Est)	18	$490,000	4	$469,050	16
Cobblestone	7	$1,350,000	0	$0	?
Canyons	6	$3,225,000	0	$0	?
Hacienda del Sol Est	5	$995,000	0	$0	?
Foothills ll	2	$989,500	2	$1,327,250	3.5
Skyline CC	9	$1,100,000	7	$700,000	4.5
Alta Vista	15	$955,000	2	$830,000	26
Cimarron	11	$479,000	2	$389,925	19+
Fairfield	12	457,500	5	$360,000	8.4
Ventana Cyn Golf Villlas	8	$439,500	5	$330,000	5.6
Ventana CC, Cyn Est, Whlbck.	18	$999,250	4	$1,205,000	16
Ventana Cyn Mountain Est	6	$2,122,000	1	$1,700,000	21

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

it’s not just in the foothills,

Here are some sales statistics for March from the Tucson Association of Realtors.
Keep in mind, these numbers are for the entire Tucson metro area and include single family homes, condos, townhomes and manufactured homes. And I think that’s it.

- Total Sales Volume increased significantly in March by 39.13% over February, and is up  21.96% from March 2011.

- Average Sales Price is up 2.21% from February.

- Average List Price increased from $171,723 in February to $173,890 in March.

- Under Contract increased 6.07% over February and 29.04% over March 2011.

- Total Unit Sales rose 36.11% over February are up 18.65% over March 2011.

the market is turning all across the greater Tucson area.

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to find your Catalina Foothills home

how close to asking price are homes selling

Well it depends how you look at it but here’s a look at single family home sales from Jan 1 through April 11 - broken down by normal sales, short sales and foreclosures.

there were;
157 were normal (non-distress) sales and they sold for an average of 94.91% of list price.

there were 14 were short sales and they sold for 94.90% of list price

and there were 22 foreclosures and they sold for 97.97% of list price

Pretty cheerful statistics wouldn’t you say.  But, sad to say, the only ones that present an accurate picture of their little corner of the market are the foreclosure and possibly, and to a lesser extent, the short sale numbers. That’s because many, even most, of them sell from their original list price without the need for price cuts or re-listings.

While many of the normal sales have been reduced umpteen times before they attract a buyer and go to contract.  And the percentages are calculated based on the last list price, that is, the list price at the time of contract, after any and all price reductions and re-listings.

So if your favorite hacienda started out listed at $1,000,000, and was reduced to $900k, then to $800k then  $750k – and finally sold for $725k -  the % of  sale price/list price will show up in MLS statistics as having sold for 96.6% of list price – $725 is 96.6% of $750.  Which of course leads you to believe that everything is honky dory and buyers and sellers are in close accord on prices - which of course in pure bunk – completely ignoring  that it sold for 72.5% of original list price, and had a helluva a time getting there.

Were the stats to show the % of sale price/original list price, and also show % of sale price/list price (at time of contract) they  would present a much more complete and accurate picture of the market for both buyers and sellers. But that’s not the way it is in real estate land.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

sales are up, prices are down

March home sales were at a high for the past 15 months, while March home sale prices are amongst the lowest for the past 15 months. Because sellers continue to reduce their prices
to reflect today’s market values, and buyers are buying them, and ignoring the rest.

 

 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

1st quarter home sales in the Tucson Foothills

The following sales data are for single family homes sold through the Tucson Association of Realtors from January 1 thru March 31 for this year and years past.
year  # sold @ average & median sold price

2012   171  @ $470,486 - $358,900

2011   151  @ $462,944 - $400,000

2010   143  @ $558,815 - $439,000

2009   109  @ $530,765 – $445,000

2008   124  @ $715,687 – $538,750

2007   140  @ $683,288 – $540,000

2006   202  @ $744,496 – $580,000

So, for the 1st quarter, sales are higher than in every year since 2006. yeah!
And prices are hovering, but we’ll have to wait another quarter to see where they’ve settled.
I think they have settled, but we’ll see.

And in the ‘listed at million$$ +’ category, last year 10 sold in the 1st quarter, and this year 15 sold. So that’s not too shabby either.

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to find your Foothills home

March home sales in the Tucson Foothills

March is the heart of the home buying/selling season, so there are no excuses for poor performance. Sales should be UP from previous months, and they are, thank goodness.
Just 36 homes sold in January and 53 in Feb, but in March we saw 74 sales.

So here’s a look at March sales, for this year and years past. 

March 2012
76 sold
median sold $ - 352,500

March 2011
61 sold
median sold $ – 415,000

March 2010
71 sold
median sold $ – 400,000

March 2009
42 sold
median sold $ – 425,000

March 2008
51 sold
median sold $ – 560,000

March 2007
61 sold
median sold $ – 595,000

March 2006
83 sold
median sold $ – 640,000

So sales are doing well. But make no mistake, it’s all happening on the backs of sharply reduced prices. While those still holding out for yesterdays prices are going nowhere. 

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to find your Foothills home

well at least lower priced homes are still flying off the shelf

In the last 2 days 11 homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills. But they’re all priced from $150,000 to $489,000 – at the low end of the market – which has been going great guns for more than a year now. So no worries there.

But not a single contract for the more than 200 homes priced from $490,000 to $15,900,000 – where we really need it.

And the other day I noted; Things were barreling along until about a week ago but now there’s  been a dip in the action, just 12 homes to contract. (in 6 days, and 9 of them topped out at $550k. Then 1 each at $699, $749 and a possible record breaker (once it closes) at $2.995)
But one record breaker does not make the market.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

 

the rise and fall and rise (maybe) of million $$ home sales

For the period of January 1 thru March 25 for homes listed at $1.0m & up,

12 sold this year  (71 remain for sale)

6 in 2011

11 in 2010

11 in 2009

17 in 2008

15 in 2007

35 in 2006

21 in 2005

12 in 2004

2 in 2003

4 in 2002

4 in 2001

2 in 2000

There were many fewer million $$$ homes in the foothills before 2005 or so. And since then the growth in higher-end homes is largely due to Pima Canyon. It got going in 2001 and over the years it added a couple of hundred high-end homes to the mix, and along the way it put the Tucson Foothills firmly on the map as a destination for luxe living in the southwest.

And the quick success of PC encouraged others, some with talent and ability and some who could barely swing a hammer, to put up high-end homes anywhere they could squeeze one in in the Foothills. And most of it on spec. And then the music stopped and here we are, still trying to work off the excess.

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if you missed it the first time

4820 N Via De La Granja is back on the market. Listed in mid January for $895, and dropped to $845, it went to contract last week and is back in play today. It’s a Tyson, but less of a typical looking Tyson than most.

4820 N Via De La Granja Tucson, AZ 85718 (in Catalina Foothills Estates 10)
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

Cat 10 as well has had a dramatic turnaround from where it was a few years ago.

Currently there are 6 homes for sale from $845k to $1,295,000 – 4 in contract from $894 to $1,595,000 – and 5 sold (last 6 months) from $641k to $1,150,000.

In December 09 there were 15 for sale priced from $1,000,000 to $2,650,000 (four of them were over $2.0mil)  and just 4 sold in the previous 11 months, and all 4 sold for under a million.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your home in Catalina Foothills Estates 10

it looks like mid to upper-end buyers are taking a break

Since Saturday just 8 homes have gone to contract, and they’re all priced from $189,000 to $599,000. So not even a mention for the 149 homes priced from $600k to the stratosphere.

a (not so) fun fact-  when was the last time a home sold for $2.0m or more.

a fire sale in Pima Canyon that had been reduced from $4.950 to $2.250 sold as a short sale for $2.325 (a major good deal) in December. And before that it was a house in the Mountain Estates at Ventana. It was on the market for 3 years and over that time was reduced from $4.5 to $2.395 and sold for $2.2 last July. That’s it.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

Zillow’s zestimates & Tucson Foothills homes

Until recently I’ve been very critical of Zillow’s zestimates, terming them useless and worse. Dangerous really, because so often they were so off target, yet people were using them to value their own homes and homes they were interested in buying.

But more recently I’ve noticed that zestimates have improved and are more accurate than they were. And I said so – HERE  But the question is, are they accurate enough to start using them as a guide to home prices here in the foothills.

I’ve gotten some pretty awful ‘professional appraisals’ lately – and many other agents have as well -  and they cost $500 or more, but they’re also way more dangerous than a zestimate. They’re lethal really. Because everyone, including the lender, regards them as the sacred source for reliable home valuations. And often they’re not at all accurate or reliable, and often they’re not even close. And much of that is thanks to the really smart, fair and efficient new system we’re stuck with for choosing appraisers that’s been imposed by Obama-Dodd-Frank. We often end up  with an appraiser who’s never stepped foot in the foothills, or who has barely. Someone who, if you spun them around, couldn’t find their way from Craycroft to Swan without a map and a compass. And that’s who’s been anointed to value the highest dollar transaction of your lifetime. Don’t get me started.

So back to zillow, here’s another look at the actual sold price vs. the zestimate on a dozen homes that sold since March 1 in the Tucson Foothills. And I think zillow’s doing pretty good, but you be the judge,

4927 N Louis River Way Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $385,000
Z – $376,200 (home run)

6745 N Shadow Run Drive Tucson, AZ 85704
sold – $425,000 (btw, sold for list price)
Z - $391,400

6306 N Calle Del Halcon Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $463,100
Z - $464,200 (out of the park)

4750 N Calle Desecada Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $482,500
Z – $354,600 (struck out)

2681 E Miraval Place Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $500,000
Z – $492,400 (home run)

6752 N Altos Primero Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $595,000
Z - $629,900

4949 N Camino Antonio Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $700,000
Z - $1,008,800 oh, if only it were true

6456 N Desert Wind Circle , Tucson, AZ 85750
sold – $925,000
Z - $831,100 (no cigar)

1886 E Quiet Canyon Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $950,000
Z – $844,900 (yourrrre out)

5122 N Soledad Primera Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $900,000
Z - $865,200 (triple)

4803 E PLACITA PROVIDA Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $1,010,000
Z - $930,700

1347 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
sold – $1,075,000
Z – $1,028,000 (home run)

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

more Pima Canyon news

yesterday I wrote that more homes are selling in Pima Canyon. And now I see that they’re selling faster too.

After just 2 days on the market 1980 E Desert Garden Drive is in contract. And it wasn’t one of those el cheapo fire sale properties either.

It sold 8 months ago for $950,000 and who knows why, but it was listed 2 days ago for $1,049,000. ($311/sf)  And it’s gone.

 

1980 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

That leaves 11 homes for sale In Pima Cyn + 5 under contract & 9 sold in the last 6 months.  
A dramatic improvement from where things were.

- three years ago it looked pretty grim, there were 26 homes for sale, just 2 sold in 6 months and not a single home under contract -  what's happening in Pima Canyon - (Feb 2009)

- and just a over a year ago I wrote - On the supply side, there are 18 homes for sale in Pima Canyon. On the demand side, 2 homes have sold in PC in the last 6 months - and there’s nothing in contract. looking at Pima Canyon today 

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to find your Pima Canyon  home

more homes are selling in Pima Canyon

Looking at the past 6 months – from mid-September thru today mid-March

9 homes have sold in PC

in the same 6 month period in 2010/2011  2 homes sold

in the same 6 month period in 2009/2010  6 homes sold

and in the same 6 month period in 2008/2009 2 homes sold

So 9 homes sold in the previous 6 months and a total of 10 sold in the same 6 month period during the previous 3 years.

more homes are selling in Pima Canyon 

And they’re selling because many list prices have finally been sharply reduced to reflect current market values. But there are still some holdouts.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

fewer short sales and foreclosures

we’ve never had all that many to begin with, but now there are even less

there are 23 for sale in the foothills today, that’s single family short sales &  foreclosures

last month there were 32

last September there were 44

last February there were 42

June 2010 there were 46 at the beginning of the month and 56 at the end

November 2009 there were 28

Of the 23 for sale today 20 are priced from $174,9000 to $549,000
then 1 each at $760,000, $900,000 and $985,000

slim pickins

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there goes the neighborhood

first it was 7303 N Mystic Canyon Drive. Last month it sold for $740,000, the cheapest sale in PC in eons – actually in 9 years, and that’s including foreclosures, short sales and tree houses.

And now its neighbor at 7373 N Mystic Canyon Drive just dropped their asking price to $749,000, and who knows what it will sell for, even though it sold for $800,000 11 years ago.
Yes on a gorgeous day in March 2001, a day very much like today though more innocent and care free. 

But not to worry, PC is holding its own. 15 homes sold in there since Jan 1, 2011, 
and they were listed at an average/median of $1,389,127/$1,250,000 and sold at avg./med of
$1,299,882/$1,200,000. So pretty close agreement between list and sold prices. (note of course the list price is the latest list, after being relisted 1, 2 or umpteen times & after all price reductions, rebates and coupons – so we’re seeing the stripped down list price)

Meanwhile there are 12 for sale and they’re listed at an average/median of $1,760,833/$1,497,500 – so still a pretty good size gap between the list price of homes that are selling vs. those still waiting for a buyer to grace their threshold.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

supply & demand in the Tucson Foothills

I’ve been going on lately about the tightening supply of homes for sale and thought it would be a good idea to provide some numbers to explain the chatter.

right now there’s a 5.5 month supply of single family homes in the foothills
342 for sale ÷ 62 *sold = 5.5 months, which is considered a balanced market, with happy buyers and sellers (* last 30 days) Yeah Sure.

But as usual it’s quite a different story when broken down by price range;

$0 – $599 is squeaky tight at 3.8 months supply (193 for sale/51 sold)
with buyers now doing battle over the choicest homes

$600 – $999 is bloated at 13 months (78 for sale/6 sold)

$1.0m – $1.499 is 9 months (27 for sale/3 sold)

$1.5m – $1.999 is 11.5 (23 for sale/2 sold)

$2.0m & UP is anyone’s guess (21 for sale/0 sold)

So while the entire foothills is at 5.5 months inventory, that is, as you can see, misleading and due largely to the $0 to $599 range doing as well as it is and pulling the numbers down.
But still, this is a huge improvement from where we’ve been. 

In March 2011 there was a 7.9 month supply (475 for sale/60 sold)
In March 2010 there was a 9.7 months supply (496 for sale/51 sold)
In March 2009 there was a 12.8 month supply (564 for sale/44 sold)
In March 2008 it was 12.2 months (546 for sale/42 sold)

And there have been a slew of homes in the $600k to $1.5m range that have gone to contract in the last few weeks. And when they close, those sales will put an even more cheerful spin on the supply & demand numbers.That is unless you’re a buyer who’s been waiting for more supply and less demand.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

the weekend’s haul

7 11 contracts so far, pretty good, except that 10 of them are huddled in the $100k to $550k range and then 1 at $1,199,000. Meanwhile, the inventory of those for sale spreads out from $159k to $5.2mil, then jumps to $7,900,000 for one house and to $15,900,000 for another.

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what’s the score in Cobblestone

A new listing today - 3420 E Finger Rock Circle $1,295,000 ($336/sf) – brings it to 6 homes
for sale including the big kahuna, Campbell Cliffs weighing in at $15,900,000.  
(both listed by Long Realty)

There’ve been two sales in the last six months – at $1,170,000 ($304/sf) & $1,300,000 ($319/sf) and there’s nothing in contract. So, doing the math, that tells us there is now an 18 month supply of homes in Cobblestone. A hefty supply, unless demand suddenly surges.

But here’s a fun fact – in the last 6 months 289 single family homes sold in the entire Tucson foothills, but just 3 of them sold for $300/sf or more. And two of them were those two sales in Cobblestone. Then one in Ventana at the Mountain Estates. And that’s it. So there.

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in contract since Feb 29

33 single family homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills

24 from $200,000 to $549,900 (195 remain for sale in this price range)

6 from $625,000 to $949,000  (84 for sale)

3 over a mil, at $1.1, $1.195 & $1.595 ((69 for sale)

Including the new contracts noted above and all other existing contracts, there are 147 homes in contract in the foothills today – while 348 remain for sale.

the Feb 29 ‘in contract …’ report is HERE

Enjoy!

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85718 at a glance

First up, the number of listings,
March 2011 -  Feb 2012

 

Next, the Absorption Rate. Another way of saying- months of inventory – MOI - how long it will take to sell all the homes currently on the market at the current rate of sales, assuming no new listings – considered by those in the know to be a key indicator of the health of the market.
Approx 6 months of inventory considered a balance market. We’re dangerously close.

 

And finally, Days on Market (DOM) & Cumulative Days on Market (CDOM).
The difference is that if a home was listed and then taken off the market and then relisted (within 30 days) CDOM includes the accumulated days from the 1st and 2nd listing,  and the 3rd if there is a 3rd, until the time it goes to contract. 
While DOM resets every time a home gets taken off the market and relisted.
Does that make sense.
And notice the rather large gap between CDOM - the real indicator of how long it’s taken for homes to sell - and the-pie-in-the-sky DOM. Though that too has narrowed in the last few months.

 

As you can see everything is trending down (which in this case is not necessarily a bad thing, though it would be nice to have a few more listings to choose from) – there’s less inventory, the absorption rate is down and CDOM has recovered from those sluggish days of late last summer.

These charts are showing us that the market is improving, getting stronger - (though how you see it may depend on whether you’re a buyer or a seller) - lower inventory puts sellers in a stronger position and buyers in a weaker one. 

And little by little it is becoming less of a buyers market and more of a balanced market.
Then what.

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trouble in paradise

Unlike much of the Tucson Foothills market, which lately has shown some encouraging signs of life, at $2 mil + it is deadsville. Well, that is, except for the occasional fire sale.

And there’ve been just two such fire sales in the last six months.
And both closed in December and both were deeply discounted short sales. One went for $1,400,000 from a one-time high of $4,450,000. The other for $2,325,000, from an original list of $4,950,000. But that’s it, except of course for the 20 homes for sale at $2 mil +, more than a few of which have been at it for two or three or more years. How much longer can that go on.

And apparently we’re not alone in this high-end mess. According to Realtytrac since 2007 foreclosure activity for homes valued at more than $2 million  jumped by 273%. 
Meanwhile, the share of foreclosures on mid-range properties valued between $500,000 and $1 million fell by 21%

But there may still be time because according to the Wall Street Journal lenders are slower to foreclose on higher priced homes -  For the Costliest Homes, Foreclosure Comes Slowly 
But time for what I’m not sure.

There are several reasons why holders of large mortgages are able to stay in place longer. A key factor is that banks tend to keep larger mortgages on their books, while smaller mortgages are more likely to be bundled into securities and later resold to investors with backing from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie and Freddie, the government-controlled mortgage giants, have set strict foreclosure timelines and will fine mortgage servicers that are found to be needlessly delaying the foreclosure process.

Mortgage companies may also be more flexible with borrowers because they may have more assets and better prospects of recovering. "The banks have hope for the wealthy—of future employment, additional income or bonuses as the market comes back," says Genevieve Salvatore, a Connecticut real-estate lawyer who represents delinquent borrowers as part of her practice.

Economists say banks are also more reluctant to foreclose on high-end properties because they are expensive to maintain and take longer to sell.

What's more, wealthier borrowers tend to be more sophisticated at stalling foreclosure by hiring attorneys. "It's cheaper to pay a monthly retainer to a lawyer than a $20,000 mortgage payment on an underwater loan," says Christopher Fountain, a Greenwich, Conn., real-estate broker.

Private-equity investor Paul Parmar lives in a 40,000-square-foot mansion in Colts Neck, N.J. His estate boasts a putting green, two bowling lanes and a Bali-esque "beach" with Tiki huts and sand. He also has a $23.7 million mortgage with Deutsche Bank, which hasn't received a payment from Mr. Parmar in nearly three years.

Despite Deutsche Bank's efforts to remove him, Mr. Parmar has remained in his compound while fighting the bank in a protracted legal battle.

Mr. Parmar had fought a foreclosure ruling by a state Supreme Court judge in favor of Deutsche Bank, claiming in court papers that the bank improperly handled the foreclosure proceedings.

Mr. Parmar says he initially stopped making mortgage payments of more than $54,000 a month because of another, unrelated business dispute, which he says froze his assets and bank accounts. When the dispute was resolved last fall, he deposited into escrow the more than $2 million he says Deutsche Bank requested to cover his mortgage payments, taxes, fees and Deutsche Bank expenses, court filings show.

Mr. Parmar says his settlement with Deutsche Bank will be filed with the court within the next week. "I've agreed to pay each and every dollar they asked for," he says.
_____________________________________________________________________

High-end defaults are much in the news lately – so while we’re at it here’s one last piece from CNNMoney.com

'How we're losing our multi-million dollar home'

Meanwhile other expenses were also piling up, including the couple's mortgage payment, which was more than $7,000 a month. They had gone to their lender, CitiMortgage, to ask them to modify the mortgage on their home, which was then valued at $3 million. But the bank refused.

Eventually, the Buchanans just stopped paying their mortgage. John said he hoped it would get the bank's attention. It has been almost 30 months since they last made a payment, meaning the couple is more than $210,000 behind on their mortgage.
____________________________________________________________________

February home sales

In February we’re just getting into the swing of our season here in the foothills. We’re seeing sales from deals that were made in December and January, which are both so-so months for deal making. But now through June are our busiest months, so there’ll be no more excuses. 

here’s a look at how this February measures up to past Februarys  
(for January sales, see - January home sales in the Tucson Foothills <

Feb 2012
53 sold
median sale price – $368,000 

Feb 2011
55 sold
median sale price – $350,000

Feb 2010
33 sold
median sale price – $483,500

Feb 2009
43 sold
median sale price – $485,000

Feb 2008
30 sold
median sale price – $565,000

Feb 2007
37 sold
median sale price – $525,000

Feb 2006
65 sold
median sale price – $535,000

Feb 2005
78 sold
median sale price – $505,077

Feb 2004
54 sold
median sale price - $386,000

Feb 2003
65 sold
median sale price – $350,000

hip-hip hooray, this February posted the first increase in median prices since Feb 2008. 
And that puts us somewhere between where prices were in 2003 – 2004. Isn’t that comforting.

And yes, very recently we’ve seen an increase in activity. But the vast majority of it is being driven by sharply lower prices. And also, I think, by some pent up demand. But, in addition to what I see happening in the marketplace, my own experience with buyers tells me that while they are much less concerned than they were about prices falling further, they are still very concerned that homes be priced right. 

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price it right and sell it fast, or don’t

In Ventana Reserve, 6042 N Indian Trail was listed in late December for $999,000 and closed escrow yesterday for $950,000 ($209/sf),  and it sold for 95% of list price. With nary a price cut.

6042 N Indian Trail Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

No such luck over at 7303 N Mystic Canyon Drive in Pima Canyon. It started out two years ago at $1,127,000, and while it also closed yesterday it went for just $740,000 ($205/sf) -  after two years of price cuts and finally getting down to a $799,900 list price – just 66% of the original list price, but 92% of the latest list price.

7303 N Mystic Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br)

And PS-  Mystic Canyon will go down in the books as having sold for 92% of list price, because, as calculated by the MLS, the latest list price is all that counts. Period.
With no further information, explanation or footnotes. Nothing to indicate that it started out at $1,127,000 and it took numerous price cuts on its way to $799,900 before finally selling for $740. And, along with the 92% figure, nothing to indicate that it sold for 66% of its original list price, (OLP).

But that’s not at all unusual. For every home that has one price cut or twenty price cuts (and there are thousands) the % of sale price/list price is, nevertheless, calculated solely on the latest list price. 

Why? I can’t imagine. Especially since doing so presents only a partial and more positive impression of the market than is often the case, an impression that buyers and sellers are in much closer agreement about prices than they really are, and that the market is more balanced and humming along more smoothly than it really is.

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then and now in the Tucson Foothills

Writing about home sales in the Tucson Foothills last February (what’s selling) I said;

in the last 30 days 56 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills
(6 foreclosures in that group)

42 sold from $0 to $599,999 (274 remain for sale) = 6.5 months inventory
10 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 (123 for sale) = 12 months inventory
4 sold for $1,000,000 or more (89 for sale) = 22.5 months inventory

The average/median/$/sf for the sold group is $483,914/$364,000/$164 sf

flash forward to today and,

in the last 30 days 53 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills
(and 6 foreclosures this year too) honest

42 sold from $0 to $599,999 (195 remain for sale) = 4.6 months inventory
7 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 (87 remain for sale) = 12 months inventory
4 sold for $1,000,000 or more (74 remain for sale) = 18.5 months inventory

The average/median/$/sf for the sold group is $476,781/$359,850/$164 sf

So déjà vu. Other than a few bucks here and a few bucks there the numbers are incredibly similar, if not identical, from then to now.

But what has changed in the last year, and it is significant, is the number of homes in contract & for sale last February vs. today.

Last Feb there were 484 single family homes for sale and 82 in contract -  
today there are 351 for sale and 139 in contract, see yesterday’s post > curious about what’s in contract 

That’s 27% fewer homes for sale along with a 69% increase in demand.
That’s not chickenfeed.

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curious about what’s in contract

Me too. Because looking at what’s in contract is the clearest sign of where the market is right now – and at what prices buyers and sellers are actively engaged in the market.

Overall, there are 139 single family homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills. And with 351 for sale, 139 in contract = 39% of the available inventory in contract. A very healthy number.
(Last month it was 105 in contract vs. 364 for sale for 28% of inventory in contract)

But also, as was true last month and has been for some time, most the action is still huddled at the lower end of the market. Though $600 to $999 has really perked up.

Here’s what it looks like by price range;

111 in contract at $0 to $599,999
    (with 190 for sale = 58% of available inventory in contract. that’s HUGE)

  19 at $600,000 to $999,999
     (with 87 for sale = 22% of inventory in contract)

    6 at $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
      (32 for sale = 19% of inventory in contract)

    3 at $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
      (21 for sale = 14% of inventory in contract)

    0 at $2,000,000 and up
      (21 for sale and nothing in contract = nothing)

Overall, and in 3 of the 5 price ranges, the ratio of homes in contract/homes for sale is stronger now than it was last month > what’s in contract < because demand has increased and supply has decreased and PS- we are at the lowest inventory in YEARS

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we’re bumping along at 2003 prices

In the 6 months from August 2003 to February 2004-
385 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills at an average/median of $444,612/$360,000 at $156/sf

flash forward 8 years

To the 6 months from August 2011 to now, February 2012-
260 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills at an average/median of $467,990/$361,000 at $155/sf

Want a more recent view – here’s what it looks like for the last 3 months

November 7, 2003 to February  7, 2004-
146 sold at average/median $479,965/$382,500 @ $163/sf

& now,

November 7, 2011 to today, February 7, 2012-
144 sold at average/median $494,792/$380,000 @ $158/sf

2003 prices!

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January home sales in the Tucson Foothills

Sales that close in January are hatched from deals that were made in Nov/Dec – and because people are having fun during the holidays, rather than buying homes, fewer deals are made. 
So January sales numbers are usually low. And this January is about par for the course – at least for the course as it’s been during these post boom years. ( for single family homes only –
# sold/month & the median sale price for that month))

January 2012
36 sold
median sale price - $354,925

January 2011
35 sold
median sale price - $375,500

January 2010
39 sold
median sale price - $400,000

January 2009
24 sold
median sale price - $410,500

January 2008
34 sold
median sale price - $510,000

January 2007
42 sold
median sale price -$520,000

January 2006
54 sold
median sale price - $594,500

January 2005
84 sold
median sale price - $457,750

January 2004
47 sold
median sale price - $380,000

January 2003
56 sold
median sale price - $315,409

Also - Judging market prices based on one months sales is not terribly accurate or dependable way to go about it – there just aren’t enough sales in any one month to be representative of the market.  But if you’re going to do it anyway, as I have here, median prices– rather than average prices (which are quickly skewed by one or two large sales) offer a more dependable view.

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2011 sales, at a glance

That’s for single family homes sold in the Catalina Foothills through the Tucson Association of
Realtors®  MLS

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what’s in contract

looking at which homes are in contract offers a good indication of what’s happening in the market right now – of what homes and at what prices buyers and sellers are actively engaged in the market. 

Overall, there are 105 single family homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills. And with 364 for sale, 105 in contract equals 28% of the available inventory in contract. And that’s pretty good.
But as you’ll see, and which has been the case for some time, most the action is huddled at the lower end, with diminishing activity at higher price points.

Broken down by list prices, there are;

84 in contract at $0 to $599,999 
(201 remain for sale) is 42% of available inventory in contract. WOW!

12 at $600,000 to $999,999
(90 for sale) is 13% of available inventory in contract

6 at $1,000,000 to $1,499,999
(36 for sale) is almost 17% of available inventory in contract

3 at $1,500,000 to $1,999,999
(18 for sale) is almost 17% of available inventory in contract

0 (none) at $2,000,000 & UP 
(21 for sale) is a long dark tunnel

**the number of homes in contract as reported above is only accurate at the time I pulled the data. Late Sunday afternoon. That’s because the number of homes in contract is constantly changing, so what you see when you click the listings above may well be different than what I’ve reported. That’s due to additional homes going to contract, while others that are in contract pass all the hurdles and sell (and therefore are no longer in contract) while still others fail to pass all the hurdles and fall out of contract and go back on the market as active listings.

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how’s the high-end market doing

Let’s look at the numbers and see.
At $1 mil and up there are 75 homes listed for sale
(average list price $2,166,359) (none are distress sales, yeah!)

There are 10 in contract - 
(average list price $1,388,400) (2 distress sales)

And 13 sold in the last 3 months
(average sold price $1,350,154) (3 were distress sales)

With the current inventory and rate of sales, there is a 17+ month supply of homes at $1 mil and up – about 3X what is considered a normal or balanced market.

And then there’s this - the average list price of homes for sale exceeds the average list price of those in contract by 56% – and the average list price of homes for sale exceeds the average sold price of those sold by 60%.  Why, because for the most part,  buyers are choosing homes from the  low end of the high-end inventory. And not from the mid to high-end of the high-end inventory. Make sense?

So looking at it with eyes-wide-open, it’s clear the high-end continues to be a very unbalanced market that is heavily weighted in favor of buyers. Or at least it should be. 
But there are still quite a few home sellers who apparently don’t care about that stuff, you know, the facts.  

On the other hand we’ve recently entered our high season for home sales here in the Tucson Foothills – a hopeful time which runs January to May or June – when, presumably, there are more buyers looking for, and buying, high-end homes. A time when, if the market is going to improve,(a very big if) this is when it’s most likely to do it. Of course, unless another shoe drops somewhere in the world.

PS – since January 1st just 2 homes listed at $1 mil or more have gone to contract.

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the first 16 days

January 16, 2012

in January 2010 there were
455 homes for sale listed at an average of $948,615

today there are
354 for sale listed at an average of $865,779
(so 22% fewer homes for sale now  than then – and listed at almost 9% less)

and in January 2010
13 homes sold between Jan 1 and Jan 16 at an average of $512,904

today,
15 homes sold since Jan 1 thru today at an average of $608,733
(almost 19% higher than in 2010)

So the news is good coming right out of the box.  List prices are down nicely  from 2 years ago (many sellers have, apparently, finally, gotten it) and sold prices are up. At least for the moment. caveat caveat - In the short term sold prices can and do jump up and down all over the place – skewed as they are by one or two big sales - so I’d suggest holding off on breaking out the cheer, the good stuff anyway, until we’ve seen 3 or more months worth of sales data. But hey, short term or not,  it’s better to be up than down and we could all use a little good news.

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in a quick turnaround, prices in Pinnacle Ridge are now on the rise

Yesterday I wrote about the measly sale prices of the three homes that sold recently in Pinnacle Ridge - they went for $162/sf, $157/sf and $136/sf – $572,500, $700,000, $605,000. And that’s it, that’s everything sold in there in the last 6 months.

Until today. Another home that was in contract is now reported just sold, but this one topped the charts at $765,000 ($216/sf) – a hefty 33% higher than the next highest $/sf sale price. How did they manage that. And, the big question, how did the appraiser manage to bring the appraisal in at sale price.

6358 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

And not that it matters, because these days lenders look back only 3 months for comparable sales, but for all of 2011, this $765k sale is the 2nd highest priced sale in Pinnacle Ridge
(it was nosed out of 1st place by a $785k sale @ $222/sf) but that was in April.
Ancient history to an appraiser.

(the $765k sale was off a $779k list price, which had been reduced from $850k when it started out in May, 2011)

One thing is for sure, this is a ray of light for the three homes that remain for sale.

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the gap between list and sold prices

Yesterday I mentioned that the average list price of homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills far exceeds the average sold price of the homes that sell – i.e., avg list is currently $850,350 while the average sold is $530,096 – 37% less.

But with distress sales it’s a very different story. The gap exists, but it’s reversed – in this case the average sold price exceeds the average list price.
See here, there are 36 homes listed as short sales and foreclosures –
with an average list price of $398,421.

And coincidentally, 36 short sale and foreclosure homes sold in the last 3 months –  for an average of $445,019 – almost 12% more

No wonder short sales and foreclosures are selling like hot cakes.

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the envelope, please

2011
627 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills for an average/median of
$477,760/$387,500 @ $160/sf.

vs.

2010,
586 sold for an average/median of $501,499/$408,750 @ $170/sf

vs.

2009
532 sold for an average/median of $535,242/$432,500 @ $183/sf

vs.

2008
530 sold for an average/median of $612,257/$515,000 @ $ $212/sf

vs.

2007
621 sold for an average/median of $676,151/$540,000 @ $236/sf

Sales in 2011 were up about 6% & prices down about 6%  vs. 2010.
And with 627 sold, sales are back to where they were in 2007 – but at prices that are back to where they were in 03 – 04.  Also, notice that the biggest price drops were from 07 to 08 and 08 to 09. Since then the decline has slowed dramatically.

Heading into 2012 there are (just) 342 single family homes for sale in the Foothills – not quite
7 months inventory based on 2011 sales - but they’re listed at an average/median of
$850,350/$549,000 @ $215/sf – which is way higher than recent sold prices -  ie, December $530,096/$390,000 @ $154/sf.

And much of that imbalance is due to the many high-end listings that linger on the market at list prices that haven’t been achieved in years, if ever, in the Tucson Foothills.
So I wonder, will this be a year of setting record high home prices in the Foothills, or will it be a year when ultra-high-priced homes continue to succumb to the forces of the market as we know it.

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Case-Shiller doesn’t cover the Tucson Foothills

In their latest report S&P/Case-Shiller says Home prices down for 6th straight month in the 20 markets they track.
From CNNMoney.com

 

Meanwhile, here in the Tucson foothills home prices are Up one month and Down the next.
But overall, the Down months are wiping out the gains from the Up months with the result that prices are Down - from 6 months ago, from last year, from 2 years ago, from …

And though it’s not over yet, it looks as if we’re going to end on a high note with December sale prices breaking records for this year. And though it’s due to an unusual number of high-end sales closing this month –including that big short sale in PC for $2.325 - that’s how it goes.
Up one month Down the next.

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heading into the stretch

In a few days it’ll all be history and we’ll tally the numbers for foothills home sales for 2011 vs prior years

But for now a heads up, sales, prices, etc, from Jan 1 thru today (Dec 26) for 2010 vs 2011.

2010
577 single family homes sold for $504,518/$413,236 – average/median @ $170/sf

vs.

2011
614 single family homes sold for $479,621/$389,000 – average/median @ $160/sf

So sales are up about 6% from last year while prices are down about 5% average/6% median & nearly 6% @ $/sf.

But this is the second consecutive year, since 2008, of increased home sales in the foothills - (that’s thru today 12/26)

2007 – 617 sold
2008 – 521 sold
2009 – 521 (yep, not a typo, weird but true, exactly the same as 08)
2010 – 577 
2011 – 614 (so we’re back to pre-Lehman, 2007 sales #’s – YEAH! but at prices that were    last seen in 2004)

And while sales of homes listed at a million $$+ took a big hit in 08, and a less-big-hit in 09, they’ve held steady since then. The not-so-new-news-here, though, is these homes are now selling, and only selling, at sharply reduced prices. At prices that, when offered a few years ago, were routinely scoffed at, when, ‘they’ll just wait’, they don’t need to sell’, was the popular refrain. 
million+ sales/year
2007 - 95 sold
2008 – 56 sold
2009 – 46 sold
2010 – 45 sold
2011 – 49 sold

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supply & demand in the Tucson Foothills, 12/14/2011

46 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills in the last 30 days and there are 346 for sale (the lowest inventory in years)

36 sold from $0 to $599,999 (199 for sale)

5 from $600,000 to $999,999 (74 for sale)

4 from $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 (36 for sale)

1 from $1.5 to $1,999,999 (18 for sale)

nothing from $2.0 & up (19 for sale), (though there is one house in contract for over $2.0 that will close escrow tomorrow - the first $2.0+ sale since July and only the 2nd sale all year at $2.0 or more)

average/median sold price for the group was $461,961/$367,500

As always months of inventory is all over the lot; overall for the Foothills it’s 7.5 months.
But see how it breaks out by price range;

from $0 to $599k there is a 5 1/2 month supply 
while at $600 to $999k it’s 15 months  (way up from last month)

and at $1.0 to $1.499 were looking at 9 months of inventory (way down from last month)
at $1.5 to $1.999 it’s 18 months
and at $2.0 & up there haven’t been any sales

Sales and prices during this 30 day period were different from the previous 30 days, not better, not worse, just different'. See for yourself > supply & demand in the Tucson Foothills

One thing’s for sure, this coming January thru June  – our in-season - will be an interesting one for upper-end home sales. The lower end is doing well and has been for some time, and though the middle is still struggling somewhat it is, I believe, not far from turning the corner on sales. And even at $1.0 to $1.3mil or so, sales have shown some real life lately. 

It’s at $1.5 that things really start to fall apart, and the higher you go the worse it gets.
And at the $1.5 to about $4,000,000 there are spec homes for sale, spec homes that have been on the market for a long time, yet no one has shown any interest in them.
That can’t go on forever. It wouldn’t surprise me if this season is the last hurrah.

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where are they selling at $1,000,000+

45 homes listed at $1,000,000+ have sold in the Tucson Foothills so far this year,

Alta Vista - 4
Canyon Ridge – 1
Canyons – 2
Catalina Foothills Estates 10 – 7
Catalina Foothills Estates (the old foothills) – 1
Cobblestone – 1
Cimarron – 1
Coronado Foothills Estates – 1
Finisterra – 1
La Puerta – 1
La Paloma – 1
Pima Canyon – 10
Sin Vacas – 1
Skyline Country Club – 4
Summit at Finger Rock – 2
Ventana Country Club – 5

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sales and prices this year

That’s for single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills, 

 

blue is average prices/red is median

 

YTD- 568 homes have sold for an average/median of $473,088/$386,250

vs. the same period last year

531 homes sold for an average/median of $508,248/$415,000

So while sales have inched up, prices have gone down.
And I don’t know if it means anything but this is the reverse of what occurred as the boom was petering out in 06 and into 07 – back then, sales were plummeting yet prices continued to rise.

05 sales/prices – 989 sold/avg sold $618,192
06 sales/prices – 728 sold/avg sold $703,360
1st half 07 sales/prices – 356 sold/avg sold $707,772 (621 sold for the year, and prices did begin to fall after the mortgage meltdown hit in August)

Where we go from here is anyone’s guess. And I’m sure we’d all love to hear what your crystal ball is telling you.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

supply & demand in the Tucson Foothills

45 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills in the last 30 days
(368 for sale) 

31 from $0 to $599,999 (212 for sale)

12 from $600,000 to $999,999 (80 for sale)

2 from $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 (41 for sale)

*nothing sold from $1.5 to $2.0 or from $2.0 & up (35 for sale)

average/median sold price for the group was $450,751/$384,000

Months of inventory continues to be a mixed bag; overall it’s about 8 months.
While from $0 to $599k there is barely a 7 month supply and at $600 to $999k it’s 6.5 months. That’s the good news.

At $1.0 to $1.5 were looking at 20 months of inventory. And with no sales at
$1.5 and up, it’s anybody’s guess how long it will take to unload all those luxurious homes.

One things for sure though, prices have fallen from where they were at this time last year – when 41 homes sold for an average/median of $506,283/$425,00 – that’s 11%  & 9.6% more than now.

And for you historians, today’s average/median sold prices are within a hairs breath of where they were at this time in 2003.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

paid $2,200,000 ten years ago and sold for $1,400,000 today

That’s at 7203 N Cloud Canyon Place, on the market since 2007 when it was listed for $3,250,000 and reduced and reduced until it reached $1.5 and sold today for the aforementioned $1,400,000 ($252/sf) - in the Canyons.

And while the sellers did pay $2.2 ($407/sf) for it in July 2001 it’s hard to believe that that was fair market value. The sellers who sold it them for $2.2 had purchased it exactly one year earlier, in July 2000, for $1,595,000 ($295/sf) – when it was brand new.

Can anyone make a case for it appreciating 38% from July 2000 to July 2001 –
if so I’d love to hear it. 

You’ve heard the old saying, you make (or lose) your money in real estate when you buy (not when you sell),

Today’s buyers, getting it for less than the  2000 price, they did well.

7203 N Cloud Canyon Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

Also worth noting, this is only the second sale in the Canyons since July 2008 - 
and it’s also the first “normal” non-distress sale since 2008 - Cheers to that!
the one and only other sale was a foreclosure earlier this year.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

the real estate market for the greater Tucson metro

While I generally don’t report on the overall Tucson market, Long Realty does and I thought you might be interested in a glimpse at how the rest of the market is doing.

The following is the summary from the latest Long Realty market report for sales activity in the overall Tucson metro. And also, unlike my reports which only include single family homes, the Long Realty reports also include townhomes and condos.

 As of October 2011 active inventory was 5,353, a 28% decrease from October 2010. There were 962 closings in October 2011, 28% above October 2010.

Months of Inventory was 5.6, down from 9.8 in October 2010. Median price of sold homes was $120,000 for the month of October 2011, down 14% from October 2010. The Tucson Market had 1,351 new properties under contract in October 2011, up 58% from October 2010.

Other than the slide in prices those are very encouraging numbers. Encouraging enough to indicate that the Tucson market may be on the rebound.

But just like here in the foothills, in order to have a real understanding of what is, and is not, selling, and the resulting months of inventory, the figures must be broken down and viewed by price range.

And as you’ll see in the following chart from Long, just like here in the foothills, the overall Tucson market is going great guns at the bottom price rungs – which, for the Tucson market, is up to about $250k -  but not so great beyond that.

I also like the following chart which  shows moi across the Tucson market by zip code – though it’s probably a bit mushy to read clearly.

It shows the foothills with 11.6 moi, one of the highest in the metro.
And the culprit is high priced homes. And while they’re not selling very well anywhere in the Tucson area, we have more of them in the foothills than our neighbors do.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home