The Catalina Foothills

ready or not, here are the almost final numbers

There are likely to be a few stragglers, and I’ll revise as they drift in, but meanwhile, here’s a snapshot of home sales in the Tucson foothills for 2009.

Total Sold – 514 single family homes/ (421 currently for sale)
Average Sold price - $535,606 
Median Sold price - $440,000 
Total $$ Value of Homes Sold - $275,301,303

By price range;
$0-$499,999
315 Sold 
158 currently for sale, or about a 6 month supply

$500,000 - $999,999
161 Sold
151 currently for sale, an 11 month supply

$1,000,000 & up
38 Sold 
112 currently for sale, a 35 month supply

looking back, in 2008;

Total Sold – 521 (50 sold at $1.0 & up)
Average Sold price - $605,142 
Median Sold price - $512,000 
Total $$ Value of Homes Sold - $315,279,210

in 2007;

Total Sold – 609 (89 sold at $1.0 & up)
Average Sold price - $675,168 
Median Sold price - $540,000 
Total $$ Value of Homes Sold - $411,177,023

in 2006;

Total Sold – 707 (116 sold at $1.0 &  Up)
Average Sold price - $699,236 
Median Sold price - $570,000 
Total $$ Value of Homes Sold - $494,359,860

When I reported the final numbers last year, as a consoling thought I said something about, … it can only get better next year.

aha. Cheers, Happy New Year!

taking their licks at the high-end

7063 N Mission Hill Ln in Skyline Country Club sold for $815,000 in  2000. It was then updated, by Robinson & Shades, no less, and put back on the market in mid 2007 for $1,750,000. (Meanwhile, it had been re-mortgaged in late 06 for $1,540,000 - to pay for the updating? or maybe just a cash advance on the big sale)

But no big sale, so the price was reduced in dribs and drabs until late this spring when it dropped to $1,200,000, as short sale, and immediately went to contract. It sold today for $1,100,000 ($273/sf). I’d say the buyers should be pleased.
Built 1981/4.5 acres/4028 sf/4 Beds/3.5 Baths/1 story/way up top in Skyline, bordering the Coronado National Forest.
 

I have no idea what was spent on the updating, but Robinson & Shades, which is no longer Robinson & Shades, did not come cheap.

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And 7390 N Cobblestone Rd, in Cobblestone, sold for $1,318,000 in May 07 – and was back on the market in January 09 for $1,395,000.
 
But no one bit, so it dropped to $1,250,000, then to $1,195,000, and someone bit and it’s now in contract. So $150,000 or so, off the top.

But hey, that’s the market.

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a surprising sale in the $9’s

4620 N Camino Gacela, listed for $985,000, sold today for $955,000 ($237/sf) after just 25 days on the market. It looks like a beautiful house, but when it was listed in November I was skeptical and wondered out loud how they’d manage to get it sold, even if they did find a willing and able buyer.  see what happened today)

Why, because Cmo Gacela is in Heatherwood Hills, where the price of homes, for sale and sold, is appreciably less than the high $9’s. And given the super cautious, squeaky tight lending/appraisal standards that we’re seeing, I couldn’t imagine how it could appraise. But maybe the buyers put down a big chunk of cash, like $500k or more. That would do it.

Going back 4 years, the next highest sale in Heatherwood Hills was $705,000, and that was in June 06. Then one at $630, a few in the $5’s and everything else in the $4’s & $3’s.
Appraise or not, you look at those figures and you have to ask, why would someone plunk down $955k. 3 years ago maybe, but today,

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Just Sold

We all get them, even me, those cheerful postcards that announce,

Hi neighbor,

I Just Sold a home at 123 Happy Trails

Tucson, Az 8518

I got one just like that today. And hey, that’s what Realtors® do,
and I used to do it too. If you’re a listing agent, it’s how you get your name around the neighborhood.

But not content to leave well enough alone, this one went on to say,

For fast results, work with an agent who

knows how to get the job done.

OK, sure. Except that I know, and so does everyone else in the neighborhood - because the damn For Sale signs have been out there long enough to become a fixture - that the house at 123 Happy Trails was on the market for at least a year before it sold.

And they wonder why they don’t get no respect.

faint signs of life at the upper end

Cat 10 strikes again, but again, at under a million.
4700 N Camino Sumo, on the market since January and first listed for $1,050,000, went to contract today listed at $890,000 ($227/sf).
This will be the 5th sale in Cat 10 for 2009 and that’s delightful.
But all 5 are under a million$ and that leaves 15 for sale in Cat 10, all over a million$$$, from $1.0 to $2.65.

And 7441 N Moon Spirit Ln in Cobblestone, 6 months on the market, and no price reductions, listed for $1,350,000 ($360/sf) is reported under contract today.

also,

They seem to be plugging away to find the right price, and maybe a buyer too, over at 5905 N Camino Escalante. An attractive 2007 built mud adobe, it had it’s 4th price cut today in just 84 days on the market –today going from $1,399,000 to $1,285,000 ($264/sf).  Just 84 days ago it was 1st offered at $1,625,000.

and 2 specs,

6750 E Tarahumara Tr went from $1,325,000 to $1,275,000, now a mere $319/sf. This is on unsubdivided land somewhere west of Kolb off Territory Dr.

+ 6155 N Whaleback Pl, in Ventana CC, went from $1,850,000 to $1,750,000, or $355/sf. Worth noting - on the market for 259 days and this is the first price cut.

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more road kill

6151 N Cerrada Tolsa, which abuts Campbell Ave just a little south of Skyline, finally sold today.

For sale since May 08, and ignoring the fact that it sat next to Campbell and, I guess, hoping everyone else would too, it was listed for $979,000 and sold today for $543,000.

Quite a few out of town buyers called me about this house; because it looked charming and appeared to have good mountain views, which it didn’t, unless you climbed a flagpole.

But when I told them about Campbell, that was the end of that. Who wants to pay big bucks to live on Campbell.

the price bar takes another hit

5280 E Mission Hill Dr left the market in May after failing to sell at $2.9, $2.2 and $1.850. It’s back today at $1,500,000 and at that price, it can’t, won’t last.

It’s one of my favorites, a Spanish Colonial, top quality masonry construction by Mike Wachs, simple impeccable details, in Skyline CC, on one of the very best city view lots,

It’s new construction, custom built 2007 and the owner has never occupied it-  4079sf/3 Beds/4 Baths/Library/1.1 acre.
I mentioned it last winter when it was $2.2 and, aside from the price, called it my new fav. At $1.5 it stands way out from the crowd.

see it here> 5280 E Mission Hill Dr

Given the state of the high-end market it may seem like I’m blowing smoke to say it can’t, won’t last. But I betcha it won’t.

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if it’s happening at all, it’s almost all at the low end

in the last 10 days we’ve had,

4 new listings, @ $355,000, $649,000, $1,495,000 (what looks to be an attractively priced newer home in the Summit) & $2,495,000- 
a re-listed French chateau in Skyline CC

12 price reductions, with all but one at well under a million, that one, the enormous spec/foreclosure on Camino Blanco

10 homes went to contract, 9 of them listed from $295,000 to $419,000 and one at $639,900. What else is new.

7 sold, 2 in the high 9’s, the remaining 5 at $600k and under. ditto!

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nah, it won’t happen here, not in the Foothills

Homeowners with mortgages of more than $1 million are defaulting at almost twice the U.S. rate and some are turning to so-called short sales to unload properties as stock-market losses and pay cuts squeeze wealthy borrowers.

"You are just starting to see the tip of the iceberg with luxury short sales," said Adrian Heyman, owner of Property Advisors, a real estate broker in Scottsdale, Ariz. "A lot of wealthy people are upside-down in their mortgages, and they just can't afford the second or third vacation home anymore."

"The reason the low end stopped falling is because the government stepped in with affordable loans," said Scott Simon, managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co., a Newport Beach-based investment firm that runs the world's largest bond fund. "There is no political will to bail out a million-dollar house."

From Bloomberg News to The Detroit Free Press to You
High-end borrowers turning to short sales
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How does this bode for the Tucson Foothills Million+ home market.
Currently we have 113 homes for sale (with more sure to come in January/February) priced from $1,000,000 to $13,500,000 and they’ve been on the market an average of 294 days, at an average list price of $2,134,738, median of $1,549,000.

On the other side of the equation, 37 have sold this year- after an average of 256 days on the market, for an average sold price of $1,450,649, median of $1,232,000. So, just considering the high-end, there’s a big gap between the price of the homes for sale and of those that have sold.

And based on YTD sales, (the most generous interpretation) we’re looking at about 3 years worth of high-end inventory. With much of it intended for the swarm of 2nd and retirement home buyers, who have so far done a pretty good job of not showing up.

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and now this

Recession Cuts Migration to Sun Belt, New Figures Show

From The New York Times

MIAMI — The Sun Belt states that grew like fertilized weeds during the real estate boom are now experiencing sharp declines in population growth, the Census Bureau said Wednesday.

But in yet another sign of the recession’s power to reshape established demographic trends, the new figures show that as of July, growth has slowed to a trickle in Arizona, while in Florida, Nevada and California, more Americans moved out than in.

Arizona dropped to eighth in overall growth rate, from first three years ago.
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It’s no secret that much of the Foothills home market - high, low and middle end – has become dependent on a steady stream of
well-heeled retirement and second home buyers. But if we build it and they don’t come, what’s Plan B.

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a mixed blessing for Cat 10

The Good News,
Another home sold today in Cat 10. 4790 N Via De La Granja sold for $995,000, and it was the highest priced sale this year. And also the highest priced sale in Cat 10 since February 08.

The not so Good News for Cat 10, that is for sellers,
is that it was the highest priced sale this year. And also the highest priced sale in Cat 10 since February 08.

You see there are 16 homes for sale in Cat 10, 15 of them priced higher than De La Granja, at $890,000, $1,000,000, $1,175,000, $1,295,000, $1,299,000, $1,349,000, $1,395,000, $1,550,000, $1,699,000, $1,775,000, $1,795,000, $1,895,000, $2,290,000, $2,490,000, $2,500,000 and $2,650,000. Or between $227 & $430/sf, for an average of $321/sf. And at those prices, no one’s biting.

De La Granja sold for $995,000 or $168/sf. (In that price range it was the best deal in the Foothills this year. Bar none. I represented the buyers) It was first listed in September 2007 for $1,750,000 and after 2+ years and a few big price cuts, when it dropped to $995, we pounced. It was range priced $995,000 to $1,150,000.

Including De La Granja, there have been just 4 sales this year in Cat 10, all under a million; $587,500, $640,000, $755,000 and De La Granja today for $995,000. They ranged from $168 to $268/sf, or an average of $224/sf. (I also represented the buyers of the house on Camino Sumo that sold for $587,500, $201/sf)

There’s no getting around it, the price bar has been lowered.
And it’s true for the high-end market throughout the foothills. 
Ignore it at your peril. 

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birds of a feather on Kolb Rd

5360 N Ventana Overlook Pl (the ) and 7055 E Foothills View Ct (the X) both started life as side-of-the-road spec homes back in the good old days when no one thought much about those details. And both spent more than 2 years on the market and both had many price cuts – and neither one found a buyer – and eventually both went to foreclosure.

Ventana Overlook was first listed in 2007 for $1,075,000, and Foothills View in 2006 for $900,000.

And after all that time and all they’d been through, they both went to contract within a few weeks of each other. Ventana Overlook went to contract last week listed at $499,900 ($154/sf) and today Foothills View, which went to contract 4 weeks ago, sold for $475,000 ($147/sf)

So they’re both going to end up selling for about half, or less, than their original asking price and for roughly the same $/sf. 

But I’m a little surprised that Foothills View went first. Because, if anything, I’d have thought Ventana Overlook, with the added convenience of backing right up to Gavi’s Italian Restaurant, would have been the first to go.

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in it for the short haul

Having just opened them in 2007, RealEstate.com has already pulled the plug on it’s Sierra Vista and Oro Valley offices. But instead of fessing up and announcing that it closed them because they couldn’t make a go of it, they chose to skirt the issue and pin the blame on Oro Valley and Sierra Vista, calling them tertiary markets. 3rd rate and apparently not good enough for the likes of RealEstate.com.
Imagine the gall. 

Victor Vaca, national vice president of sales for Charlotte, N.C.-based RealEstate.com, said the closures were in line with moves the company has made in other, smaller markets across the country. Sierra Vista and Oro Valley are "tertiary" outlying markets, he said, and RealEstate.com is focused on core metro areas.

blah-blah-blah, and Good riddance. I’ll bet they sang a different tune when they opened in 07.

And how do you suppose the people in Oro Valley & Sierra Vista, whose homes are listed with RealEstate.com, feel.

PS – in case you’re amongst the multitude who’ve never heard of it, RealEstate.com is a residential real estate brokerage and the brainchild of Barry Diller’s IAC/InterActiveCorp.

starting life as a short sale

I have no idea what the story is, but 4630 E Palais Pl in the Summit was listed today for the first time ever for $1,495,000 ($273/sf), as a short sale. It was built in 2007/1.1 acres/5469 sf/6 Beds/4.5 Baths/
2 story/4 car/Pool-Spa/and though I haven’t seen it in person, on paper, it looks like it might be a deal. That is, if you can negotiate and endure the short sale process.

Summit is a small, discreet, gated community with just 11 home sites at the very top of Swan.

There’s one other home for sale in there for $2,949,000 ($391/sf) and 2 others that were listed but didn’t sell and nothing sold in the last 3 years. So who knows.

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prices and such

5231 N Foothills Dr in Cat 7, sold for $450,000 exactly 4 years ago and went to contract today listed at $350,000. They did try selling it in 06 for $750,000, but maybe deciding to wait for better times, soon gave up. They snoozed, they losed.

6920 N Mercer Spring Pl, in Foothills ll, sold for $735,000 in 2001 and today went to contract listed at $780,000. Even if it sells for list, with commissions and closing costs, 8 years later and they’ll come out short. However, it went to contract after just 64 days, and no price cuts either.

And 5800 N Camino Padre Isidoro in Shadow Hills, sold for $555,000 in 04 and after a price cut today is down to $469,000, and still looking for a buyer. Though it may be tougher to find one now, because it’s listed as a possible short sale.

On a brighter note, 6652 N Avenida De Posada went to contract just 8 days ago at $1,495,000 ($336/sf) and today is listed as PENDING. Meaning they’ve leapt over all the hurdles and now are headed to COE.

And 3407 E Via Palomita in La Paloma Estates, listed for $975,000, sold today for $975,000 ($231/sf). Even with a stumble, they made quick work of this one.

It was listed on 11/5, went to contract on 11/7, fell out on 11/16, went back in contract on 11/18 and sold on 12/18. I mentioned it in a previous post, not just another wallflower

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the bigger they are …

From WSJ.COM

Fairfield Files for Chapter 11

By MIKE SPECTOR And LINGLING WEI

Fairfield Residential LLC, one of the nation's largest apartment owners and developers, filed for bankruptcy on Sunday, the latest casualty of the turmoil engulfing the U.S. real-estate market.

Fairfield, which has built some 64,000 apartments, condominiums and off-campus student-housing units throughout the country, failed amid an inability to refinance debt or sell investment properties. That left the private San Diego, Calif., company with a litany of near-term maturities on debts related to various development projects and other investments.

Fairfield filed for Chapter 11 late Sunday afternoon in Delaware and listed assets of $958 million and liabilities of $834.9 million as ...
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I wonder, could this be the same Fairfield, that built the various Fairfield communities just south of Sunrise between Kolb Rd and Craycroft- Fairfield River Estates, Fairfield Sunrise East, Fairfield Sunrise East Resub, Fairfield Sunrise East Resub 2. Seems likely.

like coal in your stocking

6500 N Saint Andrews Dr in Skyline Country Club went to contract more than 2 months ago, on October 9th, listed at $1,325,000.
But the deal fell through and today it’s back on the market.

Oy! Saint Andrews is a spec remodel, a tear down really, that was totally rebuilt and first listed in October 2006 for $2,100,000.
It’s been on the market since then and as far as I can tell, this was it’s first contract. It had recently dropped from $1,525,000 to $1,325,000 and that did it. Well almost.

What a drag. Two months of looking forward to putting it all behind you and two months off the market and what do you get, nothing. Not having a buyer is one thing, but getting one and then having it all fall through after such a long time is just awful.

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at the right price

5360 N Ventana Overlook Pl - which I mentioned last week when it was re-re-re-listed, this time as a foreclosure for $499,900 - started out at $1,075,000 in January 08 and left the market almost 2 years later, sans buyer, at $799,000. And today, at $499,900, it’s in contract. that’s it with the little red check,

And it’s a heck of a lot a house for the money and, if you like Italian, badda bing, Gavi’s is practically in the backyard.

where do we stand on sales & prices

Coming into the stretch 501 homes have sold in the Foothills this year for an average/median sold price of $533,373/$435,000.

This compares to 521 sold in 08, for $605,142/$512,000
to 07 - 609 sold @ $675,168/$540,000.
to 06 – 707 sold @ $699,236/$570,000
to 05 – 963 sold @ $619,075/$520,000
to 04 – 959 sold @ $497,759/$408,000

But that’s old news, right. We all know that sales & prices have been going down, down, down since the boom went bust. The real question is, now that we’re in recovery mode and interest rates are lower than ever and there’s a tax credit to boot, how have sales and prices progressed this year.

1st quarter – 107 sold @ $525,097/$445,000
2nd quarter – 119 sold @ $508,374/$420,000
3rd quarter – 171 sold @ $566,918/$445,000
4th quarter, so far – 104 sold @ $515,336/$446,938

Give me a minute and I’ll figure out how to put a good spin on those numbers. Let’s see, if only the 3rd quarter had

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a late model Joesler

A 1955 Joesler at 5051 N La Lomita was listed today for $1,195,000 ($273/sf). Joesler died in 56, so this was amongst his last.

4371 sf/5 Bedrooms/7.5 Baths/Brick construction/mission tile roof/pool/Adorable guest house w/small kitchen & balcony overlooking Camino Real wash/on 2.7 acres at the tippy-top of La Lomita- a quiet off the beaten path, but just steps from it all, street that runs northeast off Camino Real.

With La Lomita there are now 4 Joesler’s for sale in the foothills;
5450 N Calle La Cima @ $849,000 – where minimalism meets Joesler, an out of the way Joesler at 4320 N Alvernon Way @ $1,250,000 and the pièce de résistance, the Marvin Residence on 12 acres in the old foothills @ $5,850,000.

a Joesler for everyone!

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why bother

4912 N Avenida De Castilla, on the market since May 09, today dropped it’s price from $1,098,000 to $1,079,700. Let’s see, that’s $18,300,000, or about 1.6%. Like I said,

the best laid plans

Back in the good old days someone paid $750,000 for this house at 2321 E Calle Lustre in the old foothills and started, but never finished, not nearly, a large scale renovation- the house was built in 1937 and could have probably used it.
But I didn’t see it until this past August when it looked something like this, and was listed as a foreclosure for $475,200. At that point it was a confusing mess of started and abandoned projects scattered throughout the house. I didn’t know what to make of it.

But someone did, because it sold today for $420,000. $95/sf –
4414 sf/1 acre in the old foothills.
A deal maybe, as long as you could figure out what was what. 

see it here> 2321 E Calle Lustre

prices slammed across the board

This nice little house – I’ve shown it, it’s nice - at 5360 N Apache Hills Tr sold for $560,000 after just 21 days in September 05.

But when they put it back on the market in November 08 for less than they paid, for $524,900, they had no such luck. It sat, for 356 days and half a dozen price cuts, until yesterday when it went to contract listed at $395,000 ($166/sf). That’s a 30% loss + commissions + closing costs + …
Even if it went for list, and it probably didn’t, they’d be lucky to clear $367,500.

And it’s not a short sale and not a REO, it’s just an owner taking a big hit.

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the Million $$$ market game

Buying, selling or just in it for the sport, here’s an at-a-glance view
of the $1,000,000+ home market here in the Tucson Foothills

 

The players;
For Sale - # of homes currently for sale at a million or more
In contract - # of homes currently in contract
Sold - # of homes sold this year at a million or more
SS/REO - # of million+ Short Sales & REO’s currently listed

**the fine print – if a house is listed at a million or more but sells for less than a million, it’s automatically bumped and not included in the Sold column. Sorry. On the other hand, homes that were listed at a million or more and reduced to $999 or $998, or whatever, are not included in the For Sale column either. So, in the end, maybe it all evens out.

In any case, without fussing over the details, there’s no mistaking the state of the mil+ market. Stay tuned.

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… make him an offer he can’t refuse,

That's what the buyers of 6222 E Paseo Ventoso did. The house was vacant and listed for $599,900, but they got it for $465,000 ($131/sf). Why, because they made a clean cash offer with a quick close.

They made their deal on 12/3 and closed 8 days later on 12/11.
CASH, as is, no repairs. They stole it.

Because they wrote a squeaky clean offer - one not mucked up with a bunch of little contingencies. And the only thing the seller sees, because all there is to see, is a cash offer and a quick close. Who could resist.

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wrapping up the week with a few nice sales

And a good day for Ventana Country Club
First there’s 6400 N Desert Wind Cir in Ventana Country Club Estates.
Listed for $639,000 it sold for just $570,000 ($246/sf), but it did so in just 49 days.

These are very popular, or were, with second home owners. They’re smaller homes on small lots, no fuss, low maintenance and nicely located within the pearly gates of Ventana. This one-built 1999/2312 sf/2 Beds+ den/2 Baths/on not quite 1/4 acre. There was a time when homes like this flew off the shelf. But because they’re almost always purchased as a 2nd or 3rd home, and therefore a very discretionary purchase, they’ve suffered quite a bit in the downturn.

But that may be changing. Because 5886 N Golden Eagle Dr, also in Ventana and also a golf villa/patio home type residence, also sold today. Very similar to Desert Wind, Golden Eagle was built in
1995/2226 sf/2 Beds+ Den/2 Baths on 1/10 of an acre. Listed at $599,000 it went for $562,000 ($252/sf). But if you’re looking, fear not, there are still 13 of this type for sale in Ventana.

And # 3 in Ventana, but not a patio home, 6271 N Whaleback Pl listed for $999,000 sold for $960,000 ($274/sf) This is one of the homes that had recently dropped from a million+ to just under a mil and then went quickly to contract. Original list price was $1,275,000

And Cha-ching! selling today for $2,700,000 ($342/sf), 5831 E Finisterra ranks as the 3rd highest price sale this year in the Foothills.

First listed for $4.1 in April 08, this October it dropped from $3.4 to $2.9 and 7 days later went to contract. It last sold in 2004 for $1.8, but had a ‘floor to ceiling redesign & update’. Built 1988/7882 sf/1.4 acre/4 Beds/4.5 Baths/masonry construction/pool-spa/3 car/in Finisterra.

Finally, 6585 E Placita Elevada in Cimarron, which, when it was listed in September, I wrote that it couldn’t last. Well it didn’t and then it did. It went to contract in 6 days but fell out and then sat around for a month or so before another buyer came along. Today it closed for $570,000 ($172/sf) off a $592,500 list price.

See them all HERE

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a snapshot of Tucson Foothills sales & prices

Here’s a snapshot of Sales & Price trends for homes in 85718 – along with the greater Tucson metro - during the past 12 months, courtesy of Trulia.com.

85718, Tucson Recently Sold Homes

 
85718, Tucson Homes For Sale

85718, Tucson Recently Sold Homes

85718, Tucson Recently Sold Homes

I can’t vouch for the accuracy of the Tucson Metro data but, for 85718, Trulia’s portrayal of the foothills market is spot on.

And I can’t explain why sales and prices spiked so suddenly during the summer and then just as suddenly fell off. Perhaps it was a collective sigh of relief that the economy had pulled back from the brink of utter collapse, and then, once the giddiness had passed, a realization that there was still a very long and rough road to hoe.

In any case, here in the foothills this summer, which is usually a very slow time, there was a noticeable shift in peoples attitudes. Even clients of mine who’d bought homes in the spring expressed relief that they’d gotten in before things turned around. And of course listing agents and sellers were suddenly quite confident that the worst was behind us and all would soon be swell. And as a result of increasing sales and more positive attitudes, I advised clients of mine who had yet to buy -that while prices may or may not be going up, it was too early to tell - that I felt our bargaining power was weaker then than it had been a few months earlier. And for a very brief time it was.

Now, except for the low $$ end of the market, we appear to be closer in sales and prices to where we were during the depths of the collapse than to anything resembling a recovery.

But as we bottom out, now for the 2nd time, there are also signs that some sellers are finally ready to face the music. And if they do and price their homes as if - just under a million is the new $1,300,000 – then we’ll have a shot at bouncing off this bottom too.

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to dream the impossible dream

A home in Cimarron sold in 2005 for $515,000 and was re-listed in October 2007, well into the downturn and just two months after the mortgage meltdown, for $780,000. If they’d pulled it off they’d have scored a 50% gain, but they didn’t.

So today, 2+ years and many price cuts later, it’s down to $550,000 and withdrawn from the market. Nice try though.

A new home at the Summit at Finger Rock sold in 2005 for $807,500. And, with a straight face, it was re-listed in March 2007 for $1,415,000. Hey, just 75% more. If you're gonna do it you gotta make it worthwhile, right. Right. Now 2 1/2 years and 5 listing agents later, it expired last week at $995,000. They still don’t get it.

A home on Ozona Dr in Las Lomas De Kino sold in 2005 for $518,000 and when it was re-listed in 2007 they jacked it up 83%, to $949,000. No go. It expired last month at $659,000.

On Cadena de Montanas in La Paloma, a house sold in April 08 for $760,000 and was re-listed one year later for $895,000. It’s now off the market, hoping for better times, I suppose, & looking for a renter. Get in line.

And last but not least. 
This house on Territory Dr in Sunrise Presidio Village sold in August 07 for $1,000,000. And who could resist with special shots like this in the listing.

But whether or not the buyers realized it, $1,000,000 was, and still is, way high for that subdivision. The highest of highs, by a $$$$ bundle.

But who knew, they must have thought they got a bargain and could flip it for a tidy profit. Because 3 months later they turned around and listed it for $1,300,000.

And a of couple of months ago it expired at $650,000.
Same house, same lot, way different market.
But then again, they didn’t use those cool pictures that got them so turned on.

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the (just under a) million $$ club

6161 N PASEO ZALDIVAR, $995,000 ($245/sf), just 55 days on the market and today it’s under contract.

In an otherwise lackluster high-end market, recently we’ve seen a rash of homes priced at just under a million go to contract, and go quickly.

There’s;

3407 E Via Palomita @ $975,000

4620 N Camino Gacela @ $985,000

6161 N PASEO ZALDIVAR @ $995,000

4790 N Via De La Granja @ $995,000

6271 N Whaleback Pl @ $999,000

just under a million, could it be the new $1,300,000 …

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talk about a fall from grace

5360 N Ventana Overlook Pl was listed today as a foreclosure for $499,900 ($154/sf). It’s a spec home, built in 2007 and has never been occupied. It’s 3245 sf, 1 story, 4 Beds, 3 Baths on just under an acre.

With high hopes it was first listed in January 2008 for $1,075,000 ($329/sf) which, back then and except for one teensy-weensy little problem, might not have seemed too extreme.

Here’s the problem, see what you think

See that red check mark, that’s the house. And that parking lot hovering along it’s north side is a parking lot for a busy restaurant. And that road running alongside it all is Kolb Rd. A busy road.

If nothing else, this is a shining example of the thinking, or lack of, of builders/investors back then when they took for granted that they could build almost anything almost anywhere and it would sell for big bucks.

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Foothills Contemporary with 7 car garage goes to contract

6652 N Avenida De Posada, listed at $1,495,0000 ($336/sf) has gone to contract after 98 days. Built 2006/1.38 acres/4445 sf/4 Beds/5 Baths/
1 story/pool-spa/7 car garage/Built w/steel frame & Rastra block

I know the builder, Dick Rivas, and I know his work. He builds the real thing; solid, quality construction, high-end materials and craftsmanship, and he doesn’t cut corners. And he’s a car nut too.

Congratulations to Dick and Annette.

A real quality built newer contemporary, and with a 7 car garage,  is a very rare beast in these here parts.

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getting back to where it needs to be

On the market for 2+ years and listed for $1,075,000, $995,000 and $799,000, 6347 N Pinnacle Ridge Dr failed to sell.

Then it stumbled into foreclosure and was listed for $690,000 on 11/02/09, and went to contract on 11/17/09 and closed escrow on 12/08/09 for $635,000 ($179/sf). A quick cash sale and a very good deal for the buyer. 

6347 N Pinnacle Ridge Dr is in the Pinnacle Ridge subdivision, aka Paloma Canyon, where there are 4 other homes for sale – priced from $675,000 ($235/sf) to $895,950 ($253/sf) – and 3 of the 4 have been on the market for nearly a year or more. And 3 of the 4 have been reduced- reduced-reduced, but still no sale.

In the last 6 months just one other home has sold and it went for $850,000 ($240/sf), reduced, over time, from $1,075,000 ($304/sf).

Back in the day, when credit was free and easy, homes in Pinnacle Ridge sold like hot dogs at a ball game. And prices skyrocketed.

Because Pinnacle Ridge has a lot going for it. A super convenient central foothills location, it’s a newer gated community built in 2001 to 2004 or so with nicely built AF Sterling homes, district 16 schools and one of those rare places in the foothills where kids are out riding bikes and playing at the end of cul-de-sacs. It’s very popular with families with school age kids. Or it was anyway, until prices rose to the point where young families, the core market, were priced out. And now, when you have to actually qualify for a loan, forget about it.

But this sale, at $635,000 $179/sf, is going to put a big dent in the comps in Pinnacle Ridge and may help pave the way to a return to more affordable prices.  PS- this house last sold in July 2002 for $640,000.

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homes in the high-end pipeline

There are 12 higher-end homes in contract in the Foothills right now. 
Here’s a look at where they were originally listed and where they ended up before going to contract,

Property	List $@ contract	Original List	% change
3407 E Via Palomita	$975,000	$975,000	0
4620 N Cmo Gacela	$985,000	$985,000	0
7063 N Mission Hill *	$1,200,000	$1,395,000	-14%
3250 E Sun Cloud Pl*	$1,200,000	$1,200,000	0
6500 N St Andrews	$1,325,000	$2,100,000	-37%
7021 N Mission Hill	$1,495,000	$1,495,000	0
6460 N Thimble Pass	$1,599,000	$1,997,500	-20%
4790  Via De La Granja	$995,000	$1,750,000	-43%
6271 N Whaleback Pl	$999,000	$1,275,000	-21%
5327 E Mission Hill Dr	$1,000,000	$1,475,000	-32%
4200 N Painted Quail Pl	$1,095,000	$1,950,000	-44%
5831 E Finisterra	$2,900,000	$4,100,000	-29%

(*short sales)
(also, De La Granja & Painted Quail were re-listed with new listing agents before reaching their much reduced prices. All others saw the original agents slogging through umpteen price cuts)

A few observations;
Skyline Country Club had been in a high-end sales funk for a long long time, but with 4 homes now in contract, it looks to be on the comeback trail. And for Cat 10, also with a long dry spell of high-end sales, De La Granja, at least, may be a start.

Obviously many of these homes were hopelessly overpriced for much of the time they were listed. But if you’re a buyer looking for a well priced home, keep in mind, you’re not the only one out there. And when one does come along, you need to be able to recognize it and act on it, or risk losing it.

In almost every case, whether they were listed at the right price right off the bat, or spent months getting to it, once they did, most of these homes went to contract very, very quickly.

And because well priced homes stand out from the crowd of overpriced homes, they should be easy to recognize.

See them here> 12 under contract
**link will expire on 1/4/2010**

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at the right price

$1,195,000, $1,050,000, $995,000, $895,000, $795,000 and 7 days later 6050 N Paseo Valdear in Alta Vista is under contract,
Built 1988/3564 sf/.85 acres/4 Beds/3 Baths/1 story/3 car/pool & spa/$223/sf as listed.

 

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week at a glance 11/30-12/6

Activity for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills

New listings were about half new n’ half relisted old listings.

And you’d think, that with price reductions consistently one of the most active categories, that eventually we’d see some results, like an uptick in New Contracts. But not this week. But of the handful that did go to contract, there were a couple in the very high $9’s and one at $1.495, and all three had had BIG price cuts recently. 

And while the number of homes sold is up from last week and the week before, the highest priced sale was a disappointing $650k.

But as they have in the past, higher priced listings did make a good showing in the expired/withdrawn category. And while some of them have not been re-listed, probably because they’re taking a breather for the holidays, I’m convinced that others are sitting it out due to the sellers frustration with the lack of showings.

But regardless of the reason, expired & withdrawn listings that have not been re-listed are playing a big part in why the inventory of homes for sale is at a very low 443 in the foothills today.

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getting to the right price

In Cat 10, once upon a time 3771 E Sumo Octavo was listed for $2,195,000 and today, after a $100,000  $50,000 cut, it’s now available for $1,500,000 $1,550,000 ($238/sf) ($246/sf).
A day after I posted this, the price changed again, this time going up?  

And I can’t help wondering if the quick contract on 4790 N Via De La Granja, also in Cat 10 – listed for $995,000 ($168/sf), is causing sellers to re-think their asking prices. And if it isn’t, why isn’t it.
De La Granja was also listed up in the clouds, but within days of dropping to $995, it went to contract. And while having to drop to $995 may have been a disappointment to the owners/sellers, they can take some comfort in knowing that not only did they sell, but that theirs will be the highest priced sale in Cat 10 since February 2008. That’s a fact, almost 2 years.

And coincidentally, the house that sold in February 2008, 4331 N Placita Camaleon, expired today after 1 year, asking $2,950,000 ($478/sf).

The owners bought it in February 08 for $2,900,000 and listed it 10 months later for $3,125,000. That would have been quite a coup if they’d pulled it off, but they didn’t. I imagine it will be re-listed soon.

And on a more positive note, in Skyline Country Club, the folks at 7021 N Mission Hill Ln also got to the right price. Listed for a short while last year for $2,495,000, it was re-listed 80 days ago for a range price of $1,495,000 to $1,895,000 ($204/sf @ $1.495). And that did the trick, today it’s in contract. 

And loath to follow the pack, and not that it matters all that much, the owners of 7454 N Secret Canyon Dr upped their price today from $4,350,000 to $4,500,000.

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a contrarian view

I swore we wouldn’t be seeing any of these for a while, but today a fearless builder listed a new ‘to be built’ spec home in the Foothills. To be completed in 2010.

And while that may seem like a crazy thing to do, this home is priced at just $675,000 ($239/sf) – a few hundred thou below any spec I’ve seen in the foothills in years.

So if they can pull it off, and I don’t see how they can, maybe it’s not so crazy – 1 acre mountain view lot/Catalina Foothills Est 2/2828 sf/3 Beds/3 Baths/3 Car/w- top of the line finishes: granite, cherry cabinets, tile floors in all common areas. High efficiency HVAC and upgraded insulation. 

I just wonder how and where a builder is able to get financing for a spec project these days.

more here>4334 N Camino Del Obispo

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looking for something BIG & Cheap

3900 N Camino Blanco may fit the bill. It’s a humungous spec home that’s also a foreclosure and is now available for $1,181,800 or just $120.89/sf.

This is a harsh reality check from the glory days when they were asking $3,400,000. But why anyone would spend good money to build a 9776 sf spec home, seems at best ill considered, but to then plunk it down in the middle of nowheresville off River Rd is mind boggling.

Oh, and if you’re looking for an indoor pool, it has one of those too.

But, at $120/sf,

BIG & Cheap

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dismal November home sales in the Tucson Foothills

Yesterday I mentioned that, so far, 26 home sales had been reported for November, but that we’d probably see a few additional sales dribble in.

It didn’t happen. 26 sold, that’s it.

Average sold price - $444,271

Median sold price - $414,000

average $/sf @ sold - $170.74

Total $$ value of homes sold -  $11,551,050

And of the 26 sold- 18 went for less than $500k, 7 for between $535 & $755 and just 1 for over a million.

how do those numbers compare to,

November 08, 30 sold

Average sold price - $462,527

Median sold price - $407,500

average $/sf @ sold - $177.75

Total $$ value of homes sold -  $13,875,800 

November 07, 44 sold

Average sold price -  $538,985

Median sold price - $487,377

average $/sf @ sold - $203.40

Total $$ value of homes sold - $23,715,329 

November 06, 46 sold

Average sold price -  $700,938

Median sold price -  $566,250

average $/sf @ sold - 241.84

Total $$ value of homes sold - $32,243,164

Fewer sales and lower prices, year after year. A perfectly simple illustration of why you should expect to get less now than you paid then.

UPDATE 12/3- 2 additional sales for November were reported after the deadline. So, a slightly less dismal, 28 sold in November 09.

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more price cuts

In Pima Canyon, 1887 E Desert Garden Dr dropped from $1,395,000 to $1,250,000 ($288/sf). Looking back, it last sold in 2001 for $1,066,000.
So pricewise, this now looks like a contender.

5 sold in PC in the last 6 months – not counting the half-baked spec foreclosure that sold for $803K – average sold = $1,561,000/median = $1,430,000/$/sf = $326.

And as for the 16 for sale, it blows them out of the water.
average list = $2,541,437/median = $2,545,000/$/sf = $458.

And then there’s 3401 E Camino A Los Vientos in Eleven Arches. Today it dropped from $2,500,000 to $2,195,000 ($277/sf), which is 24% off it’s original list of $2,900,000.

No doubt there will need to be many more price cuts before sales of pricey homes begin to really get off the ground.

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if this is a recovery, what would a downturn look like

There are probably at least a few November sales that have yet to be reported, but, barring a deluge of latecomers, home sales in the Foothills may well reach a new low for November.

26 single family homes sold in the foothills this November

vs.

30 sold amidst the turmoil & collapsing markets of November 08,

44 sold in November 07

46 sold in November 06

64 sold in November 05, etc

vs.

47 sold this October

48 in September

49 in August

74 in July

And of the 26 sold- 18 went for less than $500k, 7 for between $535 & $755 and just 1 for over a million.

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