The Catalina Foothills

aren’t you glad you waited on this one

4905 E Mission Hill Dr first hit the market in April 06 for $1,390,000.

And today, reduced yet again, it's at $795,000.  
And I don’t know, but I’d bet the owners are now on the short end of this stick. (no it’s NOT a short sale and NOT a foreclosure, that’s not what I meant) But they paid $640,000 in 05 and then did a very nice renovation. New kitchen with good stuff, renovated baths, travertine floors and other nice things. And now they’ll take $795,00, maybe even less. Do the math.

And it’s in Skyline CC and has wonderful mountain views,

So other than being priced in the stratosphere while there was still a chance to sell it for a good, but reasonable, price, what’s missing here. Well, the backyard. There’s really no backyard.

It has this cute little patio off the kitchen that would be just smashing in NYC or London, but here you want more space.

And there’s plenty of it and a perfectly good spot to make a beautiful backyard- wall it in, put in a pool, plant posies. But the sellers didn’t do it, and I think that’s what’s held this back, that is, once the price got down to earth. 

I’ve shown this house 3 or 4 times and buyers like it, heck, I like it, but everyone wrestles with the backyard thing.

The details>1 acre/3379sf/4 Beds/4 Bths/originally built 1969/4 car garage, including space for an RV/$795/$235/sf/in Skyline CC

if you like it and you can handle the back yard thing, it may be time to stop waiting and start moving on this one. 

See it here> 4905 E Mission Hill Dr

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to find your Foothills home

why Pima Canyon

The other day I mentioned that sales in Pima Canyon were beating the pants off sales in every other luxe community in the foothills - chalk up another one for PC. And a few readers wanted to know why, why was PC selling so much better than Ventana CC, La P, Skyline, Cat 10, Hacienda del Sol, etc, etc.

Here’s what I see, 
All the homes in Pima Canyon are newer. They’re all built since 2000 and most since 2004 and many in just the last 2 or 3 years. In all the other high-end communities there’s a mix of older and newer homes, but generally, with more older than newer. Also, in PC all the homes are single story, which is not the case in many of the other luxe communities. 

And more buyers of high-end homes prefer newer to older, and overwhelmingly, they prefer to live in single story homes. And if you have a nice single story home that tucks quietly into the desert, you don’t want to look at, and have your view blocked by, the monster two story down the street. Or worse yet, face the unknown prospect that at some point, a monster two story may be built next door.

Location, Location…With the growth and popularity of La Encantada, the center of the foothills has been firmly established at Skyline & Campbell, a hop, skip and a jump from PC. Throw in the development on the adjoining three corners and you have an unmatched, in the foothills anyway, selection of shops, boutiques, restaurants, bars and other places to satisfy your cravings and spend your money. And all the while, in a pleasant atmosphere for strolling, seeing and being seen. Go a couple of miles south to River & Campbell and St Phillips Plaza offers yet more ways to feast your eyes and whet your appetite. And if you’re a doc who needs to get to UMC, a lawyer working downtown, or you just want to go to UofA games, living near Skyline & Campbell makes it a breeze.

For those reasons, Pima Canyon fits the bill, while with the other luxe communities it’s hit and miss.

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to find your Foothills home

a nice normal sale, for a change

In Hacienda del Sol Estates, 4992 N Avenida De Castilla sold today for $835,000 ($245/sf) off an $870,000 list price – reduced from $895,000. And it took just under 5 months from listing to contract,
not too bad these days.

This was the 3rd sale in HDS in the last few months and the only normal sale of the three. The first one was a short sale and the other a house that had been gutted for a remodel and then the project was abandoned.

 

The short sale went for $185/sf, the gut job for $94/sf, so it was no 
slam-dunk appraising this one.

the three deadly sins

 The buyers were taking no chances of missing out on this deal.

The house at 4744 E Mission Hill Dr was listed on 9/26/06 for $848,000 and right away they rushed in and put a contract on it for $824,000 – but there was no house, it hadn’t been built yet.

It was a ‘to be built’ AF Sterling spec house. So with contract and down payment in hand, Sterling went ahead and built the house. And a year later when it was completed, it closed on 11/15/07 for the agreed to $824,000.

Here’s the good part. Two days later, on 11/17/07, the proud new owners promptly turned around and listed it for $1,250,000 – $1,250,000 - irrational exuberance, bad timing and greed, what am I leaving out.

OK, let’s be charitable. Maybe they didn’t realize it, or maybe they just couldn’t believe it could happen to them, but, boy oh boy, did they miss the boat.

By then we were 16 months into it. And there was no mistaking it and no way you could escape it. It was doom and gloom everywhere. Heck the mortgage meltdown, a watershed event, sounds quaint but remember that, had blown its gaskets just a few months before. And unless you were a Rockefeller, no mortgage – no way.

Anyway, you know how this one ends. It’s been on the market since then and expired today at $719,500 and where it goes from here I have no idea.

what’s the story with 1 and 2 story homes

I was talking to someone the other day about 2 story homes and I said, I’ve never had a buyer tell me they want to buy a 2 story home. I haven’t, never. Once in a while someone has said they’d consider a 2 story, if everything about it was just-so and the moon and stars were in the right orbit. But never, I want a 2 story.

And while it’s pretty clear from just casually observing the market that there’s a strong preference for 1 story homes, 2 story homes do sell. So I thought it worthwhile to see how sales of 1 story vs 2 story actually stack up.

As of today there are 445 1 & 2 homes for sale in the Foothills.
Of those, 106 are 2 story (24%) and 339 are 1 story(76%) 

106 2 story for sale & 43 sold in six months = 14.8 month supply

339 1 story for sale & 237 sold in six months = 8.6 month supply

Or, looked at another way,

2 story homes = 24% of homes for sale & 15.4% of homes sold, while
1 story homes = 76% of homes for sale & 84.6% of homes sold

Or,

sales of 2 story homes in the last 6 months (43) = 40% of the current inventory (106) of 2 story homes for sale, while

sales of 1 story homes in the last 6 months (237) = 69% of the current inventory (339) of 1 story homes for sale.

And for the last 6 months, 2 story homes sold for an average of $167/sf, while 1 story homes sold for an average of $190/sf.

the average time to sell 2 story homes was 214 days, while the average for 1 story homes was 149 days.

No matter how you look at it, 2 story homes don't sell as well.

Back in the early days of the foothills very few 2 story homes were built. Most of the early 2 stories were those built on ridges and craggy slopes, where the lot pretty much dictated building 2 stories, in order to build a big enough house. It was either impossible or impossibly expensive to level the lot sufficiently to build a big enough 1 story. Take for example the big old 2 story estates built in the 60’s & 70’s high up in Skyline CC, on some of the sloppiest, craggiest lots around. And while that’s still true, I think, and I’m a little out of my depth here, that modern building equipment and techniques have made it somewhat more feasible at least, though still very costly, to level and prep some of those sites for a one story home.

But these days we’re seeing 2 story homes built down in the flats, where it would be a snap to build a 1 story. Why? Pure and simple, to squeeze more house on less land. The hell with what buyers want. That seemed to work pretty good for a while. AF Sterling built some 2 stories in the Villages of La Paloma and, when the market was roaring along, they sold out. But they’ve had less success at Paloma Ridge where everything was 2 story. So much less they’ve reversed course and started offering 1 story homes.

People buy them, but they buy fewer of them, and pay less for them.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your 1, 2 or even 3 story Foothills home

got gas

During a recent home inspection where I was representing the buyers, the home inspector recommended that we have the gas lines pressure tested for leaks. He advised the test because the house was built in 1970 and had the original gas lines and, as he said, gas lines don’t last forever - eventually they leak. And the gas lines for this house were all under the slab, so a leak would very likely mean a complete re-piping job with the new lines running across the roof. Cha-ching!

So we called a reputable plumbing company that does gas line pressure testing and had them out early in the morning. It’s a pretty simple test. They shut off the gas valves to all the appliances and water heaters and whatnot, turn off the main gas line to the house and pump air into the line. And with the aid of a fancy looking pressure gauge they determine whether or not the lines are holding pressure.

These weren’t. According to the gauge they were losing 2 lbs. every 10 minutes. I saw it myself. So the plumber replaced a couple of valves on the water heaters that looked like they could be the leaky culprits, and re-tested. Same results, 2 lbs. every 10 minutes.
And now, because he found a leak, it was a safety hazard and he couldn’t reconnect the gas. He suggested we call Southwest Gas and report it and he advised us that they would put a lock on the meter.

So suddenly and out of nowhere, not only did the homeowner face a big and unexpected repair bill, but they were going to have to live without gas until the house was re-piped. Talk about starting the day off on the wrong foot.

But what are you going to do, they called Southwest Gas and reported the leak. And Bam, they were there in a flash. The SW gas tech spent more than an hour going over every inch of the house with his high-tech detecting equipment. And the verdict, no leak. Guaranteed and in writing from Southwest Gas. Happy days are here again,

The SW gas tech thought the plumber had followed all the correct procedures and tested properly. And he thought the false-positive might be due to having run the test early in the morning when the temperature is changing rapidly, which can alter the pressure. That, or the plumbers equipment was out of calibration.

In any case, if you encounter this situation, or for any reason suspect a leak, call Southwest Gas and report it immediately. They’ll come out and check and either verify there is a leak, or, if you’re lucky, give you a clean bill of health. But they don’t come out to do routine leak tests. For that you need a plumber.

chalk up another one for PC

In Pima Canyon, 2047 E Desert Garden Dr sold today for $1,400,000 ($364/sf), off a $1,599,000 list price. That’s after 560 days and a $1,749,000 starting price.

 

That makes 7 sold in PC in the last 6 months, beating the pants off every other luxe community in the foothills.

La Paloma – 2, Ventana CC – 1, Cobblestone – 1, Skyline CC – 0,

Cat 10 – 0, Hacienda del Sol Est – 0, Canyons – 0, Sin Vacas – 1.

No contest.
More sold in PC than in all those other communities combined.

Why Pima Canyon?
(the fine print, that’s for homes sold at $1,150,000 & UP)

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to find your Foothills home

a new listing in search of a market

It’s not their fault there are 14 homes for sale over a million $$ - and just one sold in the last six months - in Ventana CC.

But knowing that, and I assume they do, the owners of 7261 E Ventana Canyon Dr went ahead anyway and today listed their house for $1,399,000. Making it 15 for sale over a mil. And it appears there’s nothing brewing in there either, because there’s nothing under contract in VCC, at over a mil that is.

7261 E Ventana Canyon Dr

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another one that can’t last

A very nice little house in Cat 7 came on the market yesterday evening. And the minute I saw it I knew it couldn’t/wouldn’t last.

Built 1971/1+ acre/2527sf/burnt adobe/3 Beds/2 Bths/pool & spa/
big mountain views/$499,900 ($198/sf)
I don’t have anyone for it, or I’d have kept it for them, so here it is, have a look> 1631 E Entrada Once

If it interests you, don’t dilly-dally, because I’ll be very surprised if it’s not gone before the day is out. And for over list.

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to find your Foothills home

one step forward, two steps back

For a while there we seemed to be racking up contracts and sales at a pretty good clip. The low, mid and high end started chugging along noticeably better than they had been in a long while.

And then along came September. And I noticed, here and there,
a day would go by and nothing happened, no contracts. But I figured it was just ‘one of those days. And then ‘one of those days’ turned into ‘one of those weeks’ and now it looks as if it may be ‘one of those months’.    

Since September 1st we’ve had just 34 new contracts. And that’s low, double that would be more like it. And almost all 34 are huddled at the low to low-mid end of the market.

$0 - $500 = 15 contracts  (175 for sale)

$501 - $750 = 16  (105 for sale)

$751 - $999 = 2  (59 for sale)

$1.0 & UP = 1  (111 for sale)

So now the question is, is it just ‘one of those months’.

There are 3 additional contracts, but they’re on short sales, and the likeliehood of them actually closing is nil. So I didn’t count them.

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a new listing, but definitely not the new math

It’s in the Canyons, at 3657 E Canyon Wind Pl 

See if this computes-
it last sold for $2,700,000 in 2004 and listed today for $3,800,000.
Oh well. That’s #35 for sale at $2.0 and up and still just 4 sold in the last 6 months.

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to find your Foothills home

no WOW house to kick around anymore

After 2 years and over 3 million in price cuts the WOW house sold today for a measly $1,403,000. Yes, a measly $1.403. The buyers stole it. Look, the pictures are pretty amazing, but in real life it was even more dramatic and incredible.

Briefly; it sold in December 2005 for $2,100,000.
At that point it was an unfinished shell. No floors, walls, lighting, cabinets, fixtures, counters, cabinets, doors, appliances – an empty shell – it had just a roof, exterior walls, a slab floor and a pool & spa.

The buyers finished it, all 7000 sf of it. And even if their cousin Louie did all the work at cost, they had to have spent $350,000, bare bones minimum. Then they listed it in September 2007 for $5,500,000, no-go, then $4,900,000>$3,900,000>$2,900,000>$2,400,000>$1,900,000 (as as short sale) and sold today for $1,403,000 ($199/sf)

 

$1,403,000, that’s hard to believe. No doubt the design was too radical for 99% of buyers & cousin Louie’s interior finishing didn’t quite measure up in the $4.0 arena. But still, $1.4.

I was fascinated by this house and mentioned it a few times in the past - here and here and elsewhere that I can’t seem to find right now - so take my comments with a big grain of salt.

$1.4, booo-hoo-hoo!

hefty high-end price cuts

Listed for 9+ months at $1,997,500, with not a single price cut, 
6460 N Thimble Pass just cut its price 20%, to $1,599,000 ($273/sf). That’s in Ventana CC, where high-end sales have been sluggish - at $1.0 & Up there are 14 for sale and just 1 sold in the last 3 months, very sluggish.

And 1813 E Sahuaro Blossom Pl, an old familiar face in Pima Canyon, returned to the market today having dropped $500,000. It first appeared in March 2006 as a new spec home for $3,200,000, where it held for a year. Then, after a bunch of piddly price cuts, it eventually got down to $2,895,000. And now $500,000 lopped off in one swoop, to $2,395,000. What could it be, why have both these home owners had this sudden change of strategy.

And while it’s true that Pima Canyon has been selling better than other luxe Foothills communities, considering how poorly the others have done, that’s not saying all that much. Currently there are 16 for sale in PC & 3 sold in the last 3 months for a very well stocked 16 month supply.

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to find your Foothills home

but not in the Foothills, right

From WSJ.com

Falling real estate prices are becoming as much a feature of high-end neighborhoods as ocean views, infinity pools and four-car garages.

While the latest data suggests prices for mainstream homes may be stabilizing after several years of pain, the news for luxury homes isn't looking as good.

That's bad news for sellers, naturally, but anyone in the market for a home listed for $2 million or more will find deeply discounted asking prices—and may be able to command even lower prices.

Seeking Real Estate Bargains? Try Looking at the High End

Well, the good news in the Foothills is we have just 34 homes for sale at $2.0 & UP. The other news is that just 3 have sold in the last 3 months. And now the bad news. Doing the math, that leaves us with a 34 month supply of homes at $2.0 & UP.

So like the man says, Seeking Real Estate Bargains? Try looking at the high end.

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to find your Foothills home

truth in advertising

Steps and stairs are not too popular with Tucson Foothills home buyers. And even though there are a fair number of homes for sale with steps and stairs - you seldom see steps and stairs featured in listings or advertising.

until now,

step right this way

and watch your step

Yes, believe it or not, these pictures are from one listing of one house for sale in Hacienda Del Sol Estates. A house with lots of steps and stairs - that you don't have to schlepp over to see to find out that it has lots of steps and stairs, if you don’t want steps and stairs.

It’s at 5106 N Avenida De Castilla, for $749,000. And, for bucking the conventional wisdom and saving us a few steps, the listing agents, Heidi Baldwin and Matt James, get the truth in advertising award.
No contest.

something special in Cat 10

3550 E Entrada Del Sol, a favorite of mine, returned to the market today after 2 months on the sidelines, but at the same old $1,395,000 ($330/sf) price.

A La Quinta, originally built in 1985, in 06-07 it had a gorgeous top to bottom renovation and also was enlarged to the tune of about 1200’ sf.

It’s now 4422 sf/burnt adobe construction/4 Beds/3.5 Bths/study/1.3 acres/3 car Gr/pool & spa/District 16/with style & charm on it’s own private hill-top in Cat 10.

I’ll be very surprised if it doesn’t sell this time round, assuming the owner is not too stuck on his price. 

see it here> 3550 E Entrada Del Sol

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a slam-bam lender owned sale

6464 N Ventana Canyon Dr - listed in June for $1,040,000, went to contract in August and sold today for $940,000 ($163/sf) cheap cheap, cheap. And I think the buyer is an investor and not a proud new happy homeowner. And if I’m right, we’ll see it back on the market, and soon I bet.

And for a little history on the decade long road to this sale see>
many tried, none succeeded  & great expectations

what are the odds

7301 N Cathedral Rock Rd in Cobblestone sold for $1,100,000 ($286/sf) in May 08 and returned to the market today asking $1,495,000 ($389/sf).

One thing’s for sure, they get an F in the new math.

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to find your Foothills home

blinded by the light

The AZ Daily Star has an article titled “Real Estate listings go to cell phones” But it sounds to me that this new technology is not really about listings going to cell phones, that’s already widely available and somewhat useful, but about trying to stir-up an impulse buying state of mind in potential buyers. However ridiculous that may sound.

… a new [mobile] platform that lets users search listings, pre-qualify for loans, call up title reports and even submit offers — all by cell phone. Deals could be made — or at least tentatively agreed to — in minutes. If it takes off, it could change the shape and pace of real estate as buyers, fueled by instant information, blast out offers.

Yeah right, blast out offers, like bidding for beanie babies on ebay.

Try reading the fine print of a real estate contract, title report, or, better yet, a mortgage contract, on your cell phone, and then see how you feel about blasting out an offer. 

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to find your Foothills home

a quiet day

The MLS shows no action today, nothing, no new listings, no homes under contract, nothing sold, not even an expired listing.

Like it or not, a day of rest.

more converts to the new math

With many sellers and their agents putting their best face on for the new season, we’re seeing an encouraging number of them giving the new math a try.  I’ve mentioned it here and here and here

And now 6414 N Desert Wind Cir, that’s in Ventana Country Club Estates, returned to the market today asking 14% less than when it left last month- $1,150,000 to $989,000.

And 2087 E Desert Garden Dr in Pima Canyon, just dropped 13% -
$2,999,000 to $2,599,000.

Who’s next.

See them here> Desert Wind & Desert Garden

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the market speaks and, this time, speaks kindly

6380 N Placita De Tia Ro, a 2000 built SW contemporary in the ever popular Alta Vista area, sold today for an even $1,000,000.

The sellers paid $1,050,000 for it in July 06 and then, ignoring the crashing market, listed it for $1,350,000 in March 08. And after umpteen little price cuts and a year + of no-go showings, they finally got it down to $1,060,000 and voila’. They lucked out and got more than I figured they would and more than the numbers say they should.

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to find your Foothills home

months supply of homes

Yesterday I broke down home sales by price range for the period of July 1 thru Sept 15. And a reader asked if I would follow up and show the months supply of homes for each price range. But of course.

Based on sales from 7/1 – 9/15 and current inventory – 454 for sale.

Let’s start with the months supply for all foothills homes
$0 - $13,500,000 = 142 sold/454 for sale = an 8 month supply.

An 8 month supply is a big improvement, about 6 months ago the supply was more like 18 months.

but break it down by price range and it’s a different story,

$0- $499 = 86 sold/170 for sale = 5 month supply

$500 - $999 = 41 sold/174 for sale = 10+ month supply

$1.0 & Up = 14 sold/105 for sale = just under a 19 month supply

So no need to worry about running out of homes for sale, at least from $400,000 and up, which is about 85% of the market.

And if we go tighter it’s a different story yet,

$200-$300 =  24 sold/30 for sale = a tad over a 3 month supply

$400-$500 = 31 sold/90 for sale = 7.5 months supply

$600-$700 = 15 sold/40 for sale = 6.6 month supply

$800-$900 = 5 sold/28 for sale = 14 month supply

$1.250-$1.5 = 6 sold/28 for sale = 11.6 month supply

$2.0-$2.5 = 1 sold & 11 for sale = 27.5 months supply

So as things have been going, generally, as the price goes up, the months supply of homes does too.

just the facts

Sales data for July 1 - September 15 for Foothills single family homes
for this year + same period in 08 & 07
- the # of homes sold by price range +
average/median & $/sf sold prices 

	2009	2008	2007
$0- $499	86	53	57
$500-$999	41	38	56
$1.0- up	14	11	13
Total Sold	141	102	126
Avg Sold $$	$573,658	$606,690	$610,487
Med Sold $$	$450,000	$490,000	$521,743
Avg $$/sf	$188	$213	$243

-sales are up 11.9% from same period in 07

-Average sold price is down 6% from same period in 07

-Median sold price is down 13.75% from same period in 07

-$/sf sold price is down 22.6% from same period in 07

3260 E Sun Cloud Pl, it’s a hot potato

In February this year it sold for $1,000,000 after just 21 days.

Then in May the new owners listed it for $1,100,000 and sold it for $800,000 after 78 days.

And in August, the 3rd and latest owners listed it for $1,100,000, and today after just 25 days, it’s gone to contract again.

See it here> 3260 Sun Cloud Pl in Cobblestone

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road kill

In 2002 I listed the lot down there, X, on Kolb Rd for $120,000. Back then it was just a vacant lot, no house. And the address isn’t Kolb Rd, it’s Foothills View Ct. Much nicer sounding than Kolb Rd, it conjures up quiet, charming and tucked away.

But the showings were few and far between. And when there was a showing, the buyers and their agents sneered at me when they saw it was next to Kolb Rd. Because the image of what a Foothills View Ct should be and the reality of Kolb Rd didn’t mesh. And back then there were no Google maps to check it out before you traipsed over there. So there were a lot of disappointed lookers and a lot of time wasted.

This went on from 02 well into 2003. But then in very late 03 things started to perk up a little bit and I was getting more showings and not getting sneered at quite as much.

And by 04, it was like night and day. No one seemed to care that it was next to Kolb Rd. And buyers and their agents were positively friendly and interested and talkative and nice. And before I knew it, I had two offers in one day, and one of them was for slightly over list price. And the guy that didn’t get it, kept calling me, hoping the deal was going to fall through. It didn’t, and lucky for him.

I was reminded of all this because a house was built on that lot, a spec house, and it went on the market in June 06 for $900,000.Then it was $849,000, then $759,000, and so on and so forth. And it never sold.

And today, 3+ years later, it turned up as a foreclosure listed for $557,000. There’s always a right price, and who knows, maybe this is the one that’ll make the road go away.

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to find your Foothills home

he who hesitates

Last week I mentioned a new listing at 6585 E Placita Elevada and said it can’t last - can’t last

It didn’t. Someone else saw value there and didn’t pussyfoot around and risk losing it. They’re in contract with it today.  

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to find your Foothills home

those old familiar faces

Summer’s over, Labor Day’s gone and they’re starting to return for the new season. And some, with a firm grasp of the new math.

The other day I mentioned that 2112 E Sentry Ridge Ct had returned to the market a million $$ lighter than when it left a couple of months ago - a million here, a million there

And now 7021 N Mission Hill Ln in Skyline CC, which is back today, 
is following suit. It left in mid-June at $2,495,000 and it’s back -
same house, same views, same everything – for $1,495,000.
(it’s range priced from $1.495 to $1.895, but I’ve yet to meet the buyer who’d offer over the bottom of the range, though quite a few who’d go in under)

Built 1989/masonry construction/7308 sf/1+ acre/5 Beds/7 Bths + 2 half Bths/6 fireplaces/3 car garage/up near the tippy-top of Skyline/$204.57/sf

See it here> 7021 N Mission Hill Ln, in Skyline CC

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to find your Foothills home

the new math

There’s a charming little house in Finisterra at 5570 E Paseo Del Fuente that sold in January 08, after just 30 days on the market,
for $751,000 – or $2000 over list.

It’s back today for $599,000 

Built 1984/Burnt Adobe/2 Beds/+ Den/2 Bths/2 car garage/community pool & spa/a charmer, at a charming price 

See more here> 5570 E Paseo Del Fuente 

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Ownership has it’s privileges

Imagine being at the MIRAVAL RESORT, having a hot stone massage, taking yoga and challenge classes, dabbling in cooking classes and eating fabulous food and NEVER HAVING TO LEAVE because you live there …

Well Imagine no more. Because Miraval, the famous resort and wellness spa north of Tucson, is getting into the luxe-housing business

The first three homes, listed today by Janell Jellison of Long Realty, range from 2633 to 2949 sf and from $2,225,000 to $3,400,000.

Interesting timing to introduce ultra-luxe housing, though, then again, isn’t Steve Case of AOL/Time Warner fame behind this venture.

The Villas at Miraval, the web site

and the listings > the first three

a million here, a million there

After a two month hiatus 2112 E Sentry Ridge Ct in Pima Canyon came back on the market yesterday at $3,500,000, or a nice even $500/sf.

That’s after dropping close to a million last September, a half million this January, and another million when it came back on yesterday.

And it’s not a spec home or a short sale or foreclosure.
It’s a dramatic looking contemporary/2008 built/7000 sf/
5 Beds/6.5 Bths/4 car garage/1.92 acres/with owners who are not content to dilly-dally around and have put their money where their mouth is,

 

See it here> 2112 E Sentry Ridge Ct in Pima Canyon

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the last of the spec homes

In the past year about 17 spec homes sold in the foothills and many of them sold for what must have been a painful and disappointing price to their builders/investors;
$1,449,000/$850,000 - $1,649,000/$895,000 - $1,259,000/$900,000
$2,450,000/$900,000 - $1,650,000/$920,000 - $1,375,000/$998,000 
$1,495,000/$1,000,000 - $1,775,000/$1,050,000 
$2,000,000/$1,100,000 - $2,895,000/$2,100,000.

And then a few did better; $945,000/$825,000 - $1,034,900/$865,000 - $1,650,000/$1,550,000 - $3,450,000/$3,250,000 

I count 20 specs still for sale, some with big price cuts, others not so much. And the most expensive of the group holding the line. See them here, along with where they were priced and where they are now.

– any bets on the next three to sell and for how much$$

3179 E Corte De Andalucia - was $1,495,000 is $975,000

6825 N Calle Mechero – was $2,350,000 is $995,000

7598 N Mystic Canyon Dr – was $1,400,000 is $1,125,000

5910 N Mina Vista – was $1,795,000 is $1,160,000

2436 E PLACITA DE LA VICTORIA – was $1,800,000 is $1,385,000

4845 E Winged Foot Dr – was $2,286,600 is $1,590,000

4900 E Winged Foot Dr – was $2,400,000 is $1,650,000

3199 E Corte De Andalucia – was/is $1,795,000

5855 E Placita De La Zuerencia – was $1,800,000 is $1,795,000

6155 N Whaleback Pl – was/is $1,850,000

2192 E Desert Garden Dr – was $2,499,000 is $2,250,000

1593 E Sahuaro Blossom Pl – was $2,800,000 is $2,290,000

3208 E Via Palomita – was $3,200,000 is $2,495,000

7755 N Ancient Indian Dr – was $2,795,000 is $2,495,000

2123 E Sentry Ridge Ct – was $2,750,000 is $2,495,000

7828 N Ancient Indian Dr – was/is $3,295,000

6700 N Saint Andrews Dr – was/is $3,450,000

7417 N Secret Canyon Dr – was/is $4,500,000

7454 N Secret Canyon Dr – was/is $5,000,000

7582 N Secret Canyon Dr – was/is $13,500,000

Once they’re gone, either because they got lucky and sold or were shelved, I don’t think we’ll see a big new flock of spec homes anytime soon. If for no other reason than lack decent building lots – I think, I hope, builders have learned that building on junk lots doesn’t cut it -squeaky tight financing for spec building and that quite a few spec builders lost their shirts this last time round.

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sleaze ball alert

I’ve gotten a couple of calls on my cell phone from some creep who claims to be from Progressive financial services. Says he’s calling to check the last four digits of my ss# to verify my identity so he can pass along whatever bs he’s pretending to peddle.

Don’t be caught off guard.

Next stop is the AZ attorney general’s office to report this sleaze.

at the right price …

At the height of it’s long history of bizarre pricing, 6840 N Vista Del Pueblo, aka the racquet ball house, was as high as $2,950,000 and bounced around well above 2 million for about 18 months. 

But it sold today for $905,850, off a much saner $999,500 list price. And at 6399sf they paid just $141/sf. Cheap for Finisterra. But, to my eye, it needs a ton of work and what to do with the racquet ball court.

maybe La P ‘is’ the place to be

Having looked at the homes for sale, under contract and sold in Ventana and Skyline CC, and found a lop-sided mix of slow sales and high inventory, as the only other golf community in the foothills, it’s La Paloma’s turn in the spotlight.

there are 25 homes for sale in La Paloma from $344,500 to $2,495,000 the average list price of those 25 is $705,072

there are 6 under contract, from $255,900 to $699,000
which averages out to a $494,654 list price

19 have sold in the last 6 months, from $265,000 to $3,250,000
which, considering there are 25 for sale, equals just under an
8 month supply of homes for sale.

and the average sold price of the 19 that sold is $712,637,
a skosh higher than the average list price of the 25 for sale

So unlike Ventana and Skyline, sales in La P are strong, inventory is at a nearly normal level and the average price of homes that have sold is in-line with the average price of those for sale.
No lop-sidedness in La P.

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sometimes you see the damndest things

This cute little house near Sabino Canyon sold in May 05 for $439,000.

Then in September 2008 it was listed for $2,700,000. Really, $2.7. The same 2400 sf house/4 bedrooms/2 baths/near Sabino Canyon/for $1125/sf. Hey, if you don’t ask, you don’t get, right.

Then in February 09, perhaps sensing a rising market and not wanting to miss out, they tweaked the price to $2,788,000. They did, really.

And surprisingly, that didn’t cut it either, so today they tweaked it again and dropped it from $2,788,000 to $675,000, in one fell swoop.

Don’t ask me.

If you must, here’s the listing> 8221 E Cholla and to add to the mysterious allure, there are no pictures and no description. *the listing IS EXPIRED*

UPDATE: ONE DAY AT $675,000 AND THE LISTING EXPIRED. PERHAPS, WHO KNOWS, BECAUSE THEY WERE OVERWHELMED WITH OFFERS.  STAY  TUNED.

don’t like Ventana, then how would you like to be a house for sale in Skyline CC

in Skyline there are 20 homes for sale from $420,000 to $3,450,000,
the average list price of the 20 is $1,346,025

there are 3 under contract, one at $579,000, one at $649,000 and one at $1,200,000  
for an average list price of $809,633

3 have sold in the last 6 months, for $400, $475 & $560
which, considering there are 20 for sale, works out to about a 40 month supply of homes for sale
and the average sold price of the 3 that did sell is $478,333, about 65% less than the average list price of the 20 for sale

I’m not sure I’d like to be a house for sale here either

and oddly enough, despite a recent pick up in overall foothills sales, the 3 that sold, sold in April and June. And nothing since. And of the 3 under contract, one is a short sale and one is a foreclosure

Next, maybe La Paloma’s the place to be.

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to find your Foothills home

how would you like to be a house for sale in Ventana CC

there are 22 homes for sale in Ventana CC from $299,000 to $8,250,000
the average list price of those 22 is $1,623,559

there are 2 under contract, one at $499,000, the other $1,040,000 
which averages out to a $769,500 list price

7 have sold in the last 6 months, from $549,000 to $1,300,000
which, considering there are 22 for sale, equals about a 19 month supply of homes for sale
and the average sold price of the 7 that did sell is $803,107, less than half the average list price of the 22 for sale

I wouldn’t

on the bright side, the two highest sales, $950 & $1.3, were also the most recent sales – late July and mid August.

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to find your Foothills home

so many times you see such crappy pictures in listings

that it’s nice to see an agent go all out and then hit a home run too.

Here’s a house that was listed for $324,900, the lowest of price ranges for the foothills, but given a million $$ presentation by the listing agent, Vito Teti of Re/Max.

Here’s what Vito wrote;

What A Beauty! Peaceful Backyard Oasis,Lit Pool,New Pump,Covered Brick Patio,Misters,Mountain Views,Porch Entry,Great Floorplan,Formal Dining/Living/Family/Storage,Huge Bedrooms,Master w/Dual Sinks,Make-Up Vanity,Wood Accent Walls,Doors,Frames,Blinds,Built-In Oak Desks,Tons Of Cabinets,Dual Cooling,Progammable A/C,Skylights,Gas Fireplace,Ceiling Fans,New Paint,Home Warranty & All Appliances Stay Too! Directly Across 2 Parks & Close To Everything!

And the pictures,

Now if that’s anything like what you’re looking for, how could you not go see it. This sold in 8 days for just over list price.

way-to-go Vito

can’t last

New Listing - Built in 92/3314 sf/4 bedrooms/3.5 baths/district 16/
1 story/3 car garage/in Cimarron Foothills Estates and set way back from the street with wide-open mountain views and a big walled-in backyard with a pool & spa.

$592,500/$179/sf/can’t last, I betchya

 

see it here> 6585 E Placita Elevada

And no, it’s not my listing,

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listed for $1.1, sold for $1.1

so it shows up in the MLS as selling for 100% sp/lp
(that’s sale price/list price)

Never mind that at one point it was listed for $2.0, then $1.495, then $1.249. It first went on the market in April 07 and this June got down to $1.1.

Anyway, it sold today, for $1.1. 7579 E Felicity Pl  Hur-rah!

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are more homes selling now than were selling then

Here’s a quarterly view, starting with the 4th quarter of 08, when everything went to hell.

10/1/08 – 12/31/08  108 homes sold
- 61 @ $0 - $500
- 41 @ $501 - $999
- 6 @ $1.0 & up

1/1/09 – 3/31/09   110 homes sold
- 68 @ $0 - $500
- 31 @ $501 - $999
- 11 @ $1.0 & up

4/1/09 – 6/30/09   125 homes sold
- 84 @ $0 - $500
- 33 @ $501 - $999
- 8 @ $1.0 & up

7/1/09 – 9/3/09  125 homes sold
-79 @ $0 - $500
-33 @ $501 - $999
-13 @ $1.0 & up

Sales started inching up in the 2nd quarter. And by the 3rd, which still has a month to go, the same number of homes have sold in 2 months as in the previous three. And more than in any quarter going back to last October.

And for the same 2 month period in 08, we had;

7/1/08 – 9/3/08  90 homes sold
- 46 @ $0 - $500
- 33 @ $501 - $999
- 11 @ $1.0 & up
**isn’t it amazing how steady mid-range sales ($501-$999) held through thick and thin.

So more homes are selling now than were selling then.
And now we’re entering our fall season, a time when sales typically pick up, and doing so without the panic of a financial collapse. So beating last years numbers should continue to be a no-brainer. Let’s see.

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under contract now

As summer fades into the sunset, we have 84 homes under contract in the foothills, a goodly amount. And if just 2/3 of them actually close, we’ll be OK.

11 are listed as ACTIVE CAPA, meaning most of these are short sales that have made it through only the first, and the lowest, of many hurdles on the way to closing. So expect lots of fallout from this group. Average/Median/$$/sf list prices are; $401,109/$419,000/$162/sf.

49 are ACTIVE CONTINGENT, that is, still in the inspection period and could go either way. Though you'd think, if a seller was lucky enough to snag a buyer, they'd do double back flips to keep them on board. They’re priced at; $557,257/$465,000/$186/sf.

24 are PENDING – and theoretically, have made it over all the hurdles and are headed for COE. Average/median/$$/sf for this group is; $637,928/$491,950/$184/sf.

7 of the 84 are at $1.0 & Up.

see them all here> under contract now
**link will expire on 10/3/09**

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the summer of 09

Now that it's behind us, let's have a look at how we did and, just for fun, see how it compares to the summers of 08, 07 and 06

For foothills single family  home sales
June 1 through August 31;

2009
-170 homes sold

- 16 sold at $1.0+

-$564,886/$450,000/$190/sf, that’s average/median/$/sf

2008

-146 sold

-17 sold at $1.0+

-$619,282/4527,500/$212/sf

2007

-188 sold

-29 sold at $1.0+

-$644,068/$540,000/$242/sf

2006

-188 sold (yes the exact same as 07, not a typo)

-25 sold at $1.0+

-$640,104/$549,600/$232/sf

So except for the $1.0+ market, which is still in a deep funk, the number of homes sold is comparable to the banner years. But average sold prices are down about 12%, median about -22% and $$/sf -21%. ______________________________________________________

And looking back to the 1st quarter of this year -

-110 sold

-11 sold at $1.0+

-$529,126/$442,500/$184/sf

Overall summer sales are up 54% -- $1.0+ sales are up 45%. 
average sold prices have eeked out a 7% gain, median are up a teensy 1.69% and +3.26% for $$/sf.

Though in some cases they may be small, the numbers are going up, not down.

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striking out in the foothills

If you’re making offers and getting nowhere, join the club- you’re not alone. Here are some recent deals I’ve tried to put together for buyers I’m representing, that, despite our best efforts, we can’t seem to get off the ground. (in some cases, but not all, prices have been changed a teensy-weensy bit, to keep it anonymous)

- listed $1,295,000(on the market about 18 months) 
  offered $1,085,000 – countered @ $1,275,000, 
  Next

- listed $579,900 (REO, new on market)
  offered $579,900 cash w/2 week close
  offer rejected - only considering offers at $650k & up

- listed $1,400,000 (on the market about 18 months)
  offered $1,000,000 cash, countered @ $1,200,000,
  no further signs of life

- listed $879,000 (on the market 2 years)
  offered $755,000 – countered @ $830,000,
  case closed

- listed $655,000 (on the market 1 year+)
  offered $595,000 – countered $605,000, 
  tantalizingly close, but no cigar

- listed $549,800 (REO, new on market)
  offered $560,000, rejected, in favor of $577,000 winning bid

- and though less recent, my fav
   listed $995,000 (about 3 months on the market)
   offered $850,000 - offer promptly Rejected. harumph!
   No counter, instead, we were informed that we were too far
   apart for the seller to be bothered with a counter.  
   PS- the listing expired after 235 days & has never returned

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The typical buyer speaks a different language and engages the process in a totally different way than the typical seller

This is from Ron Phipps of Phipps Realty Rhode Island
And I think he’s nailed a lot of what is going on behind the scenes in his post - The Grand Canyon between Sellers and Buyers

There’s so much good stuff here that I’ve copied practically the whole post.

The average buyer has become a critical shopper. He, she, or they spend much time looking at sold comparables, … BEFORE they actually start to look at specific properties. It maybe simply a characteristic of the latest generation of homebuyers… Yet as a group they are extremely analytical. Many of the buyers I am working with now spread sheet their search. It is empirical. It is not emotional.

The sellers are as a group, well intentioned but somewhat misinformed. The sellers are in most cases genuinely committed to selling. They firmly believe that their house or their neighborhood is better than the recent comparables and competing properties. In many instances they never view any of the competing properties.

The National Association of Realtors just released a new statistic that 94% of buyers between 25 and 40 use the web as their first and primary source in the home finding/acquiring process. This is amazing. ‘Pretty pictures’ in magazines or newspapers are not as effective as online photos, floor plans, videos, etc. The typical buyer speaks a different language and engages the process in a totally different way than the typical seller. The generation difference is amplifying the void between sellers and buyers. For buyers, this is a ‘strategy’ to find a great value. Sellers are trying to sell their ‘home.’ Most buyers are simply more objective.

In Rhode Island, there is a herd mentality among sellers. One bases price on the other competing listings that are NOT selling. The price needs to be based on closed sales. This is a very difficult market. Prices continue to adjust downward. If you do not need to sell and want premium value, take your house off the market, and try again in a few years.

But read it as Ron wrote it - The Grand Canyon between Sellers and Buyers

Thanks Ron Phipps

oops!

August home sales, oh well, it was fun while it lasted

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driven into the arms of the lender

6052 N Paseo Zaldivar in Alta Vista popped into the MLS today as a REO, that’s a bank owned property, listed for $675,000/$150/sf.

And coincidentally, Paseo Zaldivar last sold in 2001 for $675,000.
So, go for it, it might be a deal.

Here’s how it got to where it is today.

They had a chance to sell it last June when it was first listed - as a nice normal, home owner selling their home sale. But they blew it, by listing it for $1,499,000.
Nothing of any consequence had been done to it since it last sold – no new kitchen, no new baths, none of that – to justify that ridiculous price. So of course it didn’t sell.

Then it became a short sale, randomly listed between $849,000 and $749,000, and it actually went to contract a couple of times but - you know those short sales - they hardly ever get off the ground. And this one was no exception. So after countless man hours, endless handwringing and realms of paperwork, it’s back to where it was in 2001. And is now Greenpoint Mtg Funding's problem.

3 down 3 to go on La P Dr

4130 E La Paloma Dr sold today for $944,000 from a $1.0 list price. The sellers paid $995,000 for it in July 2004, so $944 seems about right.

That makes three sales on La Paloma Dr this year. 
One for $655,000, this one for $944,000 and one at $1,400,000.

And there are three homes still for sale up on La P.

One for $849,900, one for $985,000 and one for $1,500,000.

For such a short little street, there’s been a lot for sale and prices are all over the place.

Gmail is down

Google’s email service, Gmail, is down. IS UP AGAIN

Nothing coming in, nothing going out.

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