The Catalina Foothills

In the News

Confused about where the real estate market is headed. You're not alone, everyone is. And while the following articles won't sort it all out they may at least offer some food for thought while showing the wide range of opinions among the experts.

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From Bloomberg

By Conor Sen

February 14, 2023 at 4:00 AM MST

Higher Mortgage Rates Is What the Housing Market Needs Now

Homebuyers are more resilient than expected. Costs will have to rise again to choke off demand and bring inflation down to the Fed’s target.

The surprise of January was how strong the economy started off the year — particularly the housing market. All it seemed to take for buyers to come flocking back  was for 30-year-mortgage rates to ease to near 6% after reaching as high as 7.25% in October.

Mortgage purchase applications are rising again. The glut of existing homes we expected as the market slowed last year never materialized. Homebuilders’ stocks have surged. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now believes home prices will fall by 6% from the peak, rather than its previous forecasted of a 10% decline. The housing analytics firm CoreLogic is even predicting a rise in home prices in 2023.

It seems the housing market is making clear what it needs to cool down: higher mortgage rates.

The strength in the housing market is an unwelcome development in the Federal Reserve’s fight to lower inflation to 2%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke last year about the need for a "reset" in the housing market. To the extent the Fed’s tweaking of interest rates is meant to help balance the market, the evidence so far in 2023 is that a rate of 6% is too low. To keep the economy from overheating, mortgage rates around 6.5% — their closing level on Friday — get closer to the mark.

 Continue Reading at Bloomberg.com
subscription may be required

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From Fortune

Zillow says the home price correction is winding down—here’s what 28 other forecast models have to say

BY LANCE LAMBERT
February 13, 2023 at 11:18 PM MST

Almost every month for the past year Zillow has revised its 12-month home price outlook downward. That finally changed on Monday.

Heading forward, Zillow economists now expect U.S. home prices to rise 0.5% between January 2023 and January 2024. That’s slightly improved from its previous 12-month outlook of a 1.1% decline.

This upward revision by Zillow, coupled with slightly improved mortgage purchase application data, is why Fortune once again tracked down the latest home price forecasts from 29 of the nation’s leading real estate researchers. Among those forecasters, six expect U.S. home prices to grow or remain flat in 2023, while the other 23 believe U.S. home prices have further to fall. (You can find our prior forecast round-up here).

Realtor.com: The economics team at Realtor.com predicts that the median price of existing homes will rise 5.4% in 2023 while mortgage rates average 7.4%.

Home.LLC: The firm predicts U.S. home prices will rise 4% in 2023

CoreLogic: The real-estate data firm predicts that U.S. home prices will rise 3% between December 2022 and December 2023. (Here is CoreLogic's latest risk assessment for the nation's 392 largest regional housing markets.)

NAR: The trade group projects that existing home prices are poised to rise 1.2% in 2023 while mortgage rates will average 6.3%.

Zillow: Economists at the home listing site forecast that U.S. home values will rise 0.5% between January 2023 and January 2024. Below is their regional outlook.

Continue Reading at Fortune.com
subscription may be required

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John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

In Contract Last Week // 2/06 - 2/12/2023

From Monday February 6 thru Sunday February 12 , 17 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 3/16/2023)

1 was listed at $399,900
9 from $635,000 to $815,000
7 from $1,179,000 to $1,950,000

An active week for buyers and sellers across a wide range of foothills home prices

They also ran the gamut of Days on Market, from 0 to 249 DOM
7 homes went to contract in 0 to 3 DOM
3 went in 5 - 10 DOM
2 went in 29 & 67 DOM
5 took 104 - 119 - 170 - 171 & 249 days to find a buyer                                                                                                                                               
It's no secret that the most desirable homes usually sell quickly and the others take longer. Why - some homes are unique, special, be it the style, features, floorplan, whatever, and can take a while to find a buyer looking for that special spiral staircase
- or after being on the market for a long time a recent price cut has finally made a home more attractive (the right price can cure many ills) - and while they've known this for some time from its wide spread coverage in the media, once buyers get here and go out to  look at homes they see how little there is to pick from and realize that if they really want to buy a home in the Catalina Foothills they may, and probably will, have to be more flexible and maybe even start considering how unique and fun it could be to have their very own spiral staircase.

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

Sold in the last 2 weeks

Homes sold in the last 2 weeks are the result of deals that were made from around early December to mid January (Updated Feb 11, 2023) 

Listed	Sold	DOM
309,990	305,000	31
349,000	370,000	2
398,000	398,000	22
460,000	439,000	30
575,000	575,000	22
615,000	610,000	3
690,000	675,000	30
799,000	700,000	108
745,000	715,000	63
855,000	835,000	57
1,175,000	900,000	253
859,900	914,000	4
940,000	934,000	28
1,250,000	990,000	72
1,500,000	1,300,000	77
1,475,000	1,467,180	0
1,595,000	1,480,000	46
1,795,000	1,650,000	8
5,500,000	4,000,000	103

19 Homes Sold
Link expires 3/13/2023)

The median sums for that group are;
MSP - $835,000
MDOM - 31
Sold/ Original List Price Ratio - 97.83%

Actual DOM are all over the place and, not surprisingly, where DOM are higher the sold price is often lower, relative to the list price  - though most of the homes listed for less than $1.0m sold at or fairly close to list price - and 2 sold over list. While, mostly, the homes listed for more than $1.0M sold for quite a bit less than list price.

And for the moment, ignoring the severe lack of inventory, these latest sales are looking a bit more like what a normal market looks like. A market where one side, sellers or buyers, don't hold all the cards, and are therefore negotiating to reach agreement. 
But given how quickly homes went to contract last week I wouldn't be surprised to see them sell closer to list price, with less give and take negotiating, than the 19 shown above. We shall see.

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 1/30 - 2/5/2023

From Monday January 30 thru Sunday February 5 , 13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 3/10/2023)

4 were listed from $367,400 to $565,000
7 from $649,000 to $999,500
2 at $1,165,000 & 1,299,999

and the lucky 13 went to contract in a speedy 13 MDOM
MDOM - median days on market

And during that same week there were 15 new listings and 13  of them  went to contract in 3 - 6 DOM.    New listings going to contract that quickly is a pretty good sign of a market that is hungry for more homes for sale.

The week before last, 1/23 - 1/29/2023, they went to contract in just 11 MDOM, let's see what happens this week.

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

January home sales, then and now

Pretty straight forward stuff, sales data for each January from 2018 - 2023 for single family homes Sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 / 85750)

	# Homes Sold	MSRP	DOM	% SP/ OLP
Jan 2023	38	$707,500	29	94.34%
Jan 2022	66	$710,000	12	100%
Jan 2021	85	$638,000	17	98.3%
Jan 2020	55	$577,000	30	96.94%
Jan 2019	50	$508,000	61	95.97%
Jan 2018	52	$537,000	35	95.6%

being neck n' neck with last Januarys sold price makes this January look pretty darn good, but, wild guess, I'm guessing that the small price gap for January will widen as the months go by

Thanks for stopping by
Please get in touch if you would like my help navigating the Catalina Foothills market 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 1/23 - 1/29/2023

From Monday January 23 thru Sunday January 29, 14 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 3/2/2023)

10 were priced from $615,000 to $950,000
 4 from $1,400,000 to $2,250,000

Conspicuous by their absence - not a single home priced less than $600k went to contract

Also worth mentioning - the 14 that did go to contract did so in 11 median DOM - quite a drop from recent weeks when, for the 2 week period of 1/9 - 1/22,  27 homes went to contract in 41 median DOM

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 1/16 - 1/22/2023

From Monday January 16 thru Sunday January 22, 18 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 2/25/2023)

 2 were priced at $349,000 & $575,000
11 from $600,000 to $850,000
 5 from $1,050,000 to $1,795,000

what difference a week makes,
in the week before last there were just 10 contracts and in the 2 weeks before that there were only 14
Let's call it a slow start to the new year🤞

 

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 1/9 - 1/15/2023

From Monday January 9 thru Sunday January 15, 10 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 2/20/2023)

3 were priced from $309,990 to $549,000
4 from $675,000 to $859,900
3 from $1,195,000 to $1,600,000
median DOM is 37 for this group 

Not awful, but nothing to shout about
During the same week last year 19 homes went to contract
During the first 17 days of 2021 46 homes went to contract
During the first 19 days of 2020 57 homes went to contract

Do the math, 2023 comes in dead last

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

the times they are a changing

Recent List & Sold Prices / Catalina Foothills Homes / January 2023

The following are the Listed and Sold Prices of the 14 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from January 1 - January 15, 2023

I hope that keeping up with Listed/Sold posts and other market info posted to this blog helps you get a sense of where the Foothills market is now and perhaps shines a bit of light on where it may be going.

Caveat #1, The Listed/Sold reports are a snapshot of recent sales during a short 15 day time period and are just one piece of the puzzle that, on their own, are not intended for anyone to rely on as to where the market is or where it may be going.
Caveat #2, while the sales figures shown are for homes sold in the last 15 days the contracts for those sales were made approx 30 to 60 days ago. E.g., sales closing from 1/1 - 1/15 likely went to contract from around early November to mid December and therefore reflects the market as it was back then.

 

Listed	Sold
385,900	352,000
550,000	545,000
599,000	550,000
625,000	600,000
649,000	630,000
650,000	650,000
785,000	763,750
825,000	825,000
850,000	780,000
895,000	850,000
1,400,000	1,274,500
1,550,000	1,500,000
2,100,000	1,900,000
2,250,000	1.900,000

 

See the sold listings for the 14 homes sold  (link expires 2/16/2023)

  0  sold for over list price
  2 (14+%) sold at list price
12 (85+%) sold for less than list price

Quite a different picture from just 2 months ago when more homes sold for list and over list price

And night & day from the market in May 2022

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract the last 2 weeks, 12/26/2022 - 1/08/2023

this post replaces and updates a prior "in contract ... " post dated Jan 6, 2023 that I discovered had incorrect info and has now been deleted.
John Schneider

From Monday December 26 thru Sunday January 8, 14 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 2/13/2023)

4 were priced from $350,000 to $575,000
5 from $600,000 to $965,000
5 from $1,100,000 to $5,500,000

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

the ups and downs of the market

An at-a-glance look at Catalina Foothills single family home sales for the last 2 years / Q1 2021 - Q4 2022 / Tucson, AZ 85718 / 85750

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For more detail, scroll down to or click >> 2022 home sales, the numbers

Thanks for stopping by,

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

2022 home sales, the numbers

the following are 2022 Quarterly home sales numbers for the Catalina Foothills market,  85718 / 85750

	# Homes Sold	MSP	DOM	List/Sold Ratio
Q1	207	750,000	6	100%
Q2	208	795,000	5	101.88%
Q3	157	775,000	9	98.57%
Q4	140	741,250	20.5	96.44%

*Q4 figures updated 1/07/2023

The big takeaway, Q4 MSP is the lowest it's been this year - now down -6.76% from its high in Q2. Likewise the # of homes sold - down -32.7% from Q2 - DOM up +310% from Q2.

Q2 was the last hurrah for the super red-hot market and now (with hindsight) we can see clearly that we are transitioning to something else. There are lots of theories out there on what that something else is...... Me, I don't predict, but if I did I wouldn't do it in this muddy market. 

Just 2 weeks ago I reported that the Q4  MSP was down -3.44% from Q2.  And it was. And I expected that it would end the year, more or less, at around -3.44%. But now, just 2 weeks later, the Q4 MSP is down -6.76%. Why, how? because the MSP of the homes that sold during the last 2 weeks of Q4, from 12/16 - 12/31, sold at a MSP of $632,750, thereby dragging down the MSP for Q4 to $741,250 from the $772,500 that it was 2 weeks ago. 

On the bright side the yearly MSP for 2022 is way higher than any other year on record

2022 - $770,000 
2021 - $695,000 
2020 - $567,050
2019 - $495,000
2018 - $485,000
2017 - $445,000
2016 - $417,250
2015 - $429,975
2014 - $425,000
2013 - $413,500
2012 - $390,000
2011 - $400,000
2010 - $411,618
2009 - $438,250
2008 - $520,000
2007 - $540,643
2006 - $570,000
2005 - $515,000
2004 - $408,000
2003 - $352,000
2002 - $322,500
2001 - $305,000
2000 - $290,000

 Happy New Year!

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

The housing market is in a winter freeze ...

says Realtor.com Sr. Economist George Ratiu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=et5DJ_Gt8L0

Much of what George says is also true here in the Catalina Foothills market.

• high mortgage interest rates combined with high list prices, plus the highly inflated cost of everyday goods and services have priced many buyers out of the market. Yet sale prices are staying high due to the continuing shortage of homes for sale.  And the continuing shortage of homes for sale is exacerbated by would-be sellers not wanting to trade their current home and low rate mortgage, for a hard to find high priced home with a much higher rate mortgage. 

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 12/19 - 12/25/2022

From Monday December 19 thru Sunday December 25, 7 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/27/2023)

1 was priced at $385,900
5 from $695,000 to $895,000
1 at $1,595,000

Ho Ho Ho! 7 sellers & 7 buyers had their Holiday dreams come true

Happy Holidays!

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Foothills)

in contract last week, 12/12 - 12/18/2022

From Monday December 12 thru Sunday December 18, 11single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/22/2023)

4 were priced $545,000 to $595,000
6 from $625,000 to $850,000
1 at $1,050,000

11 contracts, not bad, better than the week before

Happy Holidays to all

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Waiting for Home Prices to Drop? Bad Strategy

 Bloomberg

By Alexis Leondis

December 13, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST

With mortgage rates  retreating from their highest since 2002 and the US housing market cooling, some buyers are expecting to get a deal next year instead of having to contend with sky-high home prices. Unfortunately, that’s just wishful thinking.

Although most economists think rates have peaked — or close to it — the consensus is that rates will hover around 6.5% or 7% for 30-year fixed mortgages for the foreseeable future.

And on home prices, there’s no reason to think we’ll see big declines any time soon. I surveyed half a dozen economists to find out where home prices are headed in 2023. By and large, most are anticipating prices on average to stay within 5% of where they are now.

One of the most bearish scenarios foresees a 20% drop in prices in 2023. But even analysts who expect a drop of that magnitude think it would be spread out over several years.

That’s little consolation for those who had hoped a big decline in home prices could soften the blow of mortgage rates that have doubled over the last 10 months. Consider this: To keep mortgage payments at the historical share of household income (about 18%), home values would need to drop 39% from where they are currently, according to Zillow.

Continue reading on Bloomberg
may require a subscription

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As noted in yesterdays post - Foothills Q4 median sold prices are down 3.44% from their peak in Q2 of this year - not terrible, but we'll see where it goes from here. And a good time to see where it goes is right around the corner, the beginning of what has traditionally been our busiest season kicks off in January and runs into May.

And Jan - May is our busy season because 2 things occur- there are more buyers and more sellers in the market. More buyers arrive to buy homes while enjoying our wonderful winter/spring weather and, traditionally, more sellers list their homes for sale during that time because there are more buyers in the market. Supply & Demand.

But if there are too few homes for sale it won't be a very busy busy season. And even now, before the season has begun, there are not enough. And so far there are no signs that a large number of sellers are going to list their homes. And without a sizable increase in inventory there will be more competition for the too small supply of homes which I imagine will keep prices high and once again prove frustrating for buyers. 

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

heads up on Q4 prices & DOM

While there's still 2 weeks to go before Q4 wraps up the year there's nothing to say that we can't take a peek at where median sold prices and days on market are as we head to the finish line. 
The following Q4 results are based on single family home sales from 10/1/2022 - 12/15/2022

From their peak in Q2 median sold prices are down 3.44% in Q4

From their low in Q2 DOM are up 300% in Q4

The beginning of what has traditionally been our busiest season kicks off in January and runs into May. What with Covid we haven't had a normal winter/spring market since 2019, with an awful lot of ups/downs and changes since then, so it will be interesting and telling to see how things go in the, hopefully, more normal upcoming winter/spring market. Being the busiest time the Jan - May period often sets the tone of the market for the rest of the year and beyond.

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 12/5 - 12/11/2022

From Monday December 5 thru Sunday December 11 / just 6 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/12/2023) 

1 listed at $525,000
5 from $649,000 to $999,500
6, that's it!

Wondering, is it the Holidays or the market or just one of those weeks that come along every now and then.

Last year at this time it was also the Holiday season and 31 single family homes went to contract in the 2 weeks from12/6 - 12/19 - that was 2 weeks instead of 1, but with 5 times as many contracts. 

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

More from Fortune on where home prices are headed

 

BY LANCE LAMBERT

November 29, 2022 at 5:19 PM MST

In June, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that the overheated U.S. housing market—which saw U.S. home prices rise over 40% in just over two years—needed a “reset.” And higher mortgage rates, he said, would slowly bring “balance” back to the market.

“We saw [home] prices moving up very, very strongly for the last couple of years. So that changes now… I’d say if you are a homebuyer, somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together,” Powell said.

While Powell was unsure what the Fed’s housing “reset” would mean for home prices, Fortune speculated it meant prices would fall. It looks like we were right.

According to the latest Case-Shiller report published on Tuesday, U.S. home prices fell another 0.8% in September. That marks the third consecutive monthly home price decline since Powell’s June statement. Prior to 2022, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index hadn’t published a month-over-month decline since the housing crash bottomed out in 2012.

This latest Case-Shiller report—which found a 2.2% price decline in U.S. homes since June—means we’ve moved into the second-biggest home price correction of the post–World War II era. On paper, it’s tied with the 2.2% drop between May 1990 and April 1991; however, given that the index is a three-month average, we know the October numbers will surpass that mark. That said, it’s still far below the 26% peak-to-trough decline that occurred between 2007 and 2012.

Continue Reading All About it

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Right now the Catalina Foothills single family home market appears to be tilting down. There are fewer sales, more days on market (DOM) and fewer homes selling for list or over-list prices.  To me, for now, this appears to be a market that is correcting its course. Correcting from the unsustainable super-hot market that took off in January 2021 and burned bright and hot til several months ago, when it began to burn less brightly.  Fewer homes selling, longer DOM and lower Sold/List Price Ratios are key indicators of a cooling market. Lower prices often follow. But where it goes from here is anyone's guess. 

2022 Monthly Sold Numbers

2022	# Homes Sold	Median Sold Price	DOM	Sold/List Price Ratio
January	66	$710,000	5	100%
February	53	$715,000	5	100%
March	88	$796,669	5	100%
April	77	$750,000	4	103.23%
May	66	$818,000	5	101.26%
June	65	$811,000	5	101.39%
July	52	$830,000	6	99.75%
August	51	$840,000	10	99%
September	52	$710,000	13	97.49
October	44	$737,000	14	97.22%
November	48	$822,500	20	98.12%

Yep, not a typo, the MSP for November is $822,500

Meanwhile November 2022 sold prices are UP rather than DOWN yet days on market numbers keep climbing even though inventory remains very tight - as shown on the latest Market Snapshot numbers. Nevertheless, I wouldn't bet a nickel on just one months' worth of numbers.

All of the data is based on sales thru the MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona) and represents all the homes sold by all Realtors® in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (zips - 85718 & 85750)

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

they were way over due

and I have finally updated the Market Snapshot &  Just Sold

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 11/28 - 12/04/2022

From Monday November 28 thru Sunday December 4 / 21 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/06/2023)

 6 were listed from $500,000 to $599,000
10 from $600,000 to $825,000
 5 from $1,125,000 to $3,499,000

55 MDOM for the above contracts 

... no-end in sight high interest rates, wobbly stock market, high inflation, mediocre (at best) economic outlook and, despite all that, the Catalina Foothills flips 21 homes, across all price points, into contract. Last week I happily mentioned that 25 homes went to contract during the previous 2 weeks and now, with more good news, we have 21 contracts in one week. 

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

what'll it be, 85718 or 85750 (December 2022)

This is an update of a blog I originally wrote and posted in 2015. Then in January 2022 I updated it and posted it a 2nd time and now, since it is still relevant, I'm recycling it again. 

This new version is updated here and there, mostly regarding the data for home sales. 

The Catalina Foothills is divided into two zip codes, 85718 and 85750, with Craycroft Rd the east/west dividing line between the two - 718 on the west side and 750 east of Craycroft

Most of the buyers I meet have a preference for one or the other or they quickly develop a preference as they investigate the two areas.  And aside from the homes that are for sale in each zip their preference is often based on the look, feel, geographic, topographic, tempo and convenience features of the two areas - which are fairly distinct.

85718 is more developed, with more plazas and a more diverse selection of restaurants, bars, boutiques, shopping and, some would say, more pizzazz.  718 is also closer to Banner Medical Center, The University of Arizona and to downtown Tucson.  And if you’re looking for an older adobe home or a Joesler, you are, with few exceptions, talking about 718. 718 is where John Murphey and Josias Joesler first established the Catalina Foothills Estates, the very first development in the Catalina Foothills in the 1930’s. 718 is also home to many more gated communities than 750.

85750 came later and has its own charms and appeal. With its main shopping, restaurant and retail plaza at one location, at Kolb & Sunrise, it is less developed, less busy with fewer vehicles coming and going and has a calmer, more tranquil atmosphere than 718. For recreation and rejuvenation 750  is home to the hard to beat combination of  Sabino Canyon, Canyon Ranch and Ventana Canyon Golf &  Racquet Club.

And beyond that there are also price differences between the two zips, with more higher priced homes in 85718. And, in general, you may get a bit more home for your money in 750. Though, with the crazy market we've had, who's to say. 

Below on the left side is 85718 with a grand total of 67 single family homes for sale & on the right is 85750 with 51 for sale today, 12/5/2022.

When this post originally appeared in 2015 there were 206 homes listed for sale in 85718 and 192 in 85750..No kidding, the days when you could find a home that you liked, sleep on it, and sleep on it again, and it would still be there in the morning. Now, ???.

Here are the important numbers for 85718 & 85750.
The number of homes sold in the last 6 months (6/1/2022 - 11/30/2022) along with median sold prices and DOM.

85750
162 Homes Sold // $722,500 MSP // 9 DOM

85718
151 Homes Sold // $889,000 MSP // 7 DOM
MSP 23% higher in 718 over 750

Looking back to the same 6 month period in 2019 
MSP $549,000 in 718 
MSP $445,000 in 750
MSP 23% higher in 718 over 750

One more
In 718 MSP rose from $549,000 in 2019 to $889,000 in 2022 - a 61.9% increase, let's call it 62%
In 750 MSP rose from $445,000 in 2019 to $722,500 in 2022 - a 62.3% increase,  ditto

So while median sold prices may be different from each other in 718 & 750, overall price appreciation has been marching in lockstep across the foothills.

85718 & 85750, they’re both in the Catalina Foothills but the look, feel, tempo, home styles and prices of each offer a variety of different options for foothills living. If you’re new to town be sure to check out both areas.

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract the last 2 weeks, 11/14 - 11/27/2022

From Monday November 14 thru Sunday November 27 -  25 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - that's 85718/85750 (link expires 12/29/2022)

 6  were listed from $350,000 to $585,000
13 from $600,000 to $999,000
 6  from $1,000,000 to $2,250,000

40 MDOM for the 25 contracts

last year at this time, when the market was getting hotter by the day, 34 homes went to contract 
v. now, with 25 contracts covering a wide range of prices at a time with much weaker economic environment, looks to me like a pretty good showing that may be a vote of confidence from buyers. We'll soon see.

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Fortune reports on the latest from CoreLogic research on where home prices are headed

This is the 3rd in a series of articles I've posted from Fortune reporting on CoreLogics outlook on where home prices are headed. 
In previous articles, which started in March, CoreLogic was not overly concerned about where home prices were headed as they identified just 13 markets, out of 385, that had a high to very high risk of declining prices. In May that number jumped to 70 markets and now in November, with 354 markets in high or very high risk territory, it's a whole new ballgame.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's Fortune's summation of CoreLogic's November findings 

The November assessment finds 354 markets have a greater than 50% chance of notching a negative year-over-year reading (i.e. markets in either the "high" or "very high" risk groups) over the next 12 months. That's up from 335 markets in October that had a greater than 50% chance of falling home prices. In August, there were 125 markets at risk. In July, there were 98 markets at risk. In June, 45 markets were at risk. And in May, just 26 markets (see chart above) fell into those "high" or "very high" risk camps.

Read all about it
Where are home prices are headed in 2023—this map shows CoreLogic’s revised outlook for 392 housing markets

BYLANCE LAMBERT

November 22, 2022 at 2:56 AM MST

 

When a buttoned-up Fed economist says the U.S. housing market has entered into a “difficult [housing] correction”, it’d be wise to believe them. When it comes from the lips of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, it’s more of a warning. 

Powell is right: Not only does housing activity continue to plummet, but U.S. home prices are falling for the first-time since 2012.

Unlike the 2000s housing correction, which saw U.S. home prices fall 27% between 2006 and 2012, this ongoing housing correction isn’t underpinned by bad loans nor by a supply glut. Instead, this correction is driven by what Fortune calls “pressurized affordability.” The Pandemic Housing Boom‘s 43% run-up in U.S. home prices combined with spiking mortgage rates has simply pushed affordability beyond what many borrowers can stomach.

The only levers available to depressurize affordability are for either mortgage rates or home prices to fall. In recent months, we’ve seen the latter.

Continue Reading All About it

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Here in the Catalina Foothills sold  prices are up or down depending on the time period being compared
MSP = Median Sold Prices 

MSP's this year
Feb/Mar 2022 - $765,000
Apr/May 2022 - $780,000 +2%
Jun/Jul 2022 -   $825,000 +5.76%
Aug/Sep 2022 - $765,000 -7.27%
Oct/Nov 2022 -  $780,000 +1.96%

Comparing median sold prices from their high point in Jun/Jul  to now, Oct/Nov, shows a -5.4% price drop.
While CoreLogic notes the following regarding price drops from their high point.

Nationally, home prices are down 1.3% from their 2022 peak. At least that’s according to the lagged Case-Shiller reading through August. However, markets like Austin and Reno are down 10.2% and 8.4%, respectively, while markets like Des Moines and Baltimore remain at their all-time highs. (Here’s the shift in the nation’s 400 biggest markets.)

 
Bimonthly prices this year V. last year

Feb/Mar 2021 - $661,000
Feb/Mar 2022 - $765,000 +15.7%

Apr/May 2021 - $700,000
Apr/May 2022 - $780,000 +11.4%

Jun/Jul 2021 -  $715,000
Jun/Jul 2022 -  $825,000 +15%

Aug/Sept 2021 - $680,500
Aug/Sept 2022 - $765,000 +12+%

Oct/Nov 2021 - $695,000
Oct/Nov 2022 - $780,000 +12+%

While sold prices have slid a bit in recent months, when compared to last year sold prices are solidly UP this year over last year. they're UP somewhere between 11% - 15% over last year.

Where we go from here is unknown. And I agree with the statements expressed in the article;
The Pandemic Housing Boom‘s 43% run-up in U.S. home prices combined with spiking mortgage rates has simply pushed affordability beyond what many borrowers can stomach.

and there are just two options, either home prices or mortgage rates must fall. What else is there? 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract last week, 11/7 - 11/13/2022

From Monday November 7 thru Sunday November 13 - 13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 12/19/2022)

5 were listed from $400,000 to $595,000
4 from $750,000 to $969,000
4 from $1,200,000 to $2,495,000

and though they took a little longer,
36 median DOM v. 19 DOM the week before last,
homes in all price ranges found a buyer last week

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Recent List & Sold Prices / Catalina Foothills Homes / November 2022

The following are the Listed and Sold Prices of the 22 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from November 1 - November 15, 2022.

I hope that keeping up with Listed/Sold posts and other market info posted to this blog helps you get a sense of where the Foothills market is currently and perhaps shines a bit of light on where it may be going.

Caveat #1, The Listed/Sold reports are a snapshot of recent sales during a short 15 day time period and are just a piece of the puzzle that, on their own, are not intended for anyone to bank on as to where the market is currently or where it may be going.
Caveat #2, while the sales figures shown are for homes sold in the last 15 days the contracts for those sales were signed on the dotted line approx 30 to 60 days prior to when the sale closed. E.g., sales closing from 11/1 - 11/15 likely went to contract from around early September to mid October and therefore reflect the market as it was approx 30 to 60 days ago.
Green Sold prices identify the homes sold for over list. 

 

Listed	Sold
565,000	554,000
670,000	650,000
674,900	668,000
695,000	720,000
700,000	736,000
700,000	700,000
785,000	770,000
799,000	799,000
845,000	800,000
845,000	870,000
894,900	888,000
975,000	900,000
995,000	995,000
1,085,000	985,000
1,200,000	1,200,000
1,295,000	1,305,000
1,449,500	1,395,000
1,545,000	1,450,000
1,750,000	1,700,000
1,800,000	1,740,000
3,700,000	3,381,360.93

 

See the sold listings for the 22 homes sold  (link expires 12/16/2022)

  4 (18+%) sold for over list price (1 more than in October Report)
  4 (18+%) sold at list price
14 (63+%) sold for less than list price

Compared to the October Report - fewer homes sold at list price & way more sold for less than list.
+ a big jump in DOM, from 17 DOM in the October report to 35 DOM for this group.  However, with the Sold/Listed price ratio at 97.14%, prices are holding up pretty well. Speaking of which, BAM!! the median sold price for the 22 sold is a whopping $894,000, UP higher than any previous Listed/Sold report - but, caveat-caveat, it is just 22 sales in 15 days. 

Click to Octobers numbers, when 22 homes also sold in 15 days.

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

From CNN Business; It’s a terrible time to buy a house. Here’s what to know if you have to do it anyway

By Anna Bahney, CNN Business

Published 7:01 AM EST, Sat November 12, 2022

There is no sugarcoating it: This is a terrible time to buy a home.

Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed rate loan are now hovering above 7%, more than 4 percentage points higher than a year ago. That has slashed a typical buyer’s purchasing power by 14%, according to Black Knight, a mortgage data company.

With fewer people able or interested in buying now, home sales have been falling. Just 16% of people say now is a good time to buy a home, a record low, according to a monthly survey conducted by Fannie Mae in October.

Still, that’s barely made a dent in home prices, which soared to new heights during the pandemic and are now just easing off of all-time highs.

Another thing tamping down sales is stubbornly low inventory of available homes for sale, said Jackie Lafferty, a real estate agent with Baird & Warner Real Estate in Chicago.

“It is something I’ve never seen a combination of, this lack of inventory and higher interest rates,” Lafferty said. “There is no motivation for people to move unless they have to.”

But whether people need to move because of a new job, a divorce, an addition to the family or they simply don’t want to give up after years of trying to buy a home, there are still buyers out there.

“Even if sales slow down, real estate doesn’t stop,” said Lafferty. “People need a place to live.”

For those who are pressing on, here are a few ways you can take some of the sting out of buying a home.

Continue reading article

which goes on to discuss, propose various mortgage strategies to help buyers navigate the high rates
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Many of the things noted in the article that are affecting the national real estate market - high interest rates, falling home sales, still high home prices and low inventory - are also playing a role in our Catalina Foothills market, with at least one big difference,

Toward the end the article notes that, according to a recent report from the National Association of Realtors 97% of homebuyers over the past year needed to finance their home.

Whereas, in the Catalina Foothills, of the 671 homes sold so far this year, 43% (271 homes) were cash purchases. Which I believe has lessened and may continue to lessen the damaging effects of high mortgage rates on our market and should also tend to make a cash offer even more attractive than it has ever been.  Let's hope!

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 10/31 - 11/ 06/2022

From Monday October 31 thru Sunday November 6,  10 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 12/09/2022)

3 were priced from $475,000 to $499,000
4 from $620,000 to $825,000
3 from $1,195,000 to $2,150,000

they went to contract in 19.5 median DOM

At normal times that would be a pretty weak-week for contracts but with circumstances as they are, high mortgage rates, high home prices, volatile stock market and few homes to choose from, I think it was a pretty good week.

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Markets go up, markets go down

And right now the Catalina Foothills single family home market is tilting down as evidenced by fewer sales, lower sold prices, more days on market before homes sell, and with fewer homes selling for list or over-list prices.  To me, for now, this appears to be a market that is correcting its course. Correcting its course from the unsustainable super-hot market that took off in January 2021 and burned bright and hot til several months ago when it began to cool.  Where it goes from here is anyone's guess.

2022 Monthly Sold Numbers

2022	# Homes Sold	Median Sold Price	DOM	Sold/List Price Ratio
October	44	$737,000	14	97.22%
September	52	$710,000	13	97.49%
August	51	$840,000	10	99%
July	52	$830,000	6	99.75%
June	65	$811,000	5	101.39%
May	66	$818,000	5	101.26%
April	77	$750,000	4	103.23%
March	88	$796,669	5	100%
February	53	$715,000	5	100%
January	66	$710,000	5	100%

 

Meanwhile October 2022 sold prices are appreciably higher and days on market numbers are still lower than any past October of pre-covid years.

	# Homes Sold	Median Sold Price	DOM	Sold/List Price Ratio
October 2022	44	$737,000	14	97.22%
October 2021	62	$685,000	7	99.4%
October 2020	99	$525,000	7	98.75%
October 2019	63	$500,000	22	95.76%
October 2018	61	$435,000	23	97.69%

All of the data is based on sales thru the MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona) and represents all the homes sold by all Realtors® in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (zips - 85718 & 85750)

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 10/24 - 10/30/2022

From Monday October 24 thru Sunday October 30,  14 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 12/01/2022)

2 were priced at $389,900 & $549,900
5 from $674,900 to $799,000
7 from $1,050,000 to $1,750,000

the lower-end of the market continues to struggle under the weight of 7% mortgages while, somehow, the mid and particularly the upper-end continue to flourish.

44 homes went to contract in October
(link expires 12/01/2022)

4 were priced from $389,900 to $565,000 
21 from $670,000 to $995,000
19 from  $1,050,000 to $6,788,000

Thanks for stopping by,

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 10/17 - 10/23/2022

From Monday October 17 thru Sunday October 23,  14 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 11/25/2022)

1 was priced at $565,000
6 from $670,000 to $895,500
7 from $1,295,000 to $2,795,000

Where did that come from, such an unexpectedly strong week for contracts, after very weak previous weeks, - there were just 6 contracts the week of 10/9 and 8 the week of 10/3. And for both weeks combined there were just 3 contracts priced over $1mil. Now suddenly last week 14 go to contract with 7 of them priced over $1mil, from $1,295,000 to $2,795,000. Who knows, not me. 

Wondering if last weeks numbers were just a one-off thing, and not willing to wait til next week to find out what happened this week, I pulled the contracts for so far this week, barely 3 days, and already there are 10 in contract with 5 of them listed for $1mil+..Really! 😁

Thanks for stopping by,

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 

Open Houses are back in vogue

After all but disappearing from early spring of 2020 to very recently the Sunday Open House is reappearing.

Looking for an Open House in the Catalina Foothills?

Click >> Open House or the Open House link on the home page of my website where you will see all the Open House listings in the Catalina Foothills, and only in the Catalina Foothills. 

As we get into our in-season season I expect we will see more and more Open Houses in the coming weeks, months ...

Have a good one, 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Recent List & Sold Prices / Catalina Foothills Homes / October 2022

The following are the List and Sold Prices of the 22 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from October 6 - October 20, 2022

 

Listed	Sold
369,000	362,500
399,900	399,900
500,000	500,000
525,000	525,000
560,000	560,000
589,000	574,000
598,000	615,000
600,000	580,000
629,000	615,000
700,000	675,000
750,000	775,000
765,000	765,000
799,000	765,262
850,000	792,000
889,500	889,500
900,000	900,000
919,900	919,900
989,900	1,030,000
1,050,000	950,000
1,100,000	907,000
1,350,000	1,200,000
1,795,000	1,795,000

See >>> 22 homes sold  (link expires 11/20/2022)

 3 (13.6%) sold for over list price
10 (45.4%) sold at list price
 9 ( 41%) sold for less than list price

The market continues to cool. Fewer homes selling for over list or at list and more selling for under list. 

But they're still selling pretty darn quickly, they went to contract in 17 median DOM, longer than previous months but still quicker than anytime pre -Covid. 

The MSP for the 22 sold is $765,131.. down from Q2 MSP $795,000 / Q3 MSP $775,000

Click >>>  September Listed/Sold numbers to compare Septembers numbers to todays.

 

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

it's finally happening

In Bloomberg this morning

Bloomberg

US Home Prices Now Posting Biggest Monthly Drops Since 2009

By Prashant Gopal

Home prices in the US have taken a turn and are now posting the biggest monthly declines since 2009.

 

And a Bloomberg Quick Take video with Scarlet Fu titled,              US housing prices are finally falling

 

IN CASE THE LINK IS NOT LINKING >>>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-09-29/us-housing-prices-are-finally-falling

         ---------------------------------------------------------------------

This is not a surprise, as I mentioned in an October 3rd post:

... a drop [in prices] was inevitable given the withering economic environment we are in. Frankly, I'm surprised prices didn't drop sooner and further. And I believe they didn't because, as I mentioned the other day... "the desirable homes are still going quickly due to a shortage of desirable homes for sale - supply & demand flexing its muscles - which is also helping to prop up sale prices which, given the withering economic environment we are in, is quite extraordinary". 

 

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

 

in contract last week, 10/09 - 10/16/2022

From Monday October 9 thru Sunday October 16, just 6 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 11/18/2022)

2 were priced at $485,000 & $575,000
3 from $675,000 to $975,000
1 at $6,788,000

a snails pace for contracts since September 19

Meanwhile, the number of homes listed for sale is inching UP, now at 143 single family homes for sale, yet that is still way less than the number for sale in October of normal (pre-covid) market  years

October 2019 - 273 for sale
October 2018 - 289 for sale
October 2017 - 316 for sale
October 2016 - 397 for sale

But, be thankful, appreciably better than April 2022 with a grand total of 63 for sale 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 10/03 - 10/09/2022

From Monday October 3 thru Sunday October 9, just 8 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 11/11/2022)

0 none were priced under $600,000
6 were priced from $700,000 to $995,000
2 at $1,545,000 and $1550,000

and that's it, pretty slow going

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

The Crazy Housing Market

A few times in the last few months I've wondered where this crazy housing market is headed - most recently at the end of a post on October 3rd  I said "...I'm thinking, hoping, the Foothills fall/winter real estate season is going to shine a brighter light on where the Foothills market is headed"

The Bloomberg article linked to below addresses the issues facing the crazy national market, which strongly resembles what we're seeing here in the foothills, and boils it down to what I think is a good explanation of what is going on and how and why did we get here and offers some possibilities about what the future may hold. 

from Bloomberg (a subscription may be required)

Here’s How Weird Things Are Getting in the Housing Market

Or click the link below to listen to the podcast of the article. 
The Odd Lots Podcast titled ...
This is What 7% Mortgages Will Do To the Housing Market

Article & podcast feature James Egan, Morgan Stanley’s US housing strategist.

 

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 9/26 - 10/02/2022

From Monday September 26 - Sunday October 2, 11 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 11/04/22)

2 were priced at $415,000 & $585,000
7 from $600,000 to $995,000
2 at $1,295,000 & $1,500,000

and that's it.. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

 

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Catalina Foothills transitioning single family home market

Here's a look at the numbers for home sales, sold prices and days on market for Catalina Foothills single family homes from the 1st Q of 2021, when the red hot market emerged thru the 3rd Q of 2022 as it now transitions to something other than a red hot market. Time will tell what that something is. 

First up is the number of homes sold for up to $999,999.         Sales are down due to (take your pick) A low supply of homes for sale  + high-high list prices for those that are for sale +  whopping increases in interest rates + raging inflation + a volatile and falling stock market + in general a weak economic forecast ...

A somewhat similar scenario at the upper 7figure-end of the market + with many upper-end sales being discretionary purchases, 2nd homes, 3rd homes, don't have to have it now homes, v. buying a home to have a place to live, some upper-end buyers must be asking themselves  ... "why buy now...?"



When now, in the 3rd Q, there is a drop in median sold prices, albeit a small drop from $795,000 to $775,000, -2.5%, a drop that was inevitable given the withering economic environment we are in. Frankly, I'm surprised prices didn't drop sooner and further. And I believe they didn't because, as I mentioned the other day... "the desirable homes are still going quickly due to a shortage of desirable homes for sale - supply & demand flexing its muscles - which is also helping to prop up sale prices which, given the withering economic environment we are in, is quite extraordinary".                                                                                                              But it all went down the drain in September
in July median sold prices were $830,000         
in August median sold prices were $840,00                                 ... in September median sold prices were $710,000 - Yep $710,000 but I don't bank on one months numbers as a reliable predictor of what's ahead.

 
+ an uptick in DOM - though the current DOM, while a few days higher than the last 2 years, are WAY faster than at anytime prior to the red  hot market of the last 2 years 

 

I'm thinking, hoping, the Foothills fall/winter real estate season is going to shine a brighter light on where the Foothills market is headed.  

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract last week, 9/19 - 9/25/2022

From Monday September 19 - Sunday September 25,  13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 10/27/2022)

0 homes priced under $600k went to contract (my guess, mortgage rates pushed buyers out of the market)
9 were listed from $629,000 to $989,900
4 from $1,085,000 to $1,800,000

... they went to contract in just 10 median DOM - at the risk of repeating & repeating myself, the desirable homes are still going quickly due to a shortage of desirable homes for sale - supply & demand flexing its muscles - which is also helping to prop up sale prices which, given the withering economic environment we are in, is quite extraordinary.  

Then again, Californians keep coming, every day seeing more  California plates in the foothills. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 9/12 - 9/18/2022

From Monday September 12 - Sunday September 18,  15 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 10/21/2022)

6 were listed from $369,000 to $598,000
5 from $660,000 to $900,000
4 from $1,085,000 to $2,700,000

... and they went to contract in 18 median DOM

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

the Market Snapshot, then and now

The Market Snapshot is a basic quick-look at the current real estate market in the Catalina Foothills.
It shows the number of homes for sale, in contract and sold in the previous 30 days, with the resulting months of inventory (MOI) broken down into 8 price ranges. 

After I post the Market Snapshot I save it for future reference so, like today, I can look back at what the market was at any time since 2014 and share it. 

The following are Market Snapshots I posted this past January, March, June and September at > Market Snapshot, tracing the arc of the Catalina Foothills market from its red-hot days in January - March/April to its wanning days that started trickling in in April/May and continue thru today. 

First up is the Market Snapshot I posted on January 16, 2022 - showing a raging sellers market at most price points with the exception of $1.5 and $2.0

 

          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And a very similar market in March, with a miraculous recovery at $1.5 and $2.0

A slight increase in MOI but not all that different in June

With MOI rising across most price points we're seeing visible signs of a cooling market

The market is getting tugged in two directions.
On one hand there is still a shortage of homes for sale, which is, for now, holding up demand and prices , on the other interest rates are high and going higher as the stock market plunges - severely weakening buyers desire and ability to buy a home.

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Recent List and Sold Prices / Catalina Foothills Homes / September 2022

The following are the list and sold prices of the 17 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from September 1 - today, September 15, 2022 thru the Tucson Association of Realtors® MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona)

the green numbers are the homes that sold for over list price

Listed	Sold
439,500	439,500
480,000	470,000
599,000	572,500
625,000	597,500
600,000	612,000
625,000	619,500
695,000	625,000
729,000	694,000
775,000	720,000
770,000	745,000
793,000	775,000
999,000	1,050,000
1,100,000	1,125,000
995,000	1,125,000
1,350,000	1,500,000
1,550,000	1,650,000
2,475,000	2,300,000

 

17 homes sold 9/1 - 9/15/2022

6 (35%) sold for over list price

1 (6%) sold at list price

10 (59%) sold for less than list price

 9  (53% ) were cash sales
These 17 went to contract in 9 median DOM - so still awfully quick.

Looks like the formerly red-hot market is continuing to cool.
A higher % of homes are selling for less that list price, a lower % selling at or above list price and the above list sales are, with one exception, huddled at $1mil+ suggesting that mortgage rates are likely cutting into purchasing power at low to mid price points - and it appears that buyers at $1mil+ are finding they still need to bid above list price to get what they want. Or, at least, to get the best of what is available - and the pickings are slim - from $1.0m to $2.0m there are just 30 homes for sale. 

Click >>>  July  Listed/Sold numbers to compare them to todays numbers.

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

the green numbers are the homes that sold for over list price

Listed	Sold
439,500	439,500
480,000	470,000
599,000	572,500
625,000	597,500
600,000	612,000
625,000	619,500
695,000	625,000
729,000	694,000
775,000	720,000
770,000	745,000
793,000	775,000
999,000	1,050,000
1,100,000	1,125,000
995,000	1,125,000
1,350,000	1,500,000
1,550,000	1,650,000
2,475,000	2,300,000

 

17 homes sold 9/1 - 9/15/2022

6 (35%) sold for over list price

1 (6%) sold at list price

10 (59%) sold for less than list price

 9  (53% ) were cash sales
These 17 went to contract in 9 median DOM - so still awfully quick.

Looks like the formerly red-hot market is continuing to cool.
A higher % of homes are selling for less that list price, a lower % selling at or above list price and the above list sales are, with one exception, huddled at $1mil+ suggesting that mortgage rates are likely cutting into purchasing power at low to mid price points - and it appears that buyers at $1mil+ are finding they still need to bid above list price to get what they want. Or, at least, to get the best of what is available - and the pickings are slim - from $1.0m to $2.0m there are just 30 homes for sale. 

Click >>>  July  Listed/Sold numbers to compare them to todays numbers.

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract the last 2 weeks, 8/29 - 9/11/2022

From Monday August 29 - Sunday September 11,  36 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 10/13/2022)

12 were priced from $379,900 to $595,000
17 from $612,000 to $995,000
 7 from $1,050,000 to $2,480,000 

An active 2 weeks for anytime of year but particularly impressive for late summer in a what is supposed to be a declining market.
And with DOM rising, now up to 27 days for this group, sellers will need to be more patient while buyers take a moment to                "think about it". Imagine that!

Last year at this time a similar # of homes went to contract and the DOM had also risen, from 5 DOM to 16. And I wondered if the rise was due to the red-hot market cooling off or the usual seasonal summer slowdown. 
We now know that it was a seasonal slowdown since soon after summer the DOM dropped down to around 5 and pretty much held there until spring/summer of this year.   See last Aug/Sept contracts HERE & HERE

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

The Catalina Foothills real estate market Now

The Market Snapshot was long overdue for an update and I finally did it today.

Going thru the numbers it's obvious that the months of inventory (MOI) are higher now in almost every price range than they were earlier this year and all of last year when, for most price ranges, the MOI was often just 1 or 2 months or less - paving the way to an extreme sellers market, which is exactly what we got.

And while the MOI is higher now it is still much lower than the '6 month rule of thumb' the real estate industry uses as the benchmark of a normal balanced market. With more buyers than there are homes for sale and low MOI, technically it is still a sellers market. But with none of the frenzy, eye popping numbers and extremes of before it doesn't really feel like it. It feels like a shifting market that doesn't know which way to go.

For much of the rest of the USA Labor Day is the end of summer but not for us, aren't we lucky, we still have a few weeks to go. 
And I'm thinking, hoping, the Foothills fall/winter real estate season is going to shine a light on where the Foothills market is headed.  

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

Median Sold Prices, Q1 2021 - Q2 2022 + July-Aug 22

Median sold prices for homes sold in the Catalina Foothills in July-August 2022 are a fraction higher (+0.60%) than they were this July.  And they are 4.4% higher than they were in Q2 and 9.93% higher than they were at the height of the frenzy in Q1 of this year. 

The rate of price appreciation is surely slowing and by now may have, probably has, stopped. But thru August sold prices were holding up and were higher than any previous Q since the start of the frenzy in Q1 of 2021. 

How can that be, with higher interest rates, falling stock market and many other not so positive issues confronting us.. At least part of the reason prices are (or were) holding up is simple supply/demand. There are more buyers than there are desirable homes for sale in foothills. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

August

Amongst the many things August is known for - end of summer, back to school, ripe tomatoes, did you know 22% of Swedish boys are named August. It is also one of the slowest and possibly the slowest month of the year for Real Estate activity, that is for buyers and sellers making deals and putting homes in contract. 

But it is a pretty OK month for home sales from deals that buyers and sellers made in June and July and want to close and move in in August, to get settled and get the kids in school. PS, August is also National Back To School month. 
So let's see how sales this August stack up to August 2020 and August 2021.

August 2020
85 homes Sold / $565,000 MSP / 27 DOM

August 2021
58 homes Sold / $670,000 MSP / 5 DOM

August 2022
51 homes Sold / $840,000 MSP / 10 DOM

for August 2022
the # of homes sold is down 12% from August 2021 & 40% from August 2020
however, the MSP is UP 25% from August 2021 & UP 48.7% from August 2020 
DOM are UP 100% from August 2021 & DOWN 63% from August 2020

All together not a bad August and Cha-Ching! in just 2 years the overall MSP in the Catalina Foothills has soared almost 49% from where it was in August 2020. 

And at $840,000 August 2022's MSP is higher (not lower) than it was this / May - $818,000 / June - $811,000 / and July $825,000......... Go figure!

Enjoy your Labor Day weekend

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract last week, 8/22 - 8/28/2022

From Monday August 22 - Sunday August 28,  11 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 9/29/2022)

4 were listed from $500,000 to $580,000
4 from $679,000 to $919,900
3 from $1,150,000 to $1,750,000

12 DOM for this group

Not as impressive as the week of 8/15 - 8/21 but still pretty good for August, and with high interest rates and falling, volatile stock market.  

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 8/15 - 8/21/2022

From Monday August 15 - Sunday August 21,  17 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 9/29/2022)

5 were priced from $415,000 to $599,000
11 from $625,000 to $999,000
 1 for $1,190,000

17 in contract, in August, Huh?... looking more like March with interest rates at 2.90% and the stock market on a tear, if only - but it's August (usually one of the slowest months of the year) and they went quickly too, in 7 median DOM

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in your favorite foothills subdivision

Rather than looking at and evaluating sales data for the entire Catalina Foothills real estate market, which is quite large and diverse, the following individual snapshots focus on sales data for a variety of popular Catalina Foothills subdivisions and compare how each of them performed in the normal pre-Covid market from Jan 1, 2018 - June 30, 2019 to how they performed in the frenzied-red-hot Covid influenced market we experienced from Jan 1, 2021 - June 30, 2022. 

For reference here are the sales numbers for the entire Catalina Foothills market (85718/85750) for that time period;
2018/19 > 1,276 Sold / $490,000 MSP / 34 DOM
2021/22 > 1,377 Sold / $711,000 MSP / 6 DOM
                +8% Sold / +45% MSP / -82% DOM

Click any highlighted subdivision name to see all the homes currently for sale (if there are any) + those that are Active Contingent from the MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona).   MSP = median sold price / DOM = days on market

Here we go.

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
2018/19 > 13 Sold / $905,000 MSP / 66 DOM
2021/22 > 21 Sold / $1,425,000 MSP / 8 DOM
               +61% Sold / +57% MSP / -88% DOM
----------------------------------------------------------------

Fairfield
2018/19 > 51 Sold / $459,000 MSP / 15 DOM
2021/22 > 48 Sold / $665,000 MSP /   4 DOM
               -6% Sold / +45% MSP / -73% DOM
----------------------------------------------------------------

Pima Canyon
2018/19 > 24 Sold / $1,227,500 MSP / 123 DOM
2021/22 > 29 Sold / $1,595,000 MSP / 7 DOM
               +21% Sold / +30% MSP / -94% DOM
----------------------------------------------------------------

Shadow Hills
2018/19 > 35 Sold / $590,000 MSP / 19 DOM
2021/22 > 44 Sold / $786,000 MSP / 4 DOM
              +21% Sold / + 33% MSP / -79% DOM
----------------------------------------------------------------

La Paloma
2018/19 > 70 Sold / $448,150 MSP / 48 DOM
2021/22 > 94 Sold / $638,000 MSP /  6 DOM
              +34% Sold / +42% MSP / -87% DOM
----------------------------------------------------------------

Foothills Clusters
2018/19 > 28 Sold / $339,500 MSP / 12 DOM
2021/22 > 27 Sold / $515,000 MSP / 6 DOM
             -4% Sold / +52% MSP / -50% DOM
----------------------------------------------------------------

Skyline Bel Air
2018/19 > 39 Sold / $502,000 MSP / 43 DOM
2021/22 > 31 Sold / $751,300 MSP / 4 DOM
              -21% Sold / +50% MSP / -91% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Coronado Foothills 
2018/19 > 34 Sold / $554,000 MSP / 33 DOM
2021/22 > 37 Sold / $825,000 MSP / 5 DOM
              +9% Sold / + 49% MSP / -85% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Skyline Country Club Estates
2018/19 > 30 Sold / $735,000 MSP / 125 DOM
2021/22 > 30 Sold / $1,025,000 MSP / 11 DOM
               +/-0% Sold /+39% MSP / -91% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Alta Vista
2018/19 > 27 Sold / $780,000 MSP / 41 DOM
2021/22 > 20 Sold / $961,000 MSP / 5 DOM
              -26% Sold/ +23% MSP / -88% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Flecha Caida
2018/19 > 36 Sold / $502,500 MSP / 19 DOM
2021/22 > 32 Sold / $705,000 MSP / 12 DOM
               -11% Sold / +40% MSP / -37% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Cimarron
2018/19 > 37 Sold / $500,000 MSP / 72 DOM
2021/22 > 37 Sold / $823,900 MSP / 4 DOM
              +/-0% Sold / +65% MSP   / -94% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Ventana Country Club
2018/19 > 54 Sold / $677,000 MSP / 31 DOM
2021/22 > 58 Sold / $910,000 MSP / 6 DOM
               +7% Sold / +34% MSP / -80% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Sabino Mountain
2018/19 > 17 Sold / $436,000 MSP / 32 DOM 
2021/22 > 27 Sold / $540,000 MSP / 5 DOM
               +59% Sold / +24% MSP / -84% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Caveat, Please keep in mind the subdivisions listed represent a small sample of the many subdivisions in the Catalina Foothills and are only intended to illustrate how differently individual subdivisions performed from the overall foothills market and from other subdivisions. Also, individual homes within a subdivision can and do perform differently from other homes within the same subdivision for a variety of reasons. 

That's it for now, though I will probably add more subdivisions over the next few days. I'll list the new ones first, at the top of the list. 

Please contact me if you have a question or would like my help navigating the Catalina Foothills real estate market.
Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home