The Catalina Foothills

Monday, Monday

Let’s see, what’s worth mentioning in Tucson Foothills real estate

6271 N Whaleback Pl, in Ventana CC, first listed in March 2007 for $1,449,000, went to contract today at $999,000. You scoff, but still, that’s nearly $286/sf.

7240 N Camino Sin Vacas, in, yep, Sin Vacas, sold today. It was first listed in January 2009 for $995,000 and sold today for $550,000. Of course, during that time, it was reduced umpteen times to it’s most recent list price of $648,500.

When it was listed at $995, kicking and screaming, and at the insistence of one or two buyers, I showed Cmo Sin Vacas. Never to return. $550 may be a tad low for this house, but, given that they hung on at $995 & $895 for so long, it’s hardly surprising.

And another Sin Vacas house, 2691 E Calle Sin Pecado, has a new owner today, the 3rd in 4 years and the only one who may not lose their shirt on this house.

Sin Pecado sold in 05 for $650 and was promptly renovated- new kitchen, baths, floors, etc, - and put back on the market for $950. Eventually, 440 days later, it sold for $720. Oh well. 

And exactly one year later, and tired of it already, the new owners put it on the market for the sacrifice price of $719. A whole $1000 less than they paid. And after 302 days, it sold today for $600. $50k less than in 05, and with a nice renovation thrown in, gratis.

And for fans of Alta Vista, it looks like they’re getting serious over at 6050 N Paseo Valdear. Today they cut the price $100,000 – from $895 to $795. And that’s down from the $1,050,000 they started at a little more than a year ago. Aren’t you glad you waited,

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weekend contracts

About 3 weeks ago when 4620  N Camino Gacela was a fresh new listing, I said -
4620 N Camino Gacela in Heatherwood Hills, $985,000 – 2006 built/4030 sf/4 Beds/4 Baths/.92 acres/ etc/ and see for yourself, but looks to me that it may be on the high side for Heatherwood Hills.

Well apparently not, because 25 days later and Camino Gacela is under contract. Congrats to all.

And 4790  N Via De La Granja in Cat 10, relisted and smartly re-priced from it’s former $1,299,000 to it’s current (range price) $950,000 to $1,150,000 ($168/sf @$950) also went to contract. I represent the buyers.

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more thoughts on walking away from your home

"The government was encouraging people to buy, telling people that it was a good investment to buy. Real estate agents pushing people to buy, banks pushing people to buy," White said in an interview. "And then when the market collapses, the homeowner alone is left holding the bag and forced to bear the burden. And so I think we need to talk about the disproportionate burden that is falling on homeowners."

In The AZ Daily Star, Josh Brodesky has two good articles on the pros and cons of walking away from your home. They’re based on the controversial thoughts of University of Arizona law professor Brent T. White who offers a rationale for doing so.

Josh Brodesky: Maybe more need to walk away, prof says 
11/22/09

Real estate: Our readers weigh in on walking away from a home  11/29/09

no time for blogging

Between the holiday and out of town clients arriving on Friday, it’s been a busy few days.

And like most buyers today, my clients, with a little help from yours truly, 
made the effort and took the time to really learn about the upper-end Tucson Foothills market. They didn’t just see a house, fall in love and say
I have to have it. No, those days are so gone. This was their 4th house hunting trip to Tucson. And with each trip we sharpened their understanding of the market and narrowed down the possibilities.

And because they now had such a good understanding of houses and prices, when the right one came along, they knew it and were able to move quickly and with confidence.

They arrived Friday morning and we looked at three homes. And by 7:00 Friday night we were in contract on the right house at the right price. And they’re thrilled, because they're confident they made the right decision.  

This house will be house #4 in the very short lineup of the only upper-end Foothills homes in contract since early October - only at the right price

Now if only sellers made the same effort, as buyers do, to price their homes correctly, we'd all be a lot better off.    

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turkey day

We had dinner at our friends Lillian and Volker’s - and a great time and a wonderful meal was had by all.

That’s Volker wielding the knife, which he does almost as well as he does selecting and pouring the vino.

But they’ve got a leg up because they own Roma Imports,
"Tucson's Best Loved Italian Grocery and Deli" - Tucson Weekly

if you haven’t been, you’re missing out> RomaImports.com

What’s a picture worth

Looking at the pictures, which would you choose- A or B

A

or
B

A

or
B

A

or
B

last one,
A

or
B

You can’t be blamed if you didn’t notice, but A and B are the same house. They are, same house, same rooms, same yard, but as portrayed by two different listing agents. 

And oddly enough, agent B had the house listed, but it didn’t sell, and it's now been relisted with agent A. Go figure.

So what do you think a picture’s worth,

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signs of real estate recovery weaken

According to two recent reports, one from the Federal Housing Finance Administration, the other from The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index, recovery in housing markets across much of the US, and particularly in Arizona, may be further off than previously thought.

From The New York Times
Home Prices May Be Nearing a New Dip

The housing market is confronting an abundance of inventory, high unemployment, fearful consumers and devastated family balance sheets.

“There is no clear, easy way out for housing,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo. “Contrary to my hopes, housing prices and the housing market in general will weaken again.”

He forecast a new decline in prices of as much as 10 percent,

And The Arizona Star  
Arizona left behind as US home prices start to strengthen

Home prices across the nation are beginning to recover. But not in Arizona.

New figures Tuesday from the Federal Housing Finance Administration found that the price of the average home sold in the United States rose more than 2 percent between the second and third quarters of this year. That's the first increase in more than two years.

But the figures for Arizona went the other direction, with the average home price dropping by more than 2 percent.
_________________________________________________________

I’ll bet that many home sellers, along with their agents, are counting the days until January and hoping, like praying for rain, that hordes of out of town home buyers, fat with cash, will descend on the foothills and make this nightmare go away. How likely is that.

only at the right price

Yesterday, after a $400,000 price cut, we saw 4200 N Painted Quail Pl go to contract, listed at $1,095,000 ($277/sf)

Today, 6460 N Thimble Pass in Esperero Canyon, listed at $1,599,000 ($274/sf) also found a buyer. And coincidentally, it also had a $400,000ish price cut - from $1,997,500 to $1,599,000, which I’d duly noted,
 hefty high-end price cuts 

And isn't it interesting, that along with 5327 E Mission Hill Dr - in contract the other day at $1,000,000 ($166/sf) - and also drastically reduced, these are the only high-end contracts since early October – 6 weeks or more.

is it just coincidence, or could there be a message here

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gee, I wonder why this one didn’t sell

In Cobblestone, 7301 N Cathedral Rock Rd, listed for $1,495,000,
failed to sell and was withdrawn today.

Worth noting is that Cathedral Rock last sold for $1,100,000 in May 2008.

And it’s the same house today that it was in 08- and same location, same lot. So help me, I’m stumped, why do you think it hasn't sold.

Apropos, it was listed by a brokerage called HomeSmart.

priced to sit or priced to sell

4200 N Painted Quail Pl was first listed in March 07 for the laughable price of $1,950,000. And there it sat for 132 days. Then it went to $1,790,000, ho-ho-ho, for 173 days. And in a last and very determined gasp it was dropped all the way down to $1,499,900, for 284 days. Ha-ha-ha.
Not a chance.

Then on November 9th Painted Quail was listed with a new agent at a new and much nicer price, $1,095,000.

And today, just 14 days later, Voila’, and it’s under contract.
And that’s great news for all. But the sad part is, were it priced right from the get-go, the owners would likely have walked away with a lot more than they did today.

**the part in italics was lifted from a post I did on November 9th about this listing> listed, but not for sale

see it here> Painted Quail, No longer for sale 

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Existing-Home Sales Jump 10.1%

Home resales leaped up in October, rising far more than expected as a fat tax credit offset fears about joblessness.

Sales of existing homes increased by 10.1% to a 6.10 million annual rate from 5.54 million in September, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.

So says an article in today’s WSJ.com > Existing-Home Sales Jump 10.1% and since it's good news and comes from the NAR, it's sure to get plenty of spin.

But don't hang your hat on it, because it didn’t happen here in the Foothills.
Sales in October were, in fact, down a teeny-weeny bit from September.

But maybe it's our turn next.

(ps-if the wsj article doesn't come up, just Google the title and click to it from there)

week at a glance 11/16 – 11/22

Real Estate Activity for the Tucson Foothills

Most of the New Listing last week were actually NEW, rather than relisted old listings, and all but 2 are under $650k- those 2 at $895 & $995. So for a change, nothing new at $1.0+. Yeah!

New contracts were fairly evenly spaced from the $2’s up to a million, for one lucky seller.

But a disappointing turn out for homes Sold- just 5 from a low of $274,900 to a very low high of $755,000.

And price cuts, once again the busiest of the bunch and with the highest priced participants, saw cuts totaling about $1,850,000 from 22 listings. That’s a chunk of change that is, little by little, chipping away at the median list price which now stands at $599,000, vs. $649,000 earlier in the year.

for a glance at the previous week, click HERE

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selling ice to the Eskimos

no igloos, but otherwise, lots to choose from

Northwest – 94 for sale, 14 sold in 6 months = a 40+ month supply

Northeast – just 45 for sale, but just 2 sold, for a 135 month supply

Southeast – only 7 for sale but none sold, 0.

West – 9 for sale, none sold

North, the foothills – 117 for sale, 22 sold, for a rather lean 32 month supply

what’s the latest on short sales and foreclosures

As I’ve mentioned in the past, unlike other Arizona markets, short sales and foreclosures have not been a major factor in the Tucson Foothills.

But the last time I looked was October 8th > short sales and foreclosures still don’t amount to much in the Foothills.

So lets see where they are now;

-288 single family homes have sold in the foothills in the last 6 months

-8 were short sales, 30 were foreclosures, or 13% of total sales.

-there are 465 single family homes for sale - 20 are short sales, 8 are foreclosures, or just 6% of the total.

Since October 8th, the % of short sales and foreclosures that have sold is up 3.4% while the % of short sales and foreclosures for sale is down 2%.

So they still don’t amount to much.

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spec homes, even the showpiece of the nation's home builders is in trouble.

Housing's Woes Hit Builders' Convention as Financing for Model Project Stalls

Each year at its convention, the National Association of Home Builders highlights "The New American Home," a high-end model home designed to capture emerging trends in residential building and the shifting lifestyles of Americans. For its builder, the project is usually a career-boosting -- and profitable -- venture.

This year, the New American Home has unexpectedly become a poster child for the building industry's money troubles. The 6,800-square-foot contemporary home -- located 10 minutes from the Las Vegas Convention Center -- has five bedrooms, eight bathrooms and more than 50 solar panels.

What it doesn't have is most of the flooring, landscaping or a finished pool.

Domanico Custom Homes, the small private builder selected for the project, had to halt construction this month after a private investor pulled out. Now, Domanico says, the home has a "fire sale" price tag of $1.8 million, and the company warns that a big loss could put it out of business.

From The Wall Street Journal

continue reading,

Clouds Over Dream Home

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if they’re shopping for bargains in the Big Apple

brokers say, more wealthy buyers have come back to the table, looking for fabulous apartments at a bargain.

…even in the luxury co-op market, where there are more listings, only a fraction have been priced competitively enough to attract buyers, brokers said.

Robby Browne, a Corcoran broker, said he had several wealthy clients seeking trophy properties but had nothing to show them that was “good to buy.”

When sales first began to pick up over the summer, brokers say, some of the best-priced listings were sold; they have not been replaced by a new supply of similar listings.

“Now when you can say you bought it at a third off of its previous value, it is not quite so embarrassing,” he said. “You look smart.”

Nowhere is the luxury drought more apparent than at 15 Central Park West, the new condo at West 62nd Street, which not long ago had a listing for $80 million. That unit, a 5,200-square-foot four-bedroom, finally sold in September for $37 million.

From The New York Times > Lots to Spend, Little to Buy

Sound familiar!

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in the million $$ arena

and finally at the right price, 5327 E Mission Hill Dr in Skyline CC, most recently listed for $1,000,000 has gone to contract.  Having started out at $1,475,000 in February 08 it’s been a long haul for Mission Hill- built 1980/6011 sf/5 Beds/5.5 Baths/1.5 acres/2 story/$166/sf at list.

+

3252 E Camino Boscaje Escondido in Cat 10, listed just 44 days ago for $2,690,000, has dropped to $2,290,000 - $411/sf. Every little bit helps.

Also in Cat 10, 4790 N VIA DE LA GRANJA - recently listed for $1,299,000 ($222/sf) has been withdrawn from the market. It started out in September 07 at $1,750,000. Built 1990/5847 sf/5 Beds/5.5 Baths/masonry construction/1.6 acres/1 story/3 car/pool-spa.

I thought this was a good house in tip-top, but vintage, condition. And it’s on one of those signature lots in Cat 10 - set way back on a very private hill-top, with good city views. 
But depending on your tastes, it could do with some kitchen and bath renovation. And with 5.5 baths and a big kitchen, we’re talking big bucks. I had some buyers who really liked this house and puzzled over it for quite a while, but ultimately, went for something else.
I think the cost and ordeal of the updating, combined with the asking price, is what did it.

and Hurry & Save at under a million,

3505 E Windy Point Dr  in Foothills ll, listed 55 days ago for $995,000 was today reduced to $945,000. But get this.

‘LIMITED TIME OFFER!!SELLER WILLING TO SELL PROPERTY FOR $900,000 IF DEAL CLOSED BY NOV 30, 2009! $925,000 if closed by Dec. 31, 2009. Was $1.55 mill in 2007!

Just a day or two after it was listed, some buyers I was working with who really liked this house, had me bounce a verbal offer for it, but for somewhat less than the limited time offer price. As you can see, that went nowhere.

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according to Zillow

home values in the Tucson Foothills are down 24.5% September 08 to September 09. Wrong.

The nice chart that accompanies and illustrates this price drop indicates that median prices were about $465,000 in 08 and about $420,000 in September 09. Which is more or less correct. But using Zillow’s numbers and doing the math, my handy-dandy calculator tells me that that amounts to a –9.67% drop in prices, not –24.5%. Try it and see.

btw, $465,000 less 24.5% = $351,075 and that’s not correct either.
_______________________________________________________

Catalina Foothills Home Prices and Home Values

Median sale price ($)
$ 420,400   -24.5 % Y-o-Y

Median Sale Price

More Catalina Foothills Home Values

Zillowed again.

And for you sticklers, my figures from the MLS show a median of $485,000 in September 08 and $420,000 in 09, for a –13.4 drop in prices.

if it works for Needless Markup

The New York Times reports that Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus and other luxury retailers are deliberately stocking fewer luxury goods.

The strategy is aimed at weaning consumers from deep discounts.
By carrying fewer goods and selling them at full price, Saks is essentially telling customers: buy it now or live without it.

“What’s luxury retailing about?” Mr. Sadove (chairman, CEO of Saks) said. “It is about a scarcity of supply.”

This could work. Take Pima Canyon, instead of 18 homes for sale, the home owners get together, draw straws, and stingily dole the listings out, so there’s never more than 2 or 3 for sale. Hey, if you want Pima Canyon …

“Upscale stores want to train the customer that luxury equals exclusivity and that they cannot assume they can wait and they’re able to buy it on sale,” said William S. Taubman, chief operating officer of Taubman Centers.

You got that.

Luxury Stores Trim Inventory and Discounts

if it's any consolation, it’s not just here in the foothills

The U.S. housing market is sputtering again, adding to doubts about the vigor of the economic recovery

From WSJ.com

Fear of Double Dip in Housing

Home Starts Tumble and Mortgage Delinquencies Rise, Casting Cloud Over Recovery

Just a few months after housing showed signs of leveling off, bad weather and uncertainty over the extension of a home-buyer tax credit sent new-home starts in October tumbling 10.6% from the previous month. They fell to the lowest level since April, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Starts of single-family houses fell 6.8%.

On Wednesday Pulte Homes Inc., the nation's largest home builder, warned investors of a grim outlook. "As we look out to 2010, we are expecting difficult conditions to continue," said chief executive Richard Dugas.

For borrowers with strong credit records, 30-year home mortgages are available for fixed rates of just under 5%, near the lowest levels in 50 years. That is helping demand, but many people can't get such loans because they have too much debt or are unemployed.

So mortgage rates are at their lowest level  in 50 years, but, despite that, mortgage applications are at their lowest level in 12 years.
Something’s wrong here, you think.

Fear of Double Dip in Housing

a snapshot of the Tucson Foothills home market

for Single family homes, by price range

$0 - $499
170 for sale > 44 in contract > 49 sold (60 days)
= a 6.9 month supply of homes for sale

$500 - $749
108 for sale > 16 in contract > 21 sold (“ “)
= a 10+ month supply of homes for sale

$750 - $999
66 for sale > 5 in contract > 9 sold
= a 14+ month supply of homes for sale

$1.0 - $1.499
55 for sale > 3 in contract > 3 sold
= a 36+ month supply of homes for sale

$1.5 - $1.999
21 for sale > 0 in contract > 0 sold
= the jury is out on the months supply of homes for sale

$2.0 & UP
43 for sale > 1 in contract > 1 sold
= an 86 month supply of homes for sale

Get the picture

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not just another wallflower

3407 E Via Palomita, listed on 11/5, went to contract on 11/7, fell out on 11/16 and today, 11/18, is again under contract. All in less than 2 weeks.

$975,000/$231/sf in La Paloma Estates

PS- this house last sold in 1998 for $710,000, so in pricing it this time round, they priced it to sell, not to sit on the sidelines.

See it here> 3407 E Via Palomita

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why list it if you can’t get it sold

Given the state of the market you’d think that, if for no other reason than pure self interest, agents would stop taking listings at unrealistic prices.

If all agents did that - don’t worry they won’t - and also retired existing listings that are not at a marketable price and where the owners refuse to budge, we’d have a shot at getting to where we need to be.

But that won’t happen, because, just like the owners, agents believe that they’ll somehow defy gravity, get lucky, and sell that house. And even if they don’t believe that, if they don’t take it, another agent will, so what’s the point. And the Realtor® culture has always been to get the listing. Period. That’s the culture. And if you’ve ever worked at a big company, they have a culture, and if you don’t adhere to it you’re out on your ass. The NAR, by the way, is the largest trade group in America.

This Realtor® thinking, this culture, comes from the NAR. From decades of the NAR doing their best to bluff their way into the hearts and minds of the American homeowner. Kinda like GM did. By delivering a mediocre product and glossing over it with PR spin and advertising. And like GM, it worked for a while, a long while. But also like GM, that era has come to an end.

Why doesn’t the NAR - instead of organizing another rah-rah sales conference in New Orleans or San Diego, bloated with a bunch of hucksters charged with charging up the troops – concentrate their efforts on doing things that will actually help the consumer and thereby further the value of Realtors®. 

What an opportunity for the new President of the NAR, Vickie Cox Golder, who, by the way, is from right here in little old Tucson. Imagine that. 
Ms Golder has an opportunity to turn off the pipeline of bs at the NAR and put in place practices and systems designed to level with and help consumers, rather than going with the flow of more misguided and self defeating efforts to further, at all costs, the agenda of the NAR.

If that happened, a big if, that new culture might eventually dribble downhill to real estate brokerages in cities and towns all across America. And it just might instill a real sense of purpose, more ethical behavior, and eventually, a well earned and more trusted relationship between Realtors® and consumers.

cheapest in Villages 5 at La Paloma

3419 E Via Paloma Colipava, today cut it’s price from $605,000 to $520,000, or $169/sf.

Looking back in there, average $/sf sold prices were -

$233/sf in 04
$239/sf in 05
$250/sf in 06
$258/sf in 07
$282/sf in 08
$194/sf in 09 (but just 1 sold)
Everything in here was built in 03, 04 and 05.

Here’s the kicker. It was first listed in December 06 and went to contract in May 07 at $749,000. And it sat in escrow for 2+ months and then, for some unknown reason, fell out. If they only knew then what they know now. Over the next 2+ years they dropped the price a few times in chunks of about $50k, until this $85k cut. And at $169/sf, even in this market, this may be the last one. The only other one for sale in there is much smaller and $235/sf.

I showed this house some months ago and while I don’t remember much about it, my memory is that is was nice, if not remarkable. 2 story though and not much in the way of views.

If you’re looking, check it out> 3419 E Via Paloma Colipava

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more slippage at the upper end

5109 N Camino Real, a new spec home listed for $1,195,000 that quickly went to contract, has, even more quickly, fallen out. It went to contract 10 days ago, after just 36 days on market, a record I think, and today 
re-joins the other 118 million$$+ homes looking for a buyer.

So make that 5 4 under contract at a million+.

I mentioned Cmo Real here> just when you least expect it and coincidentally, the other house mentioned in that post - 3407 E Via Palomita, in La Paloma Estates – that also went to contract very quickly, also fell out quickly and is back on the market.

And way up in the thin air of the Canyons, 7417 N Secret Canyon Dr, another new spec home, had a hefty $510,000 price cut today– from $4,500,000 to $3,990,000, $552/sf, but if you have to ask, …

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Pima Canyon for under a million

Last week I mentioned that, 7598 N Mystic Canyon Dr, first listed in June 06 (still under construction) as a new spec home for $1,400,000 is now down to $1,075,000. Forget that.

That was last week, this week it’s $999,000, and not a short sale or REO

7598 N Mystic Canyon Dr

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the Tucson Foothills at a million and up

119 for sale, 5 under contract, 5 sold (last 60 days)

PS- the last contract was 10 days ago and 2 of the 5 under contract are short sales, so don’t hold your breath

That’s it,

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Monday, Monday

oops! The contract on 3407 E Via Palomita didn’t stick. It went to contract last week after just 2 days, but it’s back on today. Buyer remorse, change of heart, who knows. $975,000 in La Paloma Estates,

And a new listing at 6156  N Ventana View Pl in the Ridge at Ventana Cyn, described as ‘Absolutely brilliant contemporary 4 bedroom home on the 12th Canyon hole of Ventana.3100sf of elegance w/separate Casita…’

Built 1999/3099 sf/4 Beds/3.5 Baths/concrete block construction/
2 stories/2 car/.20 acres/no pool/but with golf course views/$895,000/$289/sf/and last sold in 04 for $640,000/so a 39% price pop, but the listing says, Entire home remodeled w/no detail overlooked/so maybe, you be the judge

and 6 expired listings from the mundane to the magnificent.
Skipping the mundane, the Lee Marvin estate, that incomparable Joesler in the old foothills listed for $5,950,000 expired today. Truly a unique property, it’s a 7193 sf Joesler with a guest house, on 12 acres in the old foothills, and with a fish caught by Lee Marvin.

 

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seen around town

 

Tres Chic, no

fast tracking it

5905 N Camino Escalante was listed on 10/5 for $1,625,000 and 8 days later dropped to $1,525,000. And today, 30 days later, dropped to $1,460,000. It looks like they mean business.

Built 2007/4861 sf/3 Beds/3 Baths/1.1 acre/mud adobe construction/pool/
3 car garage + 2 car carport/$1,460,000/$300/sf

I haven’t seen it in person, but, from what I see, it also looks like the real thing.

the listing> 5905 N Camino Escalante

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they’re bound to get it right one of these times

The National Association of Realtors' chief economist predicted yesterday that housing prices will rise for the first time in four years in 2010 as sales return to a normal pace.

Resales could increase by 800,000 above this year's 5 million mark, and new-home sales could rise as well, even if builders continue to have trouble getting construction financing. Yun also forecast that Realtor incomes will go up 20 percent next year.

“We will be set for a durable economic recovery,” he said.

Yun said his economic model could prove wrong, but he stood by his projections as being on the conservative side. He drew particular attention to improving affordability, as measured by the relationship between price and income. The price-income ratio rose rapidly from the 2.6 norm of 1984-2001 to reach a record 3.3 and has now fallen to 2.4.

The ratio was Yun's indicator for measuring pent-up demand and a sign that prices should rise next year. For that reason, would-be buyers should no longer fear that the homes they purchase today will lose value tomorrow, he said.

Other economists weren't quite ready to cheer the coming new year.

Patrick Nugent, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Massachusetts, thinks prices will fall 3 percent to 5 percent next year because the tax credit isn't likely to generate that many new buyers, many of whom already advanced their purchase decisions thinking the tax credit would end this month.

Stuart Gabriel, director of the Simon Center for Real Estate at UCLA, put it this way: “We are hopeful in many respects that we've caught the falling knife. That being said, our hands are bloody, and the uncertainties that are pertinent to the housing forecast at this moment are very significant and much greater than would typically be the case.”

Michael Lea, head of the Corky McMillin Center for Real Estate at San Diego State University, said that while San Diego housing prices may have bottomed out, foreclosures will still pose a problem if homeowners can't modify their troubled loans.

“I think we had such overbuilding and an overzealous housing market coming into this that it's going to be a slower period for housing to come out,” Lea said.

James Hamilton, an economist at the University of California San Diego, agreed with Yun that prices may have fallen further than needed to correct the market, but he doesn't think they are ready to rebound in a significant way.

“I don't think there is any guarantee that it's all behind us at this point, even if it (too much price reduction) were true,” Hamilton said.

From The San Diego Union Tribune

Realtors cheer prediction of rising home prices

my, how things have changed

5360 N Apache Hills Tr, in Sunrise Territory Village, sold for $560,000 in September 05 after just 21 days.

In January 08 it was listed again for $524,900, and is now down to $395,000, and is still for sale.

1984 built/by John Kline/2385 sf/masonry construction/3 Beds/2.5 Baths/
1 level/2 car/updated kitchen/.70 acre/$395,000/$166/sf.

I showed this house in July when it was $450,000, I think, and now, at 29% off it’s 05 sale price I can’t believe it’s still for sale,

5360 N Apache Hills Tr
**link will expire on 12/12/09**

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week at a glance, 11/9-11/13

Real Estate Activity in the Tucson Foothills this past week,

With twice as many new contracts and half as many new listings, compared to the week of 11/2-11/6, activity for this week was, at least, 
in a positive direction.

The 12 new contracts went from $245,000, and were fairly evenly spaced, up to $949,000, the solds though, were only in the $3’s, $4’s and $5’s.

And price reductions, 18 from $293,500 to $2,249,000, continue at a robust pace.

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range pricing, it’s (becoming) all the rage

Another range priced home hit the market today,

6020 N Desert Moon Ct in Ventana CC was re-listed today and range priced; Seller will accept or counter offers $995,000-$1,195,000. 
(It had been listed for $1,175,000 and not range priced)

So, as the game is played, if you intend to play by the rules your offer must fall within the range. If it doesn’t, presumably, it will be rejected, or ignored, or politely declined.

That’s the theory. But in practice, things often work out quite different.
I perused the MLS for range priced homes sold in the last few months, and here’s what I found happens when push comes to shove

Range Priced	Sold
$207,000 - $230,000	$207,000
$339,000- $375,000	$324,900
$345,000- $359,000	$341,500
$499,000 - $525,000	$460,000
$650,000- 699,000	$596,600
675K + 700K	640k
$695,000 - $725,000	$665,000
$699,000 - $729,000	$685,000
$725,000 - $745,000	$725,000
$1,100,000-$1,249,000	$1,100,000

I mentioned this range pricing phenomena the other day;
Also, I’ve noticed a spurt of range pricing lately and all I can figure is that sellers are trying to avoid getting, what they would consider, low-ball offers. So be it. They own it, they can price it wherever and however they want. On the other hand, considering the market, I wonder if, in doing so, instead of encouraging offers in the range, that they risk discouraging any offers at all.

Judging from that list of range priced homes that sold, it would seem that sellers are not discouraging any offers at all. And that buyers, at least some of them, are ignoring the range and offering what they want and that sellers are playing ball.

But I still don’t buy it, because we only know that about those that have sold. And there are 39 others for sale that have not sold. What’s holding them back.

And who cares about the range, it could be $1.0 to $10.0, the bottom of it is the only number that matters. The problem with most range priced homes is that, just like non-range priced homes, they're overpriced, that is, the bottom of the range is too high to invite interest.

Because if buyers are going to come in at all, are any of them going to come in at more than the bottom of the range. I’ve yet to see it.

The moral of the story; if you see a range priced home that you like, but you don’t like the bottom of the range, go for it, for what makes sense to you.

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does age matter

Starting in the 1930’s with the homes built by Joesler and Murphey, homes in the foothills range from 70+ years old to brand new. And I thought it would be interesting to see the relationship between the age of homes in the Foothills and their selling prices. (an appraiser is doing a class in a few weeks on just this topic, should be interesting)

This is a broad look at age and price that does not account for the condition of the homes, updating, renovation, or lack of, or the particulars of one location vs another within the Foothills. But it is based on sales for the last 2 years so, except for the oldest homes 1930 –1959, there is ample data to draw from and smooth out some of the bumps.

The chart shows average selling prices of each age group for homes sold in the last 2 years in the Tucson Foothills.

It’s no surprise that the newest homes are selling at the highest prices, they’re the biggest and have the requisite high-end amenities, but it’s interesting to see the oldest homes come in in second place, ahead of homes built in the 1980’s and 90’s.

Even more curious, if I cut the oldest category back just three years, to 1930 – 1956, when Joesler was building in the Foothills,  the average selling price jumps to $715,533.

$$/sf prices follow a somewhat similar pattern.

Year	1930- 59	1960-69	1970-79	1980-89	1990-99	2000-09
$$/sf	$193	$172	$177	$193	$203	$235
#SOLD	28	72	207	246	269	215

And again, cutting the oldest category back to 1930-1956, $$/sf jumps to $215. The Joesler effect.

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they’re neck n’ neck outta the gate

With 6273 N Desert Moon Lp just listed for $1,450,000/$348/sf, Ventana CC joins ranks with Pima Cyn and Cat 10 for the dubious honor of most high-end homes for sale in the foothills

here’s the lineup,

in Ventana - 16 for sale at a million or more & 1 sold in 6 months

in Cat 10 – 16 for sale at a million or more & 0 sold in 6 months

in Pima Cyn – 18 for sale at a million or more, but 6 sold in 6 months

place your bets, if you dare

September 08 – October 09 in the Foothills

sometimes it helps to step back and take the long view (no pun intended)
Tucson Foothills single family home sales + average/median prices

 

Everything here makes sense, except for the spurt, and subsequent fizzle, in sales and prices in June/July. Why did that happen, what caused it?

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a textbook example of prices then and now

6126 E Coyotes Den Pl in Rio Verde Vista sold 4 years ago, in September 05, for $607,587.

It sold again today for $537,000- or 11.6% less than in 05.
And with average sold prices, then and now, down -11.4%, they’re in perfect sync with the market.

Small comfort, but they sold in 75 days,

for $236/sf.

come on in, the water’s fine

A few weeks ago I went on about how difficult it is to sell a home with an indoor pool, very few available, but that’s still a few too many

So of course today 6941 N Saint Andrews Dr in Skyline CC, listed for $800,000, went to contract after just 49 days, and guess what it has,

See it here> 6941 N Saint Andrews Dr 

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psst! the cheat sheet

It’s been announced that beginning November 16th the TAR will be turning on GREEN features in the MLS.

Huh! GREEN features?

This will allow for more accurate listings by enabling the broker to include those aspects of the property that address environmental efficiency.

TUCSON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE
RESIDENTIAL GREEN BUILDING FEATURES ABBREVIATIONS

Like these;

LOCATION, LOT DESIGN
Previously Developed - Built on a previously developed site
Infill Site - An infill site bordering existing development
Only native plants - Uses only native plants

RESOURCE EFFICIENCY
SIPS - Structural Insulated Panels
Insulatd Concret Frm - Insulated Concrete Forms
Natural Material - Natural Building Material
FSC Certified Wood - Forest Stewardship Council certified wood
Renewable Flooring - Rapidly renewable flooring (bamboo, cork, recycled
wood)

ENERGY EFFICIENCY
HERS Rating  - Home Energy Rating Score
Enrgy Smart Home Ratg - Energy Smart Home Scale Rating
Energy Star Qualifid - Energy Star Qualified
Utlty Co EE Prog Crt - Has utility sponsored energy efficiency program
Govt EE Prog Crt - Has government sponsored energy efficiency
program
EnergyStarAppliance - Energy Star rated appliances
EnergyStar Light Pkg - Energy Star advanced lighting package
EnergyStar Light Pkg - Energy Star advanced lighting package
Solar Hot Water Sys - Solar hot water system
Solar PV System Solar - Photovoltaic system
EnergyStar Windows - Energy Star rated windows
EnergyStar Skylights - Energy Star rated skylights
LowE Dual Pane Wndws - Low E dual pane windows

WATER EFFICIENCY
Grey-Water Lines - Grey-Water Plumbing Lines
Tankless Water Htr - Point-of-use tankless hot water heater
WaterSense Faucets - EPA WaterSense faucets
WaterSense Showerheads - EPA WaterSense showerheads

INDOOR ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
EnergyStar Air Package - Energy Star Indoor Air Quality Package
Kit Exhaust Out - Exhaust system in kitchen vents outside
Bath Exhaust Out - Exhaust systems in bathrooms vent outside
Whl Hse Air Filt Sys - Whole house air filtration system
Non Fmldhd Cabnets - No formaldehyde in cabinets

CERTIFICATIONS
NAHB Bronze - National Association of Home Builders Bronze
NAHB Silver - National Association of Home Builders Silver
NAHB Gold - National Association of Home Builders Gold
NAHB Platinum - National Association of Home Builders Platinum
USGBC LEED Certified - US Green Building Council LEED Certified
USGBC LEED Silver - US Green Building Council LEED Certified Silver
USGBC LEED Gold -  US Green Building Council LEED Certified Gold
USGBC LEED Platinum - US Green Building Council LEED Certified
Platinum
Reg Res Grn Bld Bronze - Regional Residential Green Building Program
Bronze Reg Res Grn Bld Silver - Regional Residential Green Building Program Silver
Reg Res Grn Bld Gold - Regional Residential Green Building Program Gold
Reg Res Grn Bld Emerald - Regional Residential Green Building Program
Emerald

Presumably these GREEN features will be included in the listing information available to consumers on the public MLS site and on LongRealty.com and other public sites. So study, there will be a test.

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what happened today, 11/10

Nothing that’s going to make a dent, but here it is.

A few new listings,

3292 E Camino Juan Paisano in La Paloma was listed, and range priced, Seller will consider offers between $1,295,000-$1,495,000.  
FYI- Juan Paisano last sold in January 06 for $1,245,000, so today they’re looking for a little better than 06 prices. Hey, You never know.

Also, I’ve noticed a spurt of range pricing lately and all I can figure is that sellers are trying to avoid getting, what they would consider, low-ball offers. So be it. They own it, they can price it wherever and however they want. On the other hand, considering the market, I wonder, if in doing so, instead of encouraging offers in the range, that they risk discouraging any offers at all.

5254 E Mission Hill Dr in Skyline CC was re-listed along with a nice price cut from $1,750,000 to $1,595,000.

5760 N Moccasin Tr, listed for $650,000 last sold in June 03 for $470,000.

new contracts, just 1

5886 N Golden Eagle Dr in Ventana CC went to contract at $599,000/$269/sf after just 40 days on the market.

and 3 sales, in the $3’s and $4’s

4161 E Pontatoc Canyon Dr listed at $379,000, sold $365,000/$151/sf.
4760 N Scenic Mountain Dr listed for $409,900 went for $409,000/$167/sf
4585 N Camino Escuela, a REO, listed for $465,000 went for $410,000/$132/sf. I thought the house was OK, but the lot, no way. And they paid, or overpaid, $246,000 for the lot in 06, then built a 3098 sf house and the whole package sold for $410. Another example, I think, of builders/investors gone wild.

That’s it.

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a real foothills charmer

5810  N Vista Valverde in the old foothills/$535,000/$235/sf/ built 1969/masonry stucco/2272 sf/3 Beds/2 Baths/2 car/pool/1.3 acres/very private with some mountain views/very nicely updated – kitchen, baths, stained concrete floors, nice solid wood doors, double pane windows…

It’s been on the market for 31 days. Not a long time as things go, but a few years ago, buyers would’ve been fighting tooth and nail over this house. And for good reason, it’s special and they’re few and far between. 

If this sounds like you, check it out. It’s better in person than in the pictures

the listing> Vista Valverde

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listed, but not for sale

4200 N Painted Quail Pl was first listed in March 07 for the laughable price of $1,950,000. And there it sat for 132 days. Then it went to $1,790,000, ho-ho-ho, for 173 days. And in a last and very determined gasp it was dropped all the way down to $1,499,900, for 284 days. Ha-ha-ha. Not a chance.

But it would have been fun to be a fly on the wall during those listing presentations and ongoing discussions of pricing strategy.

Today it was listed with a new agent at a new and much nicer price, $1,095,000. So now, finally, it’s for sale.

see it here> 4200 N Painted Quail Pl

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even more to choose from in Cat 10

Off the market since June, 4441 N Camino Sumo is back in the fray today & range priced from $2.5 to $2.7 - Sellers will accept or counter offers from $2,500,000-$2,700,000. That’s in Cat 10, where there are now 17 for sale from $890,000 to $2,950,000, 16 of which are $1,000,0000 or more. And still no sales at a million or more since February 08.

3 homes did sell in Cat 10 in the last 6 months, for; $587,500, $640,000 and $755,000. That’s it! And there’s nothing under contract at the moment.

Cat 10 is a wonderful place, a personal favorite, and with many lovely homes for sale. But so what, buyers aren’t buying. Not at those prices.

You can’t even do the math, there’s nothing to go on.

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Pima Canyon, for about a million bucks

7598 N Mystic Canyon Dr, first listed in June 06 (still under construction) as a new spec home for $1,400,000 is now down to $1,075,000.

It’s the lowest priced home in PC, in both list price and $$/sf price.
2007 built/3552 sf/4 Beds/3.5 Baths/1.7 acres/3 car/pool/$303/sf.

I’ve shown this house a couple of times and it’s a very nice, very comfortable house. It’s not a trophy house, not a WOW house, but comfortable, nicely laid out and finished with good mountain views.

Why hasn’t it sold? There’s no doubt it’s because it’s at the very southwest corner of PC, with a somewhat awkward entry and from the south side of the house, the front, gets some noise from Skyline Dr. That’s the compromise. But in back, the north side, where the patio & pool, mountain views, etc reside, there’s very little of that.

The 8 sold in there in the last 6 months averaged $1,482,250 including the half-baked spec foreclosure that went for $803,000.

Eliminate that one and the average sold jumps to $1,579,286.

UPDATE: a reader wrote in, I guess the eyesore of a transformer/ electricity station next to the home doesn't help. 
I’d forgotten about that, because as I recall it is not visible from the house. Though it’s been 6 or 8 months and I may be wrong. So if it is, I’m sure it doesn’t help.

see it here> 7598 N Mystic Canyon Dr

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just when you least expect it

Scooped up in no time, 3407 E Via Palomita, in La Paloma Estates, is reported under contract today. It was listed barely 2 days ago for $975,000.

It’s a Sante Fe, built 1996/4213 sf/4 Beds/3 Baths/.80 acres/1 level/$231/sf as listed.

And in the ‘keeping good company’ department, the 9 homes sold in this section of La P in the last few years sold for an average of $1,900,556. ___________________________________________________

And 5109 N Camino Real, listed 36 days ago for $1,195,000, is also reported under contract today. It’s a new spec home, built 2009/
4194 sf/5 Beds/3.5 Baths/1 acre/1 level/no pool, but a 5 car garage/$285/sf as listed.
I may be wrong, but I’m guessing the 5 car garage was high on this buyers wish list. Not many people are looking for them, but if you are, they're near impossible to find.

To my memory, this is the quickest spec home contract in ages.

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just in time

another new spec home for Pima Canyon

But according to the listing info, this one has the distinction of being a Leed certified one of a kind, energy-efficient and eco friendly home. Including: solar water heating, photovoltaic electric power generation, water harvesting & much more.

to be Built – completed late 2010/5264 sf/5 Beds/4.5 Baths/1.2 acres/pool/3 car/$2,595,000/$493/sf.

This is the first Leed certified new construction I’ve run across in the Foothills. So it’ll be interesting to see how it’s received.

the listing, no pics though> 1407 E Desert Garden Dr

This makes 18 for sale in PC, none under contract at the moment and 8 sold in the last 6 months. And believe it or not, that’s an enviable sales record for high-end communities in the Tucson Foothills.

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week at a glance

Real Estate Activity in the Tucson Foothills this past week,

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here we go again

6330 E Valle Di Cadore, in Fairfield Sunrise East,  is back for another go at it

first listed in December 04 as a spec home, starting at (with agent #1) $950,000 then $899,000 then 935,000 then 899,000 then 1,200,000 then (agent #2) 1,365,000 then 1,319,300 then (agent #3)  1,250,000 then 1,190,000 then 1,250,000 then 1,150,000 then 1,130,000 then (agent #4) 999,000, 975,000, 899,000, 825,000 then (agent # 5) 769,000, 667,000, 585,000, and sold for $570,000 in August 08 as a foreclosure.

Mind you, Valle Di Cadore was for sale during the ascent to, the pinnacle of and the decline from the boom-boom years. Yet, after all that time, it sold for just $570,000 as a foreclosure.

(1 year later) Round 2,

Deja Vu, ignoring all that nasty stuff, it was listed this past August for $865,000 and today reduced to $799,000 ...

keeping score; home sales, then and now

In case you’re wondering,

Here’s a look at year-to-date home sales + (average/median) prices 
& the number of homes sold at $1.0 +,  for the Tucson Foothills

2009 – 448 sold ($538,859/$438,250)- 36

2008 – 458 sold ($627,382/$525,000)- 50

2007 – 543 sold ($686,941/$548,500)- 84

2006 – 611 sold ($705,592/$579,500)- 102

2005 – 848 sold ($613,033/$515,000)- 81

2004 – 851 sold ($498,379/$408,000)- 54

2003 – 800 sold ($413,176/$350,000)- 22

So sales are neck n’ neck with last year, but just a little better than half what they were in 04, 05. And average/median prices are now firmly ahead of 04 but still a long way from 05.

Million + sales on the other hand are still in the dumpster and, with more for sale now than there were then, the prospects for the upper end are very lean.

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