The Catalina Foothills

today, 11/29/2010

3451 E Calle Puerta De Acero, on and off the market since 08 when it started at $2,195,000, then quickly dropped to $1,695,000, dropped again today from $1,375,000 to $1,199,000 ($255/f).

The trouble is that it sold for $1,350,000 in 06 and the new owner then spent a bundle on a complete new kitchen, new concrete floors throughout and more. It’s in La Puerta, a very small and private gated community of maybe 13 or 14 homes, all on 3.3 acres or larger lots, off Hacienda del Sol Rd. I made an offer on this last year for clients of mine, but we weren’t able to strike a deal. Built by Mike Wachs, this is a special house for the right buyer. (listed by Diamond Foothills Properties)

And 3208 E Via Palomita, in La Paloma Estates, cut another $200 thou today.
A very nice house built by John Kline, one of the best in the biz.

It first went to market just before Christmas 08, with visions of sugar-plums dancing…, they listed it for $3.2. But old St Nick didn’t show and they dropped it to $2,795,000 right after the new year. It’s now $1,995,000 ($318/sf).
2006 built/6294 sf/5 Beds/5.5Baths/masonry construction/pool-spa/4 car/some steps. (listed by Lynn Kline Realty, Inc)

And then there’s, The house of many steps,

5106 N Avenida De Castilla, which I’ve mentioned 2 or 3 times –once here,  
truth in advertising - sold today for $549,000, off a $549,000 list price. Though that was off the 2007 $1,199,000 original list. This house has steps from every room to every other room. But other than that, it’s a helluva lot of house for the money. (listed by Long Realty)

And 5922 N Vista Valverde, a classic and pristine old foothills burnt adobe charmer closed today for $670,000 ($212/sf) off a $749,000 list price, reduced from $799,000 when it was first listed in April. The listing described it as > Exceptional burnt adobe Territorial in Old Foothills imbued w/natural SW character,updated'04. Ideal secluded location … (listed by Jack Goretcki)

 
I couldn’t agree more.

That’s it. Stay warm.

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round and round she goes …

Listed about a year ago for $1,249,000, then $1,199,000 > $1,080,000 > $999,999 > $975,000 > $950,000 > $899,000 > $875,000 > $850,000 and now $799,900.
Ask yourself, why would buyers take your price seriously when, obviously, you don’t.

And really, does it make a bit of difference whether your house is listed at $999,999 or at $975,000 or even at $950,000. What a waste, making these useless little cuts that, not only could anyone care less about but, as a seller, I think you’re perceived as out of touch. To put it nicely.

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a good sign

As I was making my way through the old foothills this afternoon I stopped in at an open house that a buddy of mine was holding. And to my surprise, and delight, there was a steady stream of visitors, I mean non-stop, from about 1:30 to when I left at 3:45.

If you’re an agent who held an open house today, or if you attended an open house, it would be nice to hear how how it went.

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see if this sounds like a good deal

Built in 2009, never lived in, mint condition, masonry construction, 6924 sf, 
3 bedrooms/6 baths + office/den in main house + 1 bedroom/1 bath guest house, 1.9 acres, pool/spa, complete outdoor kitchen, gorgeous mountain views, with top quality craftsmanship, materials, fixtures and appliances – clay tile roof, wolf, subzero, roman stone & bamboo floors, flagstone patios – completed Dec 09. This place is gorgeous, and what a setting. For $2,120,145 ($306/sf). A foreclosure, the first in the  Canyons, (listed by Toma Partners)  7454 N Secret Canyon Tucson, AZ 85718

There are 6 other homes for sale in the Canyons, asking – $1,990,000, $2,995,000, $3,490,000, $3,490,000, $4,200,000 and $5,500,000, at an average $596/sf.

And going back to 2001, the last 7 homes that sold through the MLS, sold for $2,100,000, $2,200,000, $2,500,000, $2,600,000, $2,700,000, $2,750,00, $3,200,000 and $3,800,000, at an average of $463/sf at sold price.

On the downside, there hasn’t been a sale in the Canyons since July 2008. But hey, if they were selling like hot cakes up there this house would be ancient history and at a lot more than $2.1.

PS- prior to completion, it was listed in March 09 for $5,000,000 then, reluctantly, $4,750,000, then, grudgingly, $4,500,000 and $4,250,000.
It took a year to go from $5.0 to $4.250, then just 8 months from $4.250 to when
mr. lender stepped in at $2.1. 

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October strikes again

I borrowed this nice chart from an article titled - Prices of foreclosed homes continue to plunge  from Inside Tucson Business It shows building permit activity/month for the Tucson metro area for the last 13 months.

As with every other measure of real estate activity that we’ve looked at for the month of October, building permits for new single family homes were also way down in October. How way down? the 62 building permits issued in October for new single-family homes were the fewest permits issued for the month going back 20 years. So way way down. This is for the entire metro area and not just the foothills. But still.

Is there a silver lining here, like maybe October turns out to be the bottom of the market that we’ve been searching for. nah, I don’t really believe that but I’d like to hear from anyone who does. And from anyone who doesn’t.

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what’s happening in Ventana Canyon Estates

For sale since last September when it was listed for $1,350,000, 6446 N Desert Wind Circle was just reduced from $959,000 to $850,000. (listed by Long Realty)

What else is happening in Ventana Canyon Estates

At the moment there are 12 single family homes for sale - 6 are priced from $799,000 to $995,000 and 6 from $1,199,000 to $1,999,900.

but no homes have sold in there in the last 6 months

and there are no homes under contract at the moment either

So nothing’s happening.

12 for sale in Ventana Canyon Estates

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on a collision course

As we enter our high season for home sales here in the Tucson Foothills more homes are listed for sale everyday. We’re now up to 496 single family homes for sale. But at the same time fewer homes are selling. Just 32 homes sold in the foothills in October. While just a few months ago there were 436 homes for sale and 52 homes sold. And that was in August.

So vs August, inventory is up 13.7% and sales are down 38%. And August was August, you know, 102 in the shade and nothing moving.

Also worth noting, we started this year with 399 homes for sale. That was in January. So now with 496 for sale, and growing, barring a miracle it looks as if we’ll be kicking off this coming new year with more than 500 homes for sale. At a minimum, 25% more than we started with this year.

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getting back to normal

You may have heard that my GMail account was hacked yesterday. The hacker sent out a couple of hundred scam mails to people in my contact file asking them to send me money. The scam was that I’d lost my wallet and passport and was stranded in London with no means to get home and not even two pence to rub together to get a bag of fish n’chips.  see> I’ve been HACKED

The response was overwhelming. From the crack of dawn to late into the night I got emails, text messages and phone calls from friends, family, colleagues and clients  from all over the country, and the world, checking to see that I was OK and not, in fact, stranded in London. Everyone was pretty sure it was a scam, but they wanted to know for sure sure. So aside from the inconvenience for them and for me, I heard from a lot of people I hadn’t been in touch with in years and got to talk with a lot of old friends. And it turned out to be a very nice day after all.

Happy Thanksgiving

Black Friday sale on Wednesday

The Pima Canyon foreclosure on 7827 N Ancient Indian Drive – you know, the one that was listed about one year ago for $3,750,000, then $3,495,000 and so on, yes that one. And then, having failed to sell, it was listed as a foreclosure this past July for $1,855,000, well today it was reduced from $1,490,000 to $1,216,000 ($183/sf).

There’s some work to be done in there-  some damage & missing parts here and there -  but at this price I think they’ve taken that into consideration.

7827 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718

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a new low for October

The front page of The New York Times Business section reports
U.S. Home Sales Fell Sharply in October

By DAVID STREITFELD
Published: November 23, 2010

Over the last few years, buyers have been lured into the troubled housing market by two unusual opportunities: cash subsidies in the form of government tax credits, and rock-bottom prices on millions of foreclosed homes.

The tax credits are now history. And the supply of foreclosed homes on the market is already falling as regulators, lawmakers and state law enforcement officials press to sharply reduce the number of foreclosures.

Now, buyers and sellers are getting an early taste of what the real estate market might look like without those twin pillars of support: sales of existing homes plunged 26 percent in October compared with the same period last year, theNational Association of Realtors said in a report Tuesday.

Read all about it > U.S. Home Sales Fell Sharply in October
___________________________________________________________

That scenario is very much in keeping with what we saw in October home sales here in the Tucson Foothills.

I reported and commented on October sales here > October home sales in the Tucson Foothills and, the title aside, here> what happened in March 
And, so far, it doesn’t look as if November is going to save the day.

But, also, consider the advice of Bill F. Browder – who made gazillions investing in Russian companies that were trading at sharp discounts -  offered during a speech he was giving at Columbia Business School. 
 As for the new Russia, Mr. Browder said there would never be another investing opportunity like the previous one in Russia, where investors had the chance to increase their money thirtyfold. But in the high-inflation scene he is painting for the developed world, he says he thinks there could be another lucrative opportunity for Columbia Business School students much closer to home.

“If I were finishing business school right now, I would become an expert as quickly as I could on the U.S. residential real estate market,” which is 50 percent off of its peak and will become an inflation hedge as the United States and others start printing money, he says.

That, from a NYTimes article - From Russia Expert, a Gloomy Outlook

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today

not a big day for Tucson Foothills real estate but then what can you expect right before Thanksgiving,

In Cat 10, 5141 N Camino Sumo was listed about 2 years ago for $1,349,000 and finally sold today for $925,000 ($215/sf) (listed by Long Realty)

On the other hand, 6394 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive sold about 18 months ago for $928,500 and was listed today for $850,000 (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty)

and the big news of the day and also in Cat 10 - 4341 N Placita Camaleon is in contract again. Originally listed one year ago for $2,490,000, and reduced and reduced, it went to contract today listed at $1,890,000 ($287/sf). It also went to contract in early October in a deal where I represented the buyers, but that didn’t work out.
(Listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

In Finisterra 6851 N Vista Del Pueblo, originally listed in January for $1,795,000 is now down to $1,495,000 (listed by Long Realty)

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I’ve been HACKED

Some cretin hacked into my GMail account last night and got hold of a bunch of names and email addresses and is sending out SCAM emails to friends, family and clients.

The subject of the scam mail is EMERGENCY and it goes something like this or a variation of;

I really don't mean to inconvenience you right now but I made a quick trip to the UK and I lost a bag which contains my passport and credit cards. I know this may sound odd, but it all happened very fast. I've been to the US embassy and they're willing to help me fly without my passport but I just have to pay for my ticket and settle some bills. Right now I'm out of cash plus i can't access my bank without my credit card over here. I have contacted them but they need more verification. I'm just gonna have to plead with you to lend me some funds right now? I'll pay back as soon as I get home. I need to get on the next available flight home.

Please reply as soon as you get this message so I can forward the details as to where to send the funds. You can reach me via the hotel's desk phone if you can, the numbers are,  011447024065511 or 011447024064567 You can also email me via my yahoomail, as I can easily access it here …

______________________________________________________________________________

It’s a SCAM, please IGNORE IT. And I apologize for the inconvenience.
Meanwhile my GMail account> [email protected]  has been frozen, so no email, no nothing.

However, you can reach me at > johnschneiders@hotmail.com

 

a very sweet Joesler went to contract today

5402 N Camino Real, listed at $650,000 ($243/sf) – down from a high of $799 when it hit the market in March – found that special buyer today. Congratulations to all.
(Listed by Long Realty)

While there are a few other homes in the foothills advertised as Joesler-esque, Joesler-like or Joesler styled, this is the real thing. One of just three Joeslers,
you know, those actually designed by Josias Joesler, for sale in the foothills.

See it here> 5402 N Camino Real Tucson, AZ 85718

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what’s the latest on short sales and foreclosures

It’s certainly true that I’ve devoted more space lately to reporting on the doings of distress sales in the foothills. So is that because there’s been an increase in activity in distress sales, or is it because, for some reason, I’m just devoting more space to them. 
Let’s see.

Here’s the short sale & foreclosure activity for the last 30 days in the Tucson Foothills;
5 short sales sold for an average/median of $505,800/$300,000
7 foreclosures sold for an average of $492,986/$385,000

And in the same 30 day period ONE YEAR AGO;
5 short sales sold for an average of $277,600/$262,000
8 foreclosures sold for an average of $445,109/$355,000

aha, so no real change in the number of sales, but sold prices have sure shot up. Why?, because more higher priced homes are ending up in short sale & foreclosure. And, therefore, because in general I devote more space to reporting on the upper end of the market than the lower, I’m now devoting more space to distress sales.

And distress sales continue to be very popular with buyers. 
In the last 30 days, while short sales & foreclosure accounted for approximately 10% of the single family homes available for sale in the foothills, they accounted for
31% of the homes sold.

So while normal home sales are down, distress sales are doing just fine, and as a result they are grabbing a larger share of sales. And that’s even with all the negative press they’ve gotten recently on top of the freezing of foreclosure sales by certain lenders. What does that tell you.

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prices are definitely not going up

Up in Sin Vacas 2611 E Calle Sin Desengano  dropped another $30 thou today.
Now at $739,000, a long way from the $1,150,000 pipe dream price it started at in April of 09. (Listed by Long Realty)

And a nice price cut for 5535 N Calle La Cima - from $990,000 to $900,000.
La Cima started in late August at $1,050,000 but, also worth noting, two years ago the current owners picked it up as a short sale for $783,500. That’s after it had been listed as high as $1,500,000 and went nowhere. (Listed by Long Realty)

And the bargain of the week, 5905 N Camino Escalante, listed on October 12th - 
I can’t believe it’s still for sale - but it is. It’s a foreclosure and it appears that mr. lender wants it off his books pronto. They just dropped it from $950,000, which was a screaming deal, to $830,000, which is grand theft - that is, if this authentic adobe style is your thing. $830,000 puts this beautifully built, 2007 adobe home at $173/sf.
 (listed by Win 3 Realty)

For more on this house read> these people want to sell (Jan 2010), its back, and its cheaper than ever (June 2010) and,  the real deal (October 2010)

See all three > reduced, reduced, reduced

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if you’ve got skin in the game

you might me interested to know that there hasn’t been a contract on a million dollar+ home in the Foothills since November 1st,

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some people are just lucky I guess

6741 N Altos Primero, listed for $675,000 and on the market just 4 days, is already in contract. (listed by Rincon Valley Realty)

 

6741 N Altos Primero Tucson, AZ 85718

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the bigger they are …

3900 N Camino Blanco - a nearly 10,000 sf, 2007 built spec home with an indoor pool - once listed for $3,400,000 has sold today for $710,000 as a foreclosure. 
That’s $73/sf, including the 2.6 acre lot that it sits on. Cheap, for sure. But does that make it a good deal. I don’t think so, I think it’s a headache in the making.

The last time I saw Camino Blanco it looked like the new owner would be spending a few bucks fixing it up. Not that it was abused, it wasn’t. But after just three years some of the materials that were used to build it were already showing signs of excessive wear and tear and starting to break down. It’s big, you can say that for it.

3900 N Camino Blanco Tucson, AZ 85718

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short sale in the summit at finger rock

After holding out at $1,749,000 since it was listed in April, 4332 E Playa De Coronado dropped a big $500 thou today to $1,249,000 ($264/sf)

4332 E Playa De Coronado Tucson, AZ 85718

Two homes sold in the Summit in the last 6 months – a foreclosure that sold for $574,900 ($206/sf) and a normal sale that went for $993,500 ($307/sf).

And aside from Playa De Coronado there’s one other for sale at $1,099,000 ($305/sf)

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another foreclosure snapped up

Listed on November 8th, 3505 E Windy Point Dr – the $599,900 super-duper foreclosure deal up in Foothills II -  not surprisingly, went to contract in less than a week.

I mentioned it when it was listed > Holy Smokes Batman, have you seen the new listing on Windy Point Drive and I also mentioned it last year when they did a ‘LIMITED TIME OFFER!! > in the million $$ arena . But no one took the bait and instead mr lender soon reared his ugly head. But on this one I think mr. lender actually left some money on the table. If I were him I’d have priced it at $750,000, and I’m pretty sure I’d have gotten offers close to it or better.

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you’ve got to wonder

In 2005, 5231 N Foothills Drive was listed for $450,000 as a fixer-upper -
Cat #7 fixer upper sold as-is'' - and it went to contract in 5 days and sold for list price.

And six months later, in 2006, it was again listed for sale, this time for $750,000 – HOLY COW $750,000. And this time it was described as - Beautiful foothills home on foothills drive! Remodeled with care. New kitchen, baths, doors, plumbing, electrical, etc.  But oddly enough, there was not a single picture in the listing of the carefully remodeled kitchen, baths or doors. hmmm, I wonder why.

In any case it didn’t sell. And it was off the market for 3 years until it was
re-re-listed in late 2009, this time for $350,000 as a short sale. Yes, 3-5-0, down from 7-5-0. Go figure. And yet again it was described as - Nice remodeled house on large lot with panoramic views of Tucson's west side and the Tucson Mtns. This home has been remodeled tastefully. But still there were no pictures of all the tastefully remodeled stuff. Not a one. And here’s where I really get confused. In the agent remarks it said – ‘this home needs a CASH buyer as it is unfinished and unfinancable’. aha, but wait a minute, I thought it was tastefully remodeled, blah blah blah. And again it didn’t sell.

5321 N Foothills Drive was re-re-re-listed again this past July, this time for $334,650 as a foreclosure, and it sold today for $331,000 - Sold ‘AS-IS’, NO WARRANTIES, NO CLUE, NO SPDS.

The End.

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what happened in March

The chart below is nice little snapshot of sales activity for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills from Jan 1 through October 31. What we’re seeing here is average list & sold prices (pale blue & black lines) and sales volume/month - that is the total dollar amount of homes sold/month (the columns).

And it’s all pretty hum-drum, chugging along stuff, and then there’s March.
What happened in March? Why did $40,000,000 worth of homes sell in March, while sales for the next highest month were just $27,000,000. And why were sales so slow in October? I don’t know, do you. And why did sale prices peak in February and then drop like a stone. Aren’t you glad you came here looking for answers.

And while we’re at it, where will the market be 6 months from now??

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they missed the boat

Purchased in 2003 for $535,000 the new owners of 4275 E La Paloma Drive did a very high quality top to bottom renovation - everything new and all of it very well done. 
It went from this

to this

and this

to this

all through the house

And then in July 07 they put it on the market for $1,200,000. A MILLION TWO

Well it was a great renovation, but it didn’t turn it into a million two house.
So when no one went for it they reduced it and reduced it, chasing the falling market, meanwhile it got about as stale as a listing can get. I showed it two or three times last year, after it had already been on for two years, and by then there were few buyers around and the few that were weren’t interested in it at $985,000.

The owners finally threw in the towel this September and listed it for $789,000.
That did it. It went to contract 2 days later, but fell out and went to contract again a week after that. And it sold yesterday for $720,000. (Listed by Long Realty)
When it was listed in September I’d mentioned it here> a super-duper deal

4275 E La Paloma Tucson, AZ 85718

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just the numbers

Right now in the Tucson Foothills there are 83 single family homes in contract and 495 for sale.

at $0 to $599,999
there are 64 in contract with 278 for sale = 23% in contract

at $600,000 to $999,999
there are 15 in contract and 122 for sale = 12% in contract

at $1,000,000 and up
there are 4 in contract and 95 for sale = 4% in contract

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Short Sale Sold

7051 E EAGLE POINT Drive sold as a short sale the other day for $1,350,000 ($298/sf) off a $1,495,000 list price – while the online records show an outstanding mortgage of $1,830,000.

It’s also noteworthy that of the 13 homes sold in the Mountain Estates since
January 1, 2006, that EAGLEPOINT is the lowest sale price and also the lowest
$$/sf sale price in there.  And, I believe, the first short sale or foreclosure.

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speaking of massive discounts

Once upon a time 7827 N Ancient Indian Drive was listed for $3,750,0000.  But since no one found it irresistible at that price, it was reduced and reduced again until
mr. lender reared his ugly head and foreclosed on Ancient Indian. Whereupon it was listed for $1,855,000 in July – imagine, almost 2 million less than where it started 
– and still no bites – so today it’s down to $1,490,000. ($224/sf) (Listed by Win3 Realty)

Until things turn around, and who knows when that will be, prices for million dollar+ homes that are not selling, and very few are, have nowhere to go but down.

7827 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718

Also in Pima Canyon, and right up the road apiece, 1852 E Sahuaro Blossom Place cut another $150 thou bringing it to $2,100,000. That’s down $650,000 from where it started back in April 09. (Listed by Long Realty)

1852 E Sahuaro Blossom Place , Tucson, AZ 85718

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$600,000 is the new $1 million

According to CNNMoney.com Million-dollar homes are the most affordable they've been in years.

Read all about it > Million-dollar homes: Massive discounts

Looking through the homes featured in this article, it’s no contest that we can match or beat their so-called ‘massive discounted prices’ right here in the Foothills.

And here’s another piece from CNNMoney.com about million dollar homes that have been on the market for months.

On the market for months and already they’re complaining, what whiners.  
Months, big deal, we’ve got homes that have been on the market for years, that are still playing hard-to-get.

read all about it > Million-dollar misses

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slow real estate market, says who

7128 N Finger Rock Place went from listing to contract in 8 days flat. It was listed for $749,000 on 11/3 and is reported under contract today. It was built in 1980/3815 sf/
3 Beds/3Baths/.83 acres/with pool/2 story/2 car/$749,000 - $196/sf in Foothills ll.
(Listed by Long Realty) 7128 N Finger Rock Place, Tucson, AZ 85718

And you don’t run into this too often, but the sellers are the original owners.
Imagine, they bought it new in 1980. So having managed to avoid the booms and busts and craziness of the market for all these years they were probably girding themselves for a very rough ride their first time out. Ha-ha-ha, smooth as silk. Congratulations! I hope it sails through.

I didn’t get around to seeing it so I can’t really compare them, but it’s also  interesting that it was chosen over the foreclosure that was listed in there the other day. I wrote about it here > Holy Smokes Batman, have you seen the new listing on Windy Point Drive < which compares quite well, on paper anyway, to this Finger Rock house. Built 1997/3437 sf/4 Beds/3 Baths/1 acre/with pool/2 story/3 car/$599,900 - $176/sf, also in Foothills ll. (Listed by JM Realty)

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it’s a really tough market out there

You’d think if you’d paid $1,399,500 for a home in the foothills in 2004 and then you listed that very same house this past June for $990,500, 29% off, right off the top, that it would fly out the door.

You’d think that. But that’s not what happened.
In 2004 - 6019 N Pinchot Road went to contract in 8 days and sold for $1,399,500 off a $1,400,000 list price.

And when the owners decided to sell it this past June, they cut to the chase and listed it for $990,500, as a short sale – figuring, I’m sure, that it would sell quickly. But it sat for 4 months before a buyer came along. That happened just yesterday. 

Another one that I was involved in - that must remain anonymous because I represented a buyer who made an offer for it – it sold for right around $1.8 in 2001, and then the current owner/sellers paid almost $2.6 for it in 2007. And now, wanting to sell it and understanding they would have to discount it heavily to do so, they listed it for less than $1.8  some months ago – a 29% discount from what they paid in 07 and almost exactly what it sold for in 2001 - and you know what, 3 months later and it’s still for sale.

I’m guessing that both these owner/sellers are very unpleasantly surprised by the turn of events. That even after taking such a big loss right off the top, that it’s still tough to move these homes.

There are others like this and many others that have reduced their prices 20 & 30% and more, and are pulling their hair out by now, but still they haven’t sold.

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supply & demand

In economic theory, the relation between supply and demand determines the price of a commodity. This relationship is thought to be the driving force in a free market. As demand for an item increases, prices rise. When manufacturers respond to the price increase by producing a larger supply of that item, this increases competition and drives the price down.

Keeping that in mind, let’s have a look at supply & demand for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills. Currently, there are 483 single family homes for sale, and 123 homes sold during the past 90 days, resulting in an overall 11 month supply(MOI – months of inventory) of homes for sale. 

Here’s what that supply & demand looks like when it’s broken down by price range;
(# currently for sale &  # sold in last 90 days)

Price	# For Sale	# Sold	MOI
$0 - $299,999	68	31	6.5
$300,000 – $599,000	202	61	10
$600,000 – $999,999	121	26	14
$1.0 – $1.499	44	8	16.5
$1.5 – $1.999	22	2	33
$2.0 – $2.999	16	1	48
$3.0 & up	10	0	??

(MOI = months of inventory, is how long it would take to sell the current supply at the current rate of sales. A 6 month supply of  homes for sale is considered to be  a normal or balanced market.
When there is less than a 6 months supply it is a sellers market, whereas, when the supply increases to more than 6 months it becomes a buyers market which, theoretically, leads to lower prices)

So we have a normal, or balanced, market at $0 – $299,999. 

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the market goes up, the market goes down

5261 N Calle Oreo sold for $585,000 in 2001, then for $740,000 in 2005 and for $825,000 in 2006. And in July 2010 it was listed for $775,000, and was reduced and reduced, and is available today for $624,900.  5261 N Calle Oreo , Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

6325 N Pinnacle Ridge sold for $1,100,000 in 2006, was listed for $949,000 in September 2010 and can now be yours for $899,999. (Listed by Freedom Realty)
6325 N Pinnacle Ridge , Tucson, AZ 85718

5920 N Via Serena sold for $1,300,000 in 2004 and was listed for $1,500,000 in June 2010 and has now been reduced to  $1,200,000. (Listed by Long Realty)
5920 N Via Serena , Tucson, AZ 85750

and try as you might you can’t beat it,

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Holy Smokes Batman, have you seen the new listing on Windy Point Drive

Good golly Robin, surely you don’t mean 3505 E Windy Point Drive.  Yes, that’s the one, it was listed today for $599,900 Pow!   just $175/sf.
Holy Cow , it left the market in May asking $945,000, and that’s after being reduced, and reduced again, from $1,550,000, where it started in October 07.

Welcome to foreclosureland kimosabe > 3505 E Windy Point Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 < this is distress sale # 3, I think, for Foothills II.

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sticking to their guns

Since November 1st, 39 homes listed for sale in the Tucson Foothills have had price cuts. But just 2 of them were for homes listed at a $million or more. Just 2. 

You know if jumbo mortgages do become more available  (see my post earlier today) there’s an opportunity there for everyone to make some sales. But homes still have to be priced right, first to get buyers attention and then to make it through the very tight and demanding hurdles of the lenders appraisal.

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VA Home Loans

With Veterans Day coming  up, Brandon Fisher from the VA Benefit Blog.com
put together some information on VA home loans that he asked me to post.

The VA Home Loan
Brandon Fischer

As conventional loans become increasingly difficult to obtain, many veterans are finding themselves being denied the dream of homeownership. However, the VA loan program, in spite of the mortgage crisis, remains one of the most progressive and flexible lending programs available to veterans.  Since 1944, the VA Loan has helped more than 18 million veterans and active duty service members achieve homeownership and continues to do so today, providing high quality benefits that save borrowers money while enhancing the quality of their lives.

Why Should Veterans Choose a VA Loan

The VA home loan program was designed specifically for veterans.  To honor a veterans time of service, the Department of Veterans Affairs guarantees part of each VA loan. This VA guarantee allows VA-lenders to provide borrowers with the flexible loan terms and benefits they wouldn't be able to find with a conventional home loan.

VA loans also have high loan limits, which is highly beneficial for veterans in the state of Arizona where the average cost of a home is $150,000. Eligible VA borrowers can secure loans up to $417,000 in most areas of the United States, and loans of up to $1,094,625 for those wishing to purchase in more expensive real estate areas. In addition to providing flexible loan terms, competitive interest rates, and high loan limits, VA home loans benefits also include:

• zero down payment
• higher debt-to-income ratios permitted
• no mortgage insurance requirement
• regulated closing costs

Which Veterans Qualify for a VA Loan?

The VA home loan program has no income or credit requirements allowing nearly all veterans the opportunity to obtain a VA home loan. In fact, the program is so dedicated to providing military personnel with a home loan that 80% of those who qualify for a VA loan would not have been able to secure a conventional loan.  To begin the VA home loan application process, veterans and all other military members must meet one of the following initial requirements:

• Served 181 days on active duty or 3 months during war time
• Served 6 years in the National Guard or Reserves
• Be the spouse of a service member killed in action

Veterans and active duty service members who meet the initial guidelines must also present a Certificate of Eligibility. If potential borrowers do not have their Certificate of Eligibility, a VA-approved lender should be able to aid borrowers in obtaining their COE.

Although the VA home loan program has no credit requirements, most VA-approved lenders will require a credit score of at least 620 to secure financing.

 

The jumbo mortgage market is starting to loosen up

There is no doubt that the lack of availability of jumbo mortgages over the last few years has put a big crimp in high-end home sales in the Tucson Foothills. 
But now, according to an article in today’s WSJ.com, relief may be in sight. If so, it is very welcome news and it will have a positive effect on high-end home sales in the Foothills. And just in time for the winter selling season too. He said, with fingers crossed.

Read all about it > The Jumbo-Mortgage Comeback

From WSJ.com
Banks are starting to make "jumbo" mortgages again.

When the credit crisis hit more than two years ago, many banks cut back or stopped making loans for more-expensive homes. Now, smaller and regional lenders are issuing more new jumbo loans and doing more refinancings—as are some big banks that never stopped making them. If the trend continues, it could help bolster home sales in some wealthier areas.

Real-estate professionals in areas that haven't been greatly affected by foreclosures say the somewhat improved availability of jumbo mortgages is helping revive sales of expensive homes.

"The jumbo market is starting to loosen up," says Candace Adams, president of Prudential Connecticut Realty, who says she noticed the change only in the past 60 days.

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this week

Since Monday 11/1 we’ve had;

23 new listings + 4 re-listed old listings that, nevertheless, show up as new listings.
So why quibble, let’s call it 27 new listings. They’re priced from $250,000 to $1,975,000 – with a $729,911/$625,000 average/median list price

34 homes had price reductions – and not one had a price increase – further proof,
if there was any doubt, that prices are not going up

8 homes went to contract – priced $307,500 to $1,275,000 – average/median list price of the 8 is $551,756/$446,950. The 3 highest priced of that group were $985,000 ( on the market since September 08 when it was listed for $1.349) then - $1,195,000 (on the market just 100 days) and $1,275,000 (on the market 146 days & reduced from $1.399)

12 closed escrow, $240,000 to $845,000. Average/median sold price of that group is $498,858/$548,000.

12 advanced from the Active Contingent status to Pending – indicating that all was clear to close escrow in the near future.  They’re priced from $264,000 to $600,000 – average/median - $410,900/$359,350

So not a bad week, but no game changers there either, just more of the same. 
New listings continue to  far outstrip, in price, those going to contract & selling.  

Looking for good news, there’s this, listings at a $million or more are at a new low for recent years – 93 for sale – down from a high of about 145.  And in the last 3 months 8 homes sold for a $million or more. And if you count the homes that were listed at a $million or more & sold at any price (including below a $million) you have 11 sold. So while that market is not dead, even using the more generous 11 sold figure, we’re still at a 2+ year supply of homes at a $million and up. And 85% of that action is between $1.0 & $1.5, leaving the 48 homes listed above $1.5 swinging in the  breeze.

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a new low

6924 E Gate Ridge Pl
was listed in June 2008 for $1,600,000 and sold today for $775,000 -
as a foreclosure

In February 09 I wrote about the pricing of Gate Ridge Pl > keeping up with the  Jones’s …

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offers that go nowhere

I don’t if this has happened to you, but in the last few months I’ve had a rash of offers that I presented on behalf of my clients, that ended up going nowhere. 
And every one was for a home in the Foothills priced at well over $1,500,000 –
a category that is not exactly flying off the shelf. And 3 of the 4 were cash offers and the 4th was very securely financed.  So all, potentially, very solid deals. But they went nowhere because the buyers and sellers could not agree on price.

Now you might look at that and say, as some have, that it’s because our offers were just too low. Or maybe they were even low-ball offers. But they weren’t, not in my book anyway.  One of them was for 93% of the original list price.  And for another, that had initially gone nowhere, a couple of months later the sellers had a change of heart and decided to take our original offer. So we did end up striking a deal. Nevertheless, initially and for two months after, they pooh-poohed a very good offer. And a third home left the market shortly after our deal went bust and was offered as a rental, and rented. What does that tell you.

And also, in all four cases our offers were the best offers they’d ever gotten for those homes. And two of them, I know for sure, were the only offers they’d ever gotten.  And three of the houses had been on the market for more than 18 months. So, lowball offers, come on, who’s kidding who. Low-ball by whose measure.

And to top it off, all those homes are still for sale.  So it’s a pretty safe bet that they’re still holding out for a better offer. While one thing is for sure, prices are not going up. So day by day they become less, not more, attractive.

Meanwhile, the great majority of high-end buyers in this market, that is, what buyers are left in this market, do not need to buy another home. They do not.
Most are discretionary purchases by buyers who have waited patiently for the right house at the right price. They are not going to overpay for something they don’t need.  And since this overpriced market has droned on for so long, many of them are now losing, or have already lost, their enthusiasm for and interest in buying a home in the Foothills. And who can blame them.

So they’ll just go on about their business and see what happens. 
But I fear that many of them have thrown in the towel and moved on, to other pursuits and greener pastures. Listen, you hear that, it’s the sound of the other shoe dropping.

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October home sales in the Tucson Foothills

Here’s a look at sales and prices for this October vs past Octobers.

October	# Sold	Avg Sold	Med Sold	Avg$/sf	@$1.0 +
2010	30	$491,197	$430,000	$165	1
2009	50	$534,928	$455,438	$182	1
2008	40	$691,516	$572,500	$207	6
2007	37	$666,163	$525,000	$219	5
2006	55	$828,199	$720,000	$256	13
2005	51	$610,548	$525,000	$224	3
2004	81	$463,008	$402,000	$173	3
2003	79	$438,591	$359,500	$154	2

Fewer homes sold this October, and they sold for less money,  than in every October going back to 2005. And though prices are up vs. October 03 and 04,
sales are way, way down. And  how can prices recover when sales are down.

And sales are also down from the 42 homes sold in September, but prices, surprisingly,  are up vs September’s > $463,250/$360,500 average/median.

And they’re a mixed bag from August’s prices
August – 51 sold -  $509,541/$380,000 average/median

but up from prices in July, June and May, but not April
July – 53 sold -  $490,823/$416,000
June – 57 sold - $482,010/$415,000
May – 59 sold - $467,971/$383,000
April – 57 sold - $514,083/$425,000

and again, a mixed bag with March, though look how many homes sold in March,
March – 71 sold - $558,571/$400,000

So who  knows where things are headed, I certainly don’t. Do you.

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one more reason why buyers ignore list prices

4023 N Ocotillo Canyon was a range-priced listing - Seller will accept or counter offers between 590K-630K …

yet it sold today for $570,000

For more on the reality of range pricing, see> does range pricing work <

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high hopes

4420 N Alvernon Way was listed on September 14th 2008 - imagine, listing on 9/14/08 - for $725,000 and sold today for $299,000. (listed by Long Realty)

Their poor timing aside, being that off target, is it any wonder that buyers make
those much maligned low ball offers

4420 N Alvernon Way , Tucson, AZ 85718

And not quite in the same league, but not inspiring much confidence either,
3436 E Placita De La Jolla Del Sol – listed this past April at $800,000,  sold today for $610,000. (listed by Long Realty)

**both of them were reduced, and reduced again,  prior to going to contract and selling**

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in Cat 10

4525 N De La Granja last sold in 2006 for $1,200,000 – then it had a complete and very high quality custom renovation, top to bottom – and was listed in mid June for $1,399,000, reduced to $1,275,000 in late September and finally went to contract today for an undisclosed sum. The buyers got a very good house on a classic Cat 10 lot at, at least, a good price, and maybe at a really good price. We’ll see.

it went from this

to this

 

and from this

to this

and like that, all through the house

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today, November 1st

6340 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718, on the market since Feb 09 when it started at $839,900, sold today for $610,000 ($196/sf) off a much reduced $620,000 list.   But they paid $430,191 in 01, so they did just fine. The problem was they expected way more from the market than the market was willing to give. (listed by Long Realty)

And 6100 N Camino Arturo , Tucson, AZ 85718, in Shadow Hills, which last sold in 05 for $830,000 and, in a token gesture to the real estate bust, was listed for $825,000 in 09, sold today for $600,000 ($141/sf) (listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br)

5535 N Calle La Cima , Tucson, AZ 85718, which sold for $783,500 in 08 as a short sale, and was listed for $1,050,000 two months ago, was reduced to $990,000 ($217/sf) (listed by Long Realty)

And A CONTRACT in Alta Vista. 6480 N Via Del Emigrado Tucson, AZ 85750, listed just 3 months ago went to contract today at $1,195,000 list ($329/sf)
Emigrado last sold in September 08 for $1,275,000. (listed by Long Realty)

And in Ventana Canyon Estates, 6450 N Desert Wind Circle  is new on the market for $969,000 ($257/sf). Desert Wind last sold in 06 for $1,122,500. (listed by Long Realty)

It’s by no means across the board, but it is encouraging to see that more and more sellers are facing the market for what it is and putting aside, at least to some degree, what they paid for their house or what they have in it.

Earlier today I mentioned 2530 E Calle Sin Pecado, sold for $839,000 in 06 and listed today for $569,000. And the truth is, those who refuse to face the market for what it is, and list accordingly, are going nowhere and just delaying the pain.

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Looking for something really charming & special?

2138 E Camino El Ganado is now on the market for $699,900 ($250/sf)
El Ganado is the house I was referring to in the WANTED post I did about 10 days ago, where I said “… I believe that once it hits the MLS it won’t last 5 days”

start the clock and let’s see,

> 2138 E Camino El Ganado Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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they get it

Sold for $839,000 in 2006, 2530 E Calle Sin Pecado is listed today for $569,000,
32% less than the 06 sale

See it in Sin Vacas > 2530 E Calle Sin Pecado Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty) 

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